1/New important public resource

“Heat Map” of USA showing hometown origins of #January6th defendants

Shows:

Power of a President to catalyze political violence nationwide

Local and nationwide effects of a Trump presidential pardon of Jan 6 defendants
justsecurity.org/104036/heat-ma… 2/ Along with the Heat Map is essential analysis by leading expert @thomasjoscelyn.

He explains how the Proud Boys orchestrated January 6th attack and risks of resurgence – especially in the event of pardons that former President Trump has suggested.

justsecurity.org/103956/proud-b…

1/@jacklgoldsmith wrote a NY Times piece attacking special counsel Jack Smith.

@AWeissmann_ and I are refuting the baseless attack.

Compare:

Goldsmith 2020: Bill Barr has "enormous discretion" to ignore 60 day rule
Goldsmith 2024: "Crucial" for Garland to comply with the rule
2/ On left:

Goldsmith piece, “Jack Smith Owes Us an Explanation”

(He thinks DOJ defied a 60-Day rule in recently filing a brief showing details of alleged Trump crimes, and demands explanation)

On right:

Goldsmith shows no awareness DOJ gave the explanation TWICE.

Trump and Vance's racist smears of Haitians - who are legally present in Springfield, Ohio - has led to bomb threats closing City Hall, schools and a motor vehicles office.

Now two hospitals closed due to bomb threats.

fox8.com/news/springfie… 2/ The Trump effect in Springfield:

"Wittenberg University announced the cancelation of all events and activities Sunday ... after an email 'threatened a potential shooting,' campus police said in a statement. The threats reportedly targeted Haitians."
fox8.com/news/universit…

The racist smears of Haitians in Springfield, Ohio shows how easily these influencers' position against "illegal immigrants" slides into being against legal immigrants (of color)

"The city also says that the Haitian immigrants are in the country legally under a federal program" 2/ JD Vance expands racist smear to "communicable diseases like HIV and TB have skyrocketed in this small Ohio town."

Of a piece with Trump as President saying of Haitians "they all have AIDS" and didn't want to accept “people from shithole countries.”

https://x.com/Acyn/status/1833713433629646902

State of play in United States v. Trump:

1/ On Friday night, Jack Smith offered to file a new brief that could provide the public "the first glimpse of the government’s evidence beyond the four corners of the indictment—an explosive prospect.”

justsecurity.org/99693/immunity… 2/ “It is conspicuous that the special counsel does not appear to be opposing such a mini-trial, which may be important to Judge Chutkan as prosecutors would likely see tradeoffs with such public hearings.”

analysis by @NormEisen @Matt_Seligman @Edanyaperry @JoshuaGKolb

Media needs to stop downplaying the threat

On left:

NYT: "Moms For Liberty can get a bit carried away —one of their local chapters once accidentally quoted Adolf Hitler."

On right:

No accident. The Moms for Liberty group attributed the statement to Hitler.

h/t @jamisonfoser
2/ Also, "once accidentally quoted Hitler"?

Nope.

"After initially defending the quote, the chapter was forced to apologize."

The New York Times know that. The latter quote is from the NYT's own reporting at the time ().nytimes.com/2023/06/29/us/…

Many nuggets in these #Project2025 Secret Training Videos

One is the nexus to Trump world.

Karoline Leavitt - Trump Campaign's 2024 National Press Secretary - features in video training those who would occupy positions in a new Trump administration.

propublica.org/article/inside… 2/ Another is this remarkable statistic:

"A review of the training videos shows that 29 of the 36 speakers have worked for Trump in some capacity —on his 2016-17 transition team, in the administration or on his 2024 reelection campaign."

That's 81%.

What's in this image?⤵️

Color-coded indictment of former president Trump for trying to overturn 2020 election.

The vast majority - green, yellow, orange - is Trump’s conduct for which he is likely not immune, and district court will likely find he can be prosecuted for it.

1/
2/ The color-coded January 6th indictment and accompanying analysis is in this @just_security article:

After Immunity: The Path Forward for the January 6th Case
By @NormEisen @Matt_Seligman @JoshuaGKolb

justsecurity.org/98457/immunity…

Very rare to get behind-scenes look at SCOTUS deliberations⤵️

Makes clear - as @charlie_savage anticipated in his 2007 book - that CJ Roberts saw #PresidentialImmunity opinion as opportunity to create maximalist presidential powers. With no compromise
1/
cnn.com/2024/07/30/pol… 2/ @CNN exclusive reporting:

"There was an immediate and clear 6-3 split."

"In their private session on the case the next day...the votes on the core issue lacked any ambiguity and Roberts was ready to write with bold strokes."

cnn.com/2024/07/30/pol…

One of the most important legal conversations I've ever had.

We break down SCOTUS immunity decision.

Enormous implications for presidential power that many have not understood yet.

Mary McCord (@GeorgetownICAP)
@steve_vladeck
@marty_lederman
@pshah518

buzzsprout.com/2074610/153596… 2/ A premise of SCOTUS opinion is that POTUS has "conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority" over the Justice Department.

This should unsettle Americans, regardless of party.

Take a gander at what that means in Chief Justice Roberts' own words.⤵️

1/Don't believe the hype

The truth: Supreme Court ruling on #January6th obstruction charge materially affects at most only 5.9% of all Jan. 6th cases.

Some media get this wrong.

I teamed up with two greats—Mary McCord @AWeissmann_—to look at DOJ data⤵️
justsecurity.org/96493/supreme-… 2/ Put another way, 94% of the Capitol riot cases are clearly materially unaffected by the Supreme Court’s ruling in Fischer v. United States.

In this thread, I’ll explain more about what the data tell us.

Here's the key infographic.⤵️

This is important (but not close) debate.

@reidhoffman shows how @DavidSacks' defense of Trump policies is built on misconceptions and distortions of key facts.⤵️

Plus risk of "black swan" event via Trump policies could severely damage U.S. economy.

1/
reid.medium.com/a-reply-to-dav…
2/ Report by Director of Economics at Yale's @The_Budget_Lab @ernietedeschi:

Analyzes the risk of a "‘black swan’ event outside of the realm of US experience, such as ... military intervention in domestic politics" with profound impact on US safe harbor investment premium.

Breaking: Trump admitted to probation officials he has a gun in Florida

Convicted felon possessing firearm =felony

Indicted person receiving firearm in interstate commerce =felony

Condition of release for Trump in DC , FL, GA is not committing a felony
cnn.com/politics/live-… 2/ Donald J. Trump condition of release in District of Columbia:

"IT IS ORDERED that the defendant's release is subject to these conditions:

The defendant must not violate federal, state, or local law while on release."

Brilliant remarks by @RepJasonCrow

Explaining why bill to sanction #InternationalCriminalCourt would damage US national security

“I come before you today a combat veteran, a supporter of the American Servicemembers Protection Act, a longtime supporter of Israel's security...” 2/ Congressman Crow outlines several pieces of recent congressional legislation and U.S. government support for the vital work of the International Criminal Court including on #RussianWarCrimes in Ukraine, #Darfur, Cote d’Ivoire, #Myanmar, the #DRC, and elsewhere.

With news that Wisconsin A.G. has filed felony charges against Trump attorney Ken Chesebro, Jim Troupis & Michael Roman for 2020 fake elector scheme.

Most comprehensive timeline with Wisconsin docs included. From me and colleagues at @GeorgetownICAP⤵️

justsecurity.org/81939/timeline… 2/ Coauthors of the comprehensive timeline include @jhglick , Mary B. McCord and Rupa Bhattacharyya

McCord, Bhattacharyya and Glick also authored this terrific backgrounder related their groundbreaking litigation on #Wisconsin false electors.

justsecurity.org/95670/wisconsi…

I anticipate:

- DA asks for incarceration as sentence.
- Justice Merchan imposes period of incarceration.

I'll discuss 7pm ET @OutFrontCNN

Factors:

- Gravity of election fraud (Merchan has emphasized it)
- Defendant expresses no remorse
- Defendant's “history and character” 2/ Analysis of sentencing here.⤵️

See Question 47. "If convicted, what will be Trump’s sentence?"

By @NormEisen @AndrewWarrenFL @SivenWatt

justsecurity.org/93916/guide-ma…

🚨Int'l Criminal Court Prosecutor has applied for arrest warrants:

Netanyahu and Gallant
war crime of mass starvation, extermination, targeting civilians

Hamas leaders
extermination, murder, taking of hostages, sexual assault

Stay tuned for analysis @just_security
Timeline⤵️ 2/ ICC Prosecutor application for arrest warrants of 3 Hamas leaders:

- Yahya Sinwar, Hamas leader

- Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, the leader of the Al Qassem Brigades and better known as Mohammed Deif

- Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader

cnn.com/2024/05/20/mid…

I'm interviewed here on prosecutors bizarrely working with a ringleader of 2020 conspiracy (Ken Chesebro) to charge people below him

Response by Chesebro's attorney (1) throws GOP false electors under the bus; (2) exposes his own client to legal peril

1/
politico.com/news/2024/05/1… 2. Chesebro’s lawyer's quote below.⤵️

He incriminates false electors by saying they went further than Chesebro intended.

He hides that Chesebro himself helped submit their false certificates, pushed the Pence plan through to the end on back of their certificates, and more.

Under the radar:

A very important piece of evidence prosecutors entered during re-direct with Stormy Daniels on Thursday.

It contradicts a key promise President Trump's attorney made to jurors in Opening Statements.

My discussion with @ErinBurnett @Terridaustin @OutFrontCNN⤵️ 2/ Here's the transcript of our conversation:

available here as well: transcripts.cnn.com/show/ebo/date/…

I discussed why two documents shown by prosecutors on Monday in the Trump trial are "close to being smoking guns."

On @OutFrontCNN.

The Trump CFO Allen Weisselberg document is truly mind blowing. 2/ Get this 🤯:

Trump CFO's contemporaneous handwritten notes recording the underlying scheme - the true reason for payments to Michael Cohen - are written on a copy of the bank account showing the $130,000 hush money wired on Oct. 27 to Stormy Daniels' lawyer!

On this day in history:

A former president of the United States was held to be in Criminal Contempt for "willful disobedience of a court's lawful mandate" by attacking witnesses and jurors in a criminal proceeding.

Court's finding based on beyond a reasonable doubt.

1/ 2/ Justice Merchan's well-reasoned, balanced opinion has two additional important notes.

First, he not only warns the Defendant, Mr. Trump, about jail time for future violations. He explains this may be required because fines ($1k per violation) won't be effective in this case.