Trump claims Putin wouldn't have invaded under him. Biden promises to stand firm.
🧵As someone who spent a decade in Putin's prisons, let me give you the reality check of their claims
"Russia would've never attacked if I were president." - Trump
This is hypothetical and I don't see much evidence to support it, the state propaganda and Putin himself have been more sympathetic to Trump administration than the Biden administration.
What we know for sure, however, is that if the Ukraine was giving the aid at the level it is now, the war would be over within months. He didn't meet appropriate level of unity and decisiveness in the West and started playing the long game.
And he decided to drag the war on hoping that the West would get tired of supporting Ukraine - which, accidentally, it did and there was a huge pause in munition delivery which helped him regroup and take more of an offensive position.
"We're no longer respected." - Trump
And what's the response? If it's going home... It only diminishes the U.S. influence and creates power vacuums to be filled by authoritarian players. Respect is not earned by abandoning allies, it's earned through consistent principles.
"Every time that Zelenskyy comes to this country, he walks away with $60 billion dollars, he's the greatest salesman ever" - Trump
Putin bets $120bn/year (5.4% of Russia's GDP) on the war effort. US counters with $106bn total aid to Ukraine - a fraction of the $850bn of the U.S. defense budget. Freedom isn't free, failure to support Ukraine now will cost far more later.
"We're needed to protect the world because our own safety is at stake." - Biden
The most effective way to deter an aggressive, authoritarian leader like Putin is to communicate in a language he understands - the language of strength and consequences.
"Do you think he'll stop when he – if he takes Ukraine? What do you think happens to Poland?" - Biden
It's very much in Putin's record to start wars when his popularity goes down. It's his signature method of consolidating support. For that reason, he must be defeated in Ukraine, or he will not stop there. Western powers have armed Ukraine just enough for it not to lose but not enough for it to win decisively. This needs to change.
"I will have that war settled between Putin and Zelenskyy as president-elect before I take office on January 20th. I'll have that war settled." - Trump
The war will continue until the collapse of Putin's regime. The West must help Ukraine achieve a ceasefire on its own terms. Preserving Ukrainian independent statehood is a strategic win for Europe. The defeat of Putin's regime is a victory for Russians as well.
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Oceans and distance are not the reason to abandon Ukraine.
Make no mistake: NATO will be next if the U.S. abandons Ukraine.
🧵Here's why
Putin needs war to achieve internal goals. A weak West is a perfect means for this. It's is how he consolidates support within the country. It is a justification for poverty, corruption, and lawlessness.
If the West had immediately provided Ukraine with the support it is providing now, the invasion would have been completely repelled within a few weeks.
Putin and Kim Jong Un just signed a mutual defense pact that echoes Cold War-era alliances.
🧵Here's why this "anti-West alliance" should worry you:
The visit to Pyongyang – his first since 2000, when Putin took power – has been lauded by Russian state media as proof that, despite the West's best efforts, he has not been isolated from world affairs
Before arriving in North Korea, Putin wrote an op-ed for the country's newspaper in which he thanked Kim Jong-un for his 'firm support' of the illegal invasion of Ukraine – an obvious allusion to the thousands of artillery rounds Pyongyang has provided
Western isolationism isn't just a retreat; it's an open invitation for tyranny to spread unchecked across the globe.
🧵Last week’s BRICS summit showed the extent of the challenge – and it needs to be met head-on
Last week, BRICS foreign ministers gathered in Russia and reiterated their commitment to a ‘multipolar world’ – that is, one in which Western influence is limited, while dictators like Xi and Putin have free reign to cause instability
The BRICS bloc has been expanding recently – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have been joined by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE and Iran, with Malaysia likely to follow
African students came to Russia seeking a better future — now Putin is using them as cannon fodder in his illegal war.
🧵Here's what you should know
Why is this happening?
As much as Putin might want us all to believe that the war has majority support in Russia, whatever support does exist does not translate to people being willing to put their own lives on the line bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Russian men have poured across the borders into neighboring countries, and many of those who could not leave have done whatever they could to avoid being mobilized into a war that is increasingly seen as Putin’s personal endeavor reuters.com/world/europe/r…
The hard right is on the rise in Europe, with isolationist parties securing the largest share of votes in several countries.
1/15 🧵While respecting Europeans' choice, I'd like to caution newly elected representatives:
While centrist and liberal parties are projected to retain a majority in the European Parliament, the hard right has increased its share of seats and may have greater influence on policy decisions
2/15
Far-right parties won the largest share of the votes in France, Italy, Hungary, Belgium and Austria, and finished second in Germany, Romania and the Netherlands