Thread by @rgoodlaw

1/Don't believe the hype

The truth: Supreme Court ruling on #January6th obstruction charge materially affects at most only 5.9% of all Jan. 6th cases.

Some media get this wrong.

I teamed up with two greats—Mary McCord @AWeissmann_—to look at DOJ data⤵️
justsecurity.org/96493/supreme-…

2/ Put another way, 94% of the Capitol riot cases are clearly materially unaffected by the Supreme Court’s ruling in Fischer v. United States.

In this thread, I’ll explain more about what the data tell us.

Here's the key infographic.⤵️

3/ Many in media mistakenly focus on all defendants DOJ charged with obstruction.

The truth: A quarter of them pleaded guilty but NOT to obstruction. They pleaded to other charges.

Those charges and those sentences are utterly unaffected by Supreme Court’s ruling.

4/ The great majority of #January6th defendants convicted for obstruction (via trial or guilty plea) were also convicted for other felonies. Those felonies still stick.

5/ Of the very small number of defendants (48) who pleaded to obstruction and no other offense: a majority of them can be recharged with felonies (per a proviso in plea agreement allowing for this scenario).

The all-important proviso.⤵️

6/ @NPR's @NinaTotenberg reporting on the Court's decision features our study:

"A deep dive into the data concludes the effects will be 'minimal.'"

"The study, published by Just Security...relied on NPR’s detailed data base of Jan 6 Capitol riot cases."
npr.org/2024/06/14/nx-…

@NPR @NinaTotenberg 7/ Mary McCord, @AWeissmann_ and I also make this point:

"The Trump administration’s Department of Justice was the first to use this specific obstruction statute – 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c)(2) – to prosecute individuals who participated in the Capitol riot."

justsecurity.org/96493/supreme-…