Thread by @Mylovanov

Many believe that Russia is invincible, but they are wrong

There are important early signs that the ridiculously high losses of Russian soldiers are unsustainable 1/

But, first, how high are these losses?

The NYTimes reports, citing the U.S. intelligence, the losses of about 1000 per day. That’s 30 000 per month, 365 000 a year. A lot! It should be a lot! 2/

NYTimes: But despite its losses, Russia is recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers a month — roughly as many as are exiting the battlefield, U.S. officials said. 3/

This is sign 1.

Russia is killing all people it can recruit

So, it isn’t capable of accumulating sufficiently more troops for any meaningful operation

And that’s why it need ceasefire - to get the numbers of troops up 4/

But the significant part here is that Russia does it by choice. In principle, if it can recruit 30K a month, it can choose to kill 10K a month, and within a half a year, it will have 200K more combat ready troops 5/

So why doesn’t kill them all instead? I think it is logic it’s. It cannot maintain or control a larger army. So, that’s Russia at its peak. 6/

There is another argument - Russia chooses to push forward with all its might, as hard as it can. But why the rush? Shouldn’t Russia wait until the US elections? 7/

The only reason why Russia is burning all the troops it can recruit now is because it calculates that the victory in the future is more difficult. Moreover, it is so much more difficult that it is worth the risk sacrificing this much troops 8/

What is Russia afraid of? First, that the support for Ukraine, surprisingly, continues to consolidate and improve. Second, that Ukraine has been continuously increasing its capabilities of deeps strikes and bombing. 9/

Once Ukraine reaches par with Russia in terms of bombing, Russia will lose leverage as Ukraine will be able to target its critical infrastructure. So the peace, on Russian terms, has to be reached before that. That’s why Russia is pushing. This is at least one theory! 10X