First round of French legislative elections takes place on 30 June.
What do the parties actually say on security and defence, Ukraine, and in general foreign policy? Now that they all have published their programmes, here's a short overview (Ensemble, RN, Front Populaire): 🧵🇫🇷
In general, security and defence are clearly not the central topics of this electoral campaign. Instead, parties focus on questions related to social security, work, salaries, cost of living, and immigration. The exact ideas on Europe were laid out in the EU election programmes.
Programme by Ensemble (Macron's Renaissance party and allies) on defence (1/2):
- commitment to stay in NATO and maintain nuclear deterrence (that's explicit because it is not the case for other parties); explicitly underlines that this is a "guarantee of our nation"
Programme by Ensemble (Macron's Renaissance party and allies) on defence (2/2):
- keeping the military planning law as agreed, and doubling the French defence budget by 2030
Programme of Rassemblement National (RN) on defence (1/2):
- preserving sovereignty of French nuclear deterrence [note: this is not questioned at the moment]
- guarantee the model of a "complete army"
- maintaining overall budget trajectory of military planning law
Programme of Rassemblement National (RN) on defence (2/2):
- no transfer of competences to the EU in security and defence
-give preference to weapons sells to other European states
- war in Ukraine as "threat to our collective security"
Programme of Front Populaire on defence (1/3):
- "unfailingly" defend Ukraine "to make Putin's war of aggression fail"
- support: weapons delivery, foreign debt cancellation, seizing RUS assets in line with intl law, blue helmets to protect nuclear power plants
Programme of Front Populaire on defence (2/3):
- only programme with details on Gaza
- no further support for Netanyahu gov in Israel
- support ICC in cases against Hamas and Netanyahu
- immediately recognise Palestine
- embargo on weapons deliveries to Israel
Programme of Front Populaire on defence (3/3):
- act for liberation of hostages
- sanctions against far-right gov of Netanyahu
- call for suspension of EU-Israel association agreement
- allow organisation of elections in Palestine
- ensure respect of sovereignty of Lebanon
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This is (of course) not about baguette, but France's legislative elections. 🔽
Context reminder: after a disastrous result at the EU elections, French President Macron called for snap legislative elections, which will be help on 30 June and 7 July.
These elections do *not* include the president, who is directly elected in presidential elections.
If you need a punchline for the day, "a reshuffling right and far-right" would probably fit.
Les Républicains (formally centre-right party, w/ members w/ far-right sympathies) and Reconquête (far-right even more far-right than Rassemblement National) had internal battles today.
Background: I see a lot of speculations here about a Le Pen presidency after the parliamentary elections.
This is not how the French constitution works: the president is elected directly by the citizens, not by parliament - and can stay in office w/o parliament majority.
In the past, French presidents have governed without parliamentary majority - this is called “cohabitation” in French. In this case, the President appoints a prime minister from the leading party in parliament.
Analysis of the context/ world order: Europe risks decline because of structural factors (e.g. demography, economy...); international order is challenged.
Consequence: need for a "relatively simple diplomacy: defend our interests".
Macron recalls principles of French foreign policy: "path of independence", i.e. France has allies and partners, but willingness to speak to all. Calls for a diplomacy of trust, "d'équilibres au pluriel" (equilibriums, in plural), and recalls that this does not mean equidistance.
So the German security strategy is out - what does it say on Germany's place in Europe, European security, and EU/Germany-China? A thread: 🇩🇪🧵 #Sicherheitsstrategie
Scholz starts the conference and underlines that the idea to draft a strategy was already included in the coalition agreement before the Zeitenwende. Also underlines that the approach is integrated.
Scholz underlines continuity: "deep friedship with France and close partnership with US". (Comment: very important that France is mentioned in the very beginning here - good signal.)
Why I think it matters to clarify this: there are many good elements in the text. Yet, adding just another "strategic XYZ" to the list of "strategic autonomy/ sovereignty/ intimacy..." will not make things clearer.
Yes, the article mentions that one could call it "strategic humility" (does not cite Macron), but I find it misleading in the title because it just looks like Macron had come up with yet another concept - although he did not, and that was one of the strengths of this speech.