Many nuggets in these #Project2025 Secret Training Videos

One is the nexus to Trump world.

Karoline Leavitt - Trump Campaign's 2024 National Press Secretary - features in video training those who would occupy positions in a new Trump administration.

propublica.org/article/inside… 2/ Another is this remarkable statistic:

"A review of the training videos shows that 29 of the 36 speakers have worked for Trump in some capacity —on his 2016-17 transition team, in the administration or on his 2024 reelection campaign."

That's 81%.

What's in this image?⤵️

Color-coded indictment of former president Trump for trying to overturn 2020 election.

The vast majority - green, yellow, orange - is Trump’s conduct for which he is likely not immune, and district court will likely find he can be prosecuted for it.

1/
2/ The color-coded January 6th indictment and accompanying analysis is in this @just_security article:

After Immunity: The Path Forward for the January 6th Case
By @NormEisen @Matt_Seligman @JoshuaGKolb

justsecurity.org/98457/immunity…

Very rare to get behind-scenes look at SCOTUS deliberations⤵️

Makes clear - as @charlie_savage anticipated in his 2007 book - that CJ Roberts saw #PresidentialImmunity opinion as opportunity to create maximalist presidential powers. With no compromise
1/
cnn.com/2024/07/30/pol… 2/ @CNN exclusive reporting:

"There was an immediate and clear 6-3 split."

"In their private session on the case the next day...the votes on the core issue lacked any ambiguity and Roberts was ready to write with bold strokes."

cnn.com/2024/07/30/pol…

One of the most important legal conversations I've ever had.

We break down SCOTUS immunity decision.

Enormous implications for presidential power that many have not understood yet.

Mary McCord (@GeorgetownICAP)
@steve_vladeck
@marty_lederman
@pshah518

buzzsprout.com/2074610/153596… 2/ A premise of SCOTUS opinion is that POTUS has "conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority" over the Justice Department.

This should unsettle Americans, regardless of party.

Take a gander at what that means in Chief Justice Roberts' own words.⤵️

1/Don't believe the hype

The truth: Supreme Court ruling on #January6th obstruction charge materially affects at most only 5.9% of all Jan. 6th cases.

Some media get this wrong.

I teamed up with two greats—Mary McCord @AWeissmann_—to look at DOJ data⤵️
justsecurity.org/96493/supreme-… 2/ Put another way, 94% of the Capitol riot cases are clearly materially unaffected by the Supreme Court’s ruling in Fischer v. United States.

In this thread, I’ll explain more about what the data tell us.

Here's the key infographic.⤵️

This is important (but not close) debate.

@reidhoffman shows how @DavidSacks' defense of Trump policies is built on misconceptions and distortions of key facts.⤵️

Plus risk of "black swan" event via Trump policies could severely damage U.S. economy.

1/
reid.medium.com/a-reply-to-dav…
2/ Report by Director of Economics at Yale's @The_Budget_Lab @ernietedeschi:

Analyzes the risk of a "‘black swan’ event outside of the realm of US experience, such as ... military intervention in domestic politics" with profound impact on US safe harbor investment premium.

Breaking: Trump admitted to probation officials he has a gun in Florida

Convicted felon possessing firearm =felony

Indicted person receiving firearm in interstate commerce =felony

Condition of release for Trump in DC , FL, GA is not committing a felony
cnn.com/politics/live-… 2/ Donald J. Trump condition of release in District of Columbia:

"IT IS ORDERED that the defendant's release is subject to these conditions:

The defendant must not violate federal, state, or local law while on release."

Brilliant remarks by @RepJasonCrow

Explaining why bill to sanction #InternationalCriminalCourt would damage US national security

“I come before you today a combat veteran, a supporter of the American Servicemembers Protection Act, a longtime supporter of Israel's security...” 2/ Congressman Crow outlines several pieces of recent congressional legislation and U.S. government support for the vital work of the International Criminal Court including on #RussianWarCrimes in Ukraine, #Darfur, Cote d’Ivoire, #Myanmar, the #DRC, and elsewhere.

With news that Wisconsin A.G. has filed felony charges against Trump attorney Ken Chesebro, Jim Troupis & Michael Roman for 2020 fake elector scheme.

Most comprehensive timeline with Wisconsin docs included. From me and colleagues at @GeorgetownICAP⤵️

justsecurity.org/81939/timeline… 2/ Coauthors of the comprehensive timeline include @jhglick , Mary B. McCord and Rupa Bhattacharyya

McCord, Bhattacharyya and Glick also authored this terrific backgrounder related their groundbreaking litigation on #Wisconsin false electors.

justsecurity.org/95670/wisconsi…

I anticipate:

- DA asks for incarceration as sentence.
- Justice Merchan imposes period of incarceration.

I'll discuss 7pm ET @OutFrontCNN

Factors:

- Gravity of election fraud (Merchan has emphasized it)
- Defendant expresses no remorse
- Defendant's “history and character” 2/ Analysis of sentencing here.⤵️

See Question 47. "If convicted, what will be Trump’s sentence?"

By @NormEisen @AndrewWarrenFL @SivenWatt

justsecurity.org/93916/guide-ma…

🚨Int'l Criminal Court Prosecutor has applied for arrest warrants:

Netanyahu and Gallant
war crime of mass starvation, extermination, targeting civilians

Hamas leaders
extermination, murder, taking of hostages, sexual assault

Stay tuned for analysis @just_security
Timeline⤵️ 2/ ICC Prosecutor application for arrest warrants of 3 Hamas leaders:

- Yahya Sinwar, Hamas leader

- Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, the leader of the Al Qassem Brigades and better known as Mohammed Deif

- Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader

cnn.com/2024/05/20/mid…

I'm interviewed here on prosecutors bizarrely working with a ringleader of 2020 conspiracy (Ken Chesebro) to charge people below him

Response by Chesebro's attorney (1) throws GOP false electors under the bus; (2) exposes his own client to legal peril

1/
politico.com/news/2024/05/1… 2. Chesebro’s lawyer's quote below.⤵️

He incriminates false electors by saying they went further than Chesebro intended.

He hides that Chesebro himself helped submit their false certificates, pushed the Pence plan through to the end on back of their certificates, and more.

Under the radar:

A very important piece of evidence prosecutors entered during re-direct with Stormy Daniels on Thursday.

It contradicts a key promise President Trump's attorney made to jurors in Opening Statements.

My discussion with @ErinBurnett @Terridaustin @OutFrontCNN⤵️ 2/ Here's the transcript of our conversation:

available here as well: transcripts.cnn.com/show/ebo/date/…

I discussed why two documents shown by prosecutors on Monday in the Trump trial are "close to being smoking guns."

On @OutFrontCNN.

The Trump CFO Allen Weisselberg document is truly mind blowing. 2/ Get this 🤯:

Trump CFO's contemporaneous handwritten notes recording the underlying scheme - the true reason for payments to Michael Cohen - are written on a copy of the bank account showing the $130,000 hush money wired on Oct. 27 to Stormy Daniels' lawyer!

On this day in history:

A former president of the United States was held to be in Criminal Contempt for "willful disobedience of a court's lawful mandate" by attacking witnesses and jurors in a criminal proceeding.

Court's finding based on beyond a reasonable doubt.

1/ 2/ Justice Merchan's well-reasoned, balanced opinion has two additional important notes.

First, he not only warns the Defendant, Mr. Trump, about jail time for future violations. He explains this may be required because fines ($1k per violation) won't be effective in this case.

Due to Trump attorney's concessions in Supreme Court oral argument, there's now a very clear path for DOJ's case to go forward.

It'd be a travesty for Justices to delay matters further.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett got Trump attorney to concede core allegations are private acts.⬇️ 2/ Justice Barrett rounds this out with her final question:

She gets USG attorney to say there's enough of these private acts to move forward, and Trump's conduct involving pressuring DOJ, Pence etc would be used just for evidentiary value not criminally liable for those acts.⬇️

I have a new piece with @AWeissmann_ in @just_security:

Questions the Supreme Court Should Ask at Oral Argument on Presidential Immunity


Just Security also published a complementary piece showing speed by which #SCOTUS can decide cases—if it wants to.⬇️justsecurity.org/94867/supreme-… 2/ Here's a link to the second piece. By Fred Wertheimer:

justsecurity.org/94848/supreme-…

NYT scoop: "David Pecker...is set to go first" as prosecution witness. ⬇️

Pecker could be key witness - in ways more devastating than Michael Cohen.

This also indicates DA is foregrounding unlawful election influence for jurors.

hat tip: @AWeissmann_
nytimes.com/2024/04/21/nyr… 2/ As this Timeline shows, Pecker's testimony should be strong proof of core allegation that the hush money scheme was geared toward influencing the outcome of the presidential election.

justsecurity.org/85761/timeline…

Note the time stamps in DA's new motion alleging 7 more violations of gag order.

But first this nugget by @KlasfeldReports about alleged gag violation.

On Monday, prosecutor told the judge:

“It’s entirely possible it was done within this courthouse.”

justsecurity.org/daily-courtroo… 2/ See some of the time stamps that DA identifies in new motion.⤵️

Monday 9:12 a.m.
Monday 10:26 a.m.
Tuesday 1:50 p.m.

To make these statements or have these statements made from within the courthouse would be to amplify the "contempt" of and for the court.

Watch this space:

At start of #TrumpTrial, Trump's violations of recent #GagOrder are likely to come up with key question being what sanctions Justice Merchan may threaten or impose.

Great discussion here ⬇️ between @ErinBurnett, District Attorney @Mimirocah1 and @OMGrisham

DA Rocah: "Trump coming out and calling them liars is about as stark a violation as you can get." 2/

On left:

#GagOrder provision prohibiting former President Trump making public statements about witnesses in Manhattan criminal case.

On right:

Trump public statements about witnesses in violation of the gag order (plus one about judge's daughter)

Important new analysis

Donald Trump announced a vigil for #January6th inmates in DC jail and promised to free them.

Who exactly are they?

@just_security obtained official list.

Almost all of them (27 out of 29) are charged with assaulting law enforcement officers.

<thread> 2/ DC jail January 6th inmate Daniel Ball

Ball is charged with several felonies and misdemeanors. The felony charges include assaulting law enforcement officers by allegedly throwing an explosive device that detonated on at least 25 officers.