Thread by @MarkGaleotti

Col. Gen. Sergei Beseda, head of the FSB’s 5th Service, retires
A thread on what I think this means. 1/
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Just a reminder: the 5th Service, the Operational Info & International Relations Service, has other duties but especially runs agents in ex-Soviet countries and as such was meant to have a massive network in Ukraine, that largely failed to materialise in 2022 2/
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First of all, despite the reporting, I don’t actually think this is ‘punishment’ for his failures around the start of the Ukraine war. Revenge may be a dish best served cold, but 28 months later seems a tad too cold 3/

Rather, it is that he has reached the compulsory retirement age of 70 and although he could stay in post by presidential decree, where his failings come in is in that he doesn’t have the political capital to get that, even if he wants to 4/

Besides, he is not out in the cold, but is appointed an adviser to the director of the FSB, a usual sinecure. Had the govt wanted to signal displeasure, it would have foregone this courtesy. 5/

What’s important is that Beseda’s replacement is Alexei Komkov, who is a client of FSB 1st Dep Director Sergei Korolev and former head of FSB’s Internal Security (ie: he knows where the bodies are buried). 6/
fontanka.ru/2019/05/17/029/

Korolev has been meant to take over for years, his elevation stymied by a scandal, the war (and Putin’s dislike of churn in the security agency management, but also a strong ‘stop Korolev’ camp, including Beseda 7/

With Beseda gone, and Alexei Sedov, head of the 2ndService (2nd FSB service (political security and counter-terrorism ) turning 70 in August (assuming he survives the current Dagestan crisis), Korolev is likely to have the power base he needs 8/

Besides, 73-year-old Bortnikov is ill and for years has been wanting to retire. This year, surely, he’ll be granted release by Putin, and presumably Korolev will take his place. 9/

As I wrote back in 2021, Korolev will be a dangerous FSB director, active, ruthless, smart and with organised crime connections 10/
platformraam.nl/dossiers/kreml…

He may well be even more dangerous for surviving dissidents at home and abroad, not least as he will have something to prove. However, for a little silver lining… 11/

…this also marks the rise of a newer generation of security chiefs who do not have a personal relationship with Putin. They are not of his era, not necessarily of his mindset. Not for a minute is Korolev a liberal, but would he go to the wall for Putin? I’m not so sure. 12/end