Gesine Weber Profile picture
Jun 24 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
First round of French legislative elections takes place on 30 June.

What do the parties actually say on security and defence, Ukraine, and in general foreign policy? Now that they all have published their programmes, here's a short overview (Ensemble, RN, Front Populaire): 🧵🇫🇷
In general, security and defence are clearly not the central topics of this electoral campaign. Instead, parties focus on questions related to social security, work, salaries, cost of living, and immigration. The exact ideas on Europe were laid out in the EU election programmes.
Programme by Ensemble (Macron's Renaissance party and allies) on defence (1/2):
- commitment to stay in NATO and maintain nuclear deterrence (that's explicit because it is not the case for other parties); explicitly underlines that this is a "guarantee of our nation" Image
Programme by Ensemble (Macron's Renaissance party and allies) on defence (2/2):
- keeping the military planning law as agreed, and doubling the French defence budget by 2030

Link to the programme: doc.ensemble-2024.fr/programme-legi…
Programme of Rassemblement National (RN) on defence (1/2):
- preserving sovereignty of French nuclear deterrence [note: this is not questioned at the moment]
- guarantee the model of a "complete army"
- maintaining overall budget trajectory of military planning law Image
Programme of Rassemblement National (RN) on defence (2/2):
- no transfer of competences to the EU in security and defence
-give preference to weapons sells to other European states
- war in Ukraine as "threat to our collective security"

Link: rassemblementnational.fr/documents/2024…
Programme of Front Populaire on defence (1/3):
- "unfailingly" defend Ukraine "to make Putin's war of aggression fail"
- support: weapons delivery, foreign debt cancellation, seizing RUS assets in line with intl law, blue helmets to protect nuclear power plants Image
Programme of Front Populaire on defence (2/3):
- only programme with details on Gaza
- no further support for Netanyahu gov in Israel
- support ICC in cases against Hamas and Netanyahu
- immediately recognise Palestine
- embargo on weapons deliveries to Israel Image
Programme of Front Populaire on defence (3/3):
- act for liberation of hostages
- sanctions against far-right gov of Netanyahu
- call for suspension of EU-Israel association agreement
- allow organisation of elections in Palestine
- ensure respect of sovereignty of Lebanon
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More from @gesine_weber

Jun 12
Today in France's electoral campaign was... wild.

Didn't follow everything that happened? No worries, this thread has all the important (and maybe a few not so important) information for you. 🇫🇷

This is (of course) not about baguette, but France's legislative elections. 🔽
Context reminder: after a disastrous result at the EU elections, French President Macron called for snap legislative elections, which will be help on 30 June and 7 July.

These elections do *not* include the president, who is directly elected in presidential elections.
If you need a punchline for the day, "a reshuffling right and far-right" would probably fit.

Les Républicains (formally centre-right party, w/ members w/ far-right sympathies) and Reconquête (far-right even more far-right than Rassemblement National) had internal battles today.
Read 13 tweets
Jun 9
This is massive, and the impact on domestic politics can hardly be underestimated.

*But* these are parliamentary elections, which are detached from the position of the president.

Yes, strong RN will have significant impact, but not replace Macron by Le Pen.

Quick 🧵🇫🇷:
Background: I see a lot of speculations here about a Le Pen presidency after the parliamentary elections.

This is not how the French constitution works: the president is elected directly by the citizens, not by parliament - and can stay in office w/o parliament majority.
In the past, French presidents have governed without parliamentary majority - this is called “cohabitation” in French. In this case, the President appoints a prime minister from the leading party in parliament.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 28, 2023
Macron's speech was almost two hours - here's a not-so-short thread with the key elements on strategy, security and defence. 🇫🇷🧵

In a nutshell: strong focus on Europe's role in the world, and using the full foreign policy toolkit to defend French and European interests
Analysis of the context/ world order: Europe risks decline because of structural factors (e.g. demography, economy...); international order is challenged.

Consequence: need for a "relatively simple diplomacy: defend our interests".
Macron recalls principles of French foreign policy: "path of independence", i.e. France has allies and partners, but willingness to speak to all. Calls for a diplomacy of trust, "d'équilibres au pluriel" (equilibriums, in plural), and recalls that this does not mean equidistance.
Read 22 tweets
Jun 14, 2023
So the German security strategy is out - what does it say on Germany's place in Europe, European security, and EU/Germany-China? A thread: 🇩🇪🧵
#Sicherheitsstrategie Image
First things first: here's the full document in English: nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/National-Secur…
Let's start with some counting:
- France: 5
- USA: 4
- Poland: 0
- UK: 0
- China: 6

- European Union/ EU: 74
Read 15 tweets
Jun 14, 2023
Strategy is being presented right now. Some elements in English below (thread with comments will follow separately): 🇩🇪⬇️
Scholz starts the conference and underlines that the idea to draft a strategy was already included in the coalition agreement before the Zeitenwende. Also underlines that the approach is integrated.
Scholz underlines continuity: "deep friedship with France and close partnership with US". (Comment: very important that France is mentioned in the very beginning here - good signal.)
Read 14 tweets
Jun 5, 2023
Misleading title by @FinancialTimes: this wording ("humilité stratégique") was *not* used by Macron.

What Macron said:
- "autonomie stratégique" (autonomy)
- "lucidité stratégique" (clear-sightedness)
- "intimité stratégique" (intimacy)

ft.com/content/c8cb44…
Why I think it matters to clarify this: there are many good elements in the text. Yet, adding just another "strategic XYZ" to the list of "strategic autonomy/ sovereignty/ intimacy..." will not make things clearer.
Yes, the article mentions that one could call it "strategic humility" (does not cite Macron), but I find it misleading in the title because it just looks like Macron had come up with yet another concept - although he did not, and that was one of the strengths of this speech.
Read 5 tweets

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