Thread by @Mij_Europe

France seems to be heading towards a hung parliament - but one where *no* majority exists in the Assembly to sustain *any* Govt. There is no precedent in recent French politics for such an impasse. For that you have to go back to the days of the 4th, not 5th, Republic. Thread
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No previous President of 5th Republic has faced such a situation. Constitutional experts & politicos disagree about what this would look like. But there are some examples back from days of 4th Republic when Govt's came & went through “revolving doors”. One lasted only 3 days
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Faced with utter political blockage in Assembly, @EmmanuelMacron would essentially have to decide which Govt he wants to be “stuck” with. “Stuck” because this Govt would almost certainly face immediate censure motions from opp deputies in Assembly - precipitating its collapse
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However, it would then limp on. This = “Caretaker Govt”: a Govt which forms, loses a censure motion, but then remains in place - as there are no alternative majorities or Govt's possible - & as Macron is constitutionally barred from calling another election for another 1yr
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The two most realistic Caretaker Govt's likely to emerge from the political rubble on 7 July are: 1/ a national unity Govt with a PM from outside politics or 2/ an extension of @GabrielAttal outgoing Govt. These would not be “normal” Govt's - like @Elisabeth_Borne or Attal v1
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Caretaker Govt's can't do very much - they can't propose legislation or govern by decrees. They have limited powers to govern through “circulars” to civil servants. They would almost certainly face political challenges & repudiation by the independent Constitutional Council
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Yet a caretaker Govt wd have margin over defence & fiscal policy, to pass budgets, even if it wd face constitutional challenges. Remember: the Assembly wd be blocked & Macronism would, in theory, have been voted out of power. So how much margin would a Caretaker actually have? 7/

A third option for Macron would be to resign as President. He says this is “absurd”. But: An early presidential election would then enable fresh legislative elections & a possible way out of the political impasse. Macron has sworn he won't do that. OK - in the short term
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The political pressure on Macron to resign - including from his own side - to help break the deadlock is likely to grow *significantly* & could prove impossible to resist. There therefore has to be some probability of this happening over the next 12 months to break the impasse
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France is moving towards a truly unprecedented moment in its recent politics. Whether a hung parliament, a far right or hard left majority, this is likely to be completely uncharted territory. How long can Macron survive the chaos - before becoming a victim of it?

ENDS

NB. I should add: There is ambiguity in Constitution over whether a new President can dissolve the Assembly & pave the way for fresh legislative elections before 1yr has passed. Some on the independent Constitutional Council think yes, others no. Welcome to the New France...