Joni Askola Profile picture
Jun 26, 2024 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/10 The dispatch of north korean troops to support russia in its genocide in Ukraine exposes the grim truth about russia's faltering invasion and also highlights the inadequacy of Western escalation management. Image
2/10 There are rumors that north korea plans to deploy an engineering unit to Donetsk to aid russia in its unsuccessful invasion and genocide of Ukraine. Image
3/10 If verified, this demonstrates yet another dismal symbolic setback for russia, as it appears incapable of invading Ukraine without direct military intervention from its allies. Even with such support, its prospects for success seem bleak. Image
4/10 This underscores the complete failure of Western appeasement toward russia, a development that should not come as a surprise to anyone. russia's allies, including china, have continued to escalate their support for russia. Image
5/10 South Korea and Japan should urgently reconsider their policies and begin providing military assistance to Ukraine in response. Image
6/10 north korean troops should also compel the West to take action by increasing aid to Ukraine and lifting restrictions. Image
7/10 The use of north korean troops and ballistic missiles by russia should be sufficient to compel the West to remove all restrictions on matters such as deep strikes inside russian territory. Such action would be only equitable. Image
8/10 russia is on track to lose the war in Ukraine. The only potential game-changer would be a direct intervention by russia's allies, coupled with substantial material support from china. Image
9/10 The West must revise its strategy to prevent this outcome, and if it occurs, it will need to significantly increase its efforts. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jan 23
1/12 “Value-Based Realism” was a major theme at Davos.

It is being sold by Stubb and Carney as a smart, pragmatic path for the West, but I think it is a strategic trap.

Here is why this new realism might actually lead to managed decline 🧵 Image
2/12 The concept is the latest intellectual fashion.

@alexstubb and @MarkJCarney are pushing it as the ultimate manual for "middle powers" like Canada, the UK, and the EU.

It sounds sophisticated to be principled yet pragmatic, but we need to look a bit closer Image
3/12 The logic is simple: stop waiting for a perfect world and deal with the brutal one we have.

It is an honest description of how we behave right now, post-Biden.

That is exactly the problem.

It takes our current failure of will and rebrands it as a high-level strategy Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 21
1/5 Europe needs a reality check.

The strategies that worked during Trump's first term are useless now.

We tried playing nice, and it failed.

It is high time to stop the appeasement and start facing reality Image
2/5 The time for Europeans to appease Trump is over.

We have spent the last year watching our tactics from "Trump 1" fail miserably in "Trump 2."

Flattery and silence do not work anymore.

He sees them as weakness, not respect Image
3/5 Trump lives in a bubble of total confirmation.

He is surrounded by sycophants who are too afraid to tell him the truth or challenge his worst impulses.

Because no one in his inner circle dares to confront him, he believes he can bully Europe without consequence Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 20
1/8 Europe is sleepwalking into a forever war because we are too afraid to actually win.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start ending it.

Here is how 🧵 Image
2/8 Europe has the power to end the war in Ukraine much faster but it requires a total shift in strategy.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start winning it.

Here is the roadmap to force a Russian collapse👇 Image
3/8 We must help Ukraine scale its domestic defense industry in every possible way.

This means direct funding and technical advice.

A Ukraine that can build its own weapons is a Ukraine that can sustain the fight without relying solely on foreign logistics Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 15
1/7 Trump is no isolationist:

He is a show interventionist, a cowardly form of imperialist interventionism that is also meant to entertain the world Image
2/7 Trump's entire campaign was built on the lie that he would end wars and stop regime change operations.

It has been a year since he promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and the fighting continues Image
3/7 While he appointed isolationists to his administration, his actions tell a different story.

He claims to have ended eight wars but he hasn't ended any. In reality it looks more likely that he will start eight new ones before his term is over Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 13
1/8 Why JD Vance is a greater threat to the American experiment than Donald Trump.

A thread on the Dark Enlightenment, eyeliner, and the end of the West🧵 Image
2/8 Trump may be the worst and most traitorous president in US history, but JD Vance is a far more calculated threat.

Trump is erratic. Vance is a disciplined, smart, and well-organized opportunist ready to dismantle democracy with precision Image
3/8 The PayPal Mafia has one foot in the White House door by installing Vance. Tech oligarch Peter Thiel effectively owns him.

Their goal is clear: move Vance into the presidency to serve their personal interests and finish the job Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 11
1/7 Putin doesn’t want you to know this:

Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s war against Nazi Germany in WWII.

By this stage of that war, Soviet troops were already in Berlin.

Today, Russia is still struggling to take Chasiv Yar Image
2/7 Russia has been trying to conquer the Donbas for 12 years, and the rest of Ukraine for nearly four of those.

Despite going all in and receiving help from partners, Russia controls less land now than it did in March 2022, one month into the invasion Image
3/7 The cost?

Over a million Russian casualties.

And after all that Russia still hasn’t achieved its strategic goals. It is far from controlling the Donbas let alone Ukraine.

This is a failure so massive it will be studied in military academies for decades Image
Read 7 tweets

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