Joni Askola Profile picture
Jun 26 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/10 The dispatch of north korean troops to support russia in its genocide in Ukraine exposes the grim truth about russia's faltering invasion and also highlights the inadequacy of Western escalation management. Image
2/10 There are rumors that north korea plans to deploy an engineering unit to Donetsk to aid russia in its unsuccessful invasion and genocide of Ukraine. Image
3/10 If verified, this demonstrates yet another dismal symbolic setback for russia, as it appears incapable of invading Ukraine without direct military intervention from its allies. Even with such support, its prospects for success seem bleak. Image
4/10 This underscores the complete failure of Western appeasement toward russia, a development that should not come as a surprise to anyone. russia's allies, including china, have continued to escalate their support for russia. Image
5/10 South Korea and Japan should urgently reconsider their policies and begin providing military assistance to Ukraine in response. Image
6/10 north korean troops should also compel the West to take action by increasing aid to Ukraine and lifting restrictions. Image
7/10 The use of north korean troops and ballistic missiles by russia should be sufficient to compel the West to remove all restrictions on matters such as deep strikes inside russian territory. Such action would be only equitable. Image
8/10 russia is on track to lose the war in Ukraine. The only potential game-changer would be a direct intervention by russia's allies, coupled with substantial material support from china. Image
9/10 The West must revise its strategy to prevent this outcome, and if it occurs, it will need to significantly increase its efforts. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Sep 16
1/9 No stones should be left unturned: Ukraine's new units need additional equipment, and the country should also increase mobilization to properly replace losses in its existing units. Image
2/9 Officials state that mobilization is progressing as planned; however, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, the head of Ukraine’s parliamentary defense committee, informed the FT that it will take an additional three months for the newly-trained troops to have an impact on the battlefield. Image
3/9 President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Ukraine is currently unable to equip even 4 of the 14 required brigades due to a shortage of weapons. Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 15
1/11 Day 41: Ukraine was well-prepared for the initial phases of the Kursk operation, and it seems they have also made solid preparations for the ongoing phase. Image
2/11 The fog of war is still dense, but it appears that Ukraine held off until russia's counteroffensive began before launching its own operation south of Glushkovo. Image
3/11 Ukrainian forces maintained their advance in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and carried out offensive operations in the region on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 depicts Ukrainian forces active in southern Veseloye. Image
Read 11 tweets
Sep 14
1/11 Why do we keep discussing russia's red lines without establishing more of our own? What are the West's red lines concerning russia? Image
2/11 Obama stated that the use of chemical weapons would constitute a red line in Syria, yet he did not take action when Assad employed them. Similarly, Ukraine could have represented a red line, but the West opted to allow russia to take Crimea and attack the Donbas. Image
3/11 The remainder of Ukraine could have been a red line in 2022, but we faltered once more and permitted russia to blackmail us and launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which ultimately ended in failure, but at the cost of many Ukrainian lives. Image
Read 11 tweets
Sep 14
1/17 The world's most successful disinformation operation? While russia may be struggling in its invasion and losing the war, it appears to be succeeding in the information war. How significantly have its extensive information operations influenced global opinion? Image
2/17 Even many of us who were aware of russia's nature and capabilities have been surprised multiple times during the ongoing full-scale war, particularly at its onset. While it was anticipated, it still came as a shock. Image
3/17 russia has inherited a significant amount from the Soviet Union, including some of its undeserved prestige, military assets, diplomatic relationships, and global influence. Additionally, it has continued many of its influence operations. Image
Read 17 tweets
Sep 14
1/5 Logic 101: The international community views the illegally annexed regions as part of Ukraine, a sentiment echoed by Vladimir Putin himself, who inadvertently acknowledges that these territories aren't russian when he sets red lines regarding strikes on russian territory. Image
2/5 As the West debates whether the US should permit Ukraine to use Western long-range weapons within russian territory, Putin inadvertently concedes that the annexed regions are not russian through his red lines. Image
3/5 This is a point that has been made before and remains true. Ukraine has repeatedly targeted illegally annexed territories using Western weapons, yet there has been no response from russia. Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 13
1/9 Day 39: russia's counteroffensive continues in the Kursk region, while Ukraine responds with attacks elsewhere. The fog of war remains thick, making it difficult to clearly discern the details of the ongoing military operations. Image
2/9 russian forces continued counterattacking across the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on September 12, but made only marginal gains, likely due to ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations and defensive counterattacks in the area. Image
3/9 russian forces have advanced in Kursk Oblast areas not yet controlled by Ukraine. However, they will likely face greater difficulty when counterattacking into areas where Ukrainian forces maintain control. Image
Read 9 tweets

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