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Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Jun 25 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

NEW: Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.

Two major international bodies—the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) — announced decisions on June 25 confirming Russia's long-term perpetration of war crimes and human rights violations in Ukraine.

More Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/7)

2/ Russia and Venezuela signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at countering "coercive measures," likely to demonstrate to the West that the Kremlin holds influence in the Western hemisphere.

3/ Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on a Russian ammunition depot in Voronezh Oblast on June 25 and recently conducted strikes on Pantsir-S1 air defense systems in Belgorod Oblast with unspecified weapons.

4/ Russia imposed countersanctions against 81 European Union (EU)-based news outlets on June 25 following EU sanctions against four Russian state-affiliated news outlets on June 24.

5/ Dagestan Republic Head Sergei Melikov ordered investigations into the personal records of senior Dagestani officials following the June 23 likely Wilayat Kavkaz terrorist attacks in Dagestan, indicating that the Kremlin may be intensifying efforts to address Islamist extremist threats in the North Caucasus as it attempts to maintain a veneer of stability and normalcy.

6/ Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met with Lithuania-based Belarusian opposition leader Svitlana Tsikhanouskaya on June 20 in Vilnius amid deteriorating Armenian-Belarusian relations.

7/ A Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF) will begin training unspecified Russian military personnel on October 1, 2024.

Latest on Ukraine: isw.pub/UkrWar062524

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Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Jun 26

NEW: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei expressed foreign and nuclear policy views on June 25 that closely align with ultraconservative hardline presidential candidate Saeed Jalili’s views, possibly indicating that Khamenei endorses Jalili in the upcoming election. Khamenei’s views also signal the supreme leader’s opposition to reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian. 🧵(1/6)

2/ Gaza Strip: Israel assesses that it will complete the intense phase of ground operation in the Gaza Strip within a few days. Hamas will very likely exploit the Israeli raid system to reconstitute its combat units and reassert its governing authority across the Gaza Strip.

3/ Hamas is disrupting Israeli efforts to create nascent governing authorities that exclude Hamas’ political wing. Hamas reportedly killed two clan leaders in the central and southern Gaza Strip as part of this effort.

Read 6 tweets

Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Jun 24

Additional key takeaways 🧵(1/5):

Russian forces recently seized Shumy, southeast of Toretsk, and advanced near Donetsk City and Robotyne.

2/ The Russian MoD accused Ukrainian forces of conducting a short-range ATACMS strike against occupied Sevastopol on June 23.

Russian milbloggers widely criticized the Russian MoD and Russia’s occupation authorities in Crimea for failing to prevent the strike and sufficiently protect Russian civilians.

3/ Ukrainian forces struck a Russian motorized rifle regiment command post in Nekhoteevka, Belgorod Oblast.

Recent drone footage showing a Russian soldier executing a wounded fellow servicemember exemplifies the brutal culture that is pervasive within the Russian Armed Forces.

Read 5 tweets

Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Jun 23

NEW: Hamas appears to be accelerating its reconstitution effort in the Gaza Strip by beginning to regenerate its forces through recruitment. Hamas appears to be successfully reconstituting itself militarily and politically in areas where the IDF is no longer present. 🧵(1/5)

2/ Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least four locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 22.

3/ Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least six attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 22.

Read 6 tweets

Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Jun 23

NEW: Russian forces appear to be intensifying the tempo of their offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast while decreasing the rate of attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast — consistent with ISW's assessment that Russian offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast are primarily intended to fix and distract Ukrainian forces in order to allow Russian forces to intensify elsewhere in the theater. 🧵(1/8)

2/ Russian forces intensified assaults in the Toretsk-Horlivka direction (SW of Chasiv Yar and NE of Avdiivka) on the night of June 18 and maintained a relatively high rate of attacks in this area between June 19-22, reportedly making several tactical gains in the area.

3/ Russian forces have been generally inactive on this sector of the front throughout the course of 2024, so their activation and intensification are noteworthy.

Read 8 tweets

Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Jun 22

NEW: Putin continues to invoke nuclear threats as part of his ongoing information campaign to discourage further Western support for Ukraine and undermine the int'l community's efforts to cohere its strategic vision for defeating Russia’s war of conquest against Ukraine (🧵1/X)

2/ Putin claimed during a speech to graduating Russian officers on June 21 that Russia plans to further develop its nuclear triad as a "guarantee of strategic deterrence" and to maintain the balance of power in the world.

3/ Putin claimed during a press conference in Vietnam on June 20 that Russia is considering "lowering the threshold" for nuclear use in Russia's nuclear doctrine and that a possible future strategic defeat of Russian forces on the battlefield in Ukraine would result in the "end of [Russia's] statehood."

Read 7 tweets

Institute for the Study of War

@TheStudyofWar

Jun 21

NEW | China-Taiwan Weekly Update, June 21: The PRC forcefully blocked a Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal two days after the implementation of a new China Coast Guard (CCG) regulation that permits more aggressive “law enforcement” in the South China Sea. 1/6

2/ A CCG & Philippine boat collided, & the CCG boarded, towed, emptied, & damaged 2 Philippine supply boats. CCG personnel damaged the hulls of the boats w/ bladed weapons & abandoned them. At least 8 Philippine personnel were injured during the clash, incl. 1 who lost a thumb.

3/ This is the first time the PRC has used bladed weapons or boarded a Philippine government vessel during its confrontations with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Read 6 tweets

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