Joni Askola Profile picture
Jun 29, 2024 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/16 Cosplaying a war of attrition: while russia's mindset and strategies still reflect those of WW2, it is crucial to acknowledge that russia is not the USSR and lacks the support of the US lend-lease this time. Image
2/16 russia continues to operate under the assumption that it is the USSR and can prevail in a war of attrition, akin to WW2. russia is not the USSR and lacks the support of lend-lease. A war is not solely determined by numbers, but even in this aspect, russia is losing. Image
3/16 Using brute force tactics, as russia has done, may result in the occupation of a 30km2 city after months and tens of thousands of casualties. However, this approach is not sustainable, considering that russia lacks the manpower to employ it across Ukraine as a whole. Image
4/16 russia is taking incredibly high losses, with approximately 20 000 troops perishing in the effort to capture Bakhmut. When factoring in the injured and missing troops, russia lost the equivalent of an entire European country's army for the conquest of a small city. Image
5/16 Contemporary warfare encompasses more than just numerical superiority. Elements like motivation, training, tactics and technology play crucial roles in determining outcomes. Although numerical superiority can be beneficial, russia's numerical advantage is insufficient. Image
6/16 This war represents an act of aggression as imperialist russia seeks to reclaim its former colony. In such a war, the defending country, Ukraine, has a much deeper and more existential stake, unlike russia. Image
7/16 Ukraine has the ability to mobilize men from Kyiv to defend its very existence, whereas russia cannot mobilize men from Moscow and Saint Petersburg for a futile war of conquest. Image
8/16 russia's numerical advantage is not substantial enough to secure victory, as offensive operations require significantly more manpower. Losses in Avdiivka and its surroundings over the past few months demonstrates that the attritional aspect does not favor russia at all. Image
9/16 Putin does not wield the same level of authoritarian control over his population as the leaders of the USSR did. His fear of his own population is so profound that he does not even dare to initiate a new mobilization. Image
10/16 The necessity for russia to continually raise pay to attract recruits, the utilization of most available prisoners for frontline deployment, and the resort to employing foreign mercenaries all highlight the abject failure of this war. Image
11/16 Despite sustaining approximately 500,000 casualties, russia has failed to capture any of the 23 regional capitals and special status cities that Ukraine occupied at the onset of the full-scale war. Image
12/16 russia is losing more equipment than it can manufacture. Its survival has been heavily reliant on vast reserves of Soviet equipment, which are expected to be depleted within the next 12 to 24 months, leading to a challenging situation thereafter. Image
13/16 Essentially, russia is engaged in a war of attrition that it initiated and is unable to win due to its inability to achieve unrealistic strategic objectives. Meanwhile, Ukraine is displaying courageous resilience in the war. Image
14/16 russians are willing to accept significant casualties due to the deeply ingrained imperialistic, revanchist, and materialistic attitudes prevalent among the average russian. As long as victory seems attainable, the average russian is inclined to overlook casualties. Image
15/16 While victory is unattainable for russia, it may take years for the average russian to come to terms with this reality, largely due to the highly effective nature of propaganda. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jul 10
1/6 Human safaris in Kherson — Daily war crimes the world ignores.

russia is punishing civilians for refusing to surrender and be russified. This is a crime against humanity.

What are we waiting for to act? Image
2/6 In Kherson, russia has turned drone warfare into a grotesque spectacle.

FPV drones are used to hunt civilians — yes, civilians.

This isn’t speculation. It’s documented. Locals call it the human safari.

The worst part? russia shares videos of these attacks like trophies Image
3/6 These drones target cars, ambulances, volunteers — even pedestrians.

russian telegram channels openly declare any moving object a target.

The goal? To terrorize, punish, and break the will of Ukrainians who refuse to surrender and be russified Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 10
1/4 Another night of terror in Kyiv.

Another wave of russian drones and missiles targeting civilians.

How long will we let this go on before doing something real about it?

We need to finally make Putin understand that actions have consequences.

If we don’t, we are complicit Image
2/4 russia just launched its second mass strike in a row — not for military gain, but to terrorize.

These attacks kill, maim, and traumatize civilians.

And the world watches.

What are we waiting for? Image
3/4 Every time russia does this, we must respond:

- More sanctions
- More weapons to Ukraine
- More consequences

Send Ukraine cruise missiles. Fund its defense industry. Help it build more drones, more cruise missiles, and more ballistic missiles to strike back — hard Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 8
1/7 🇨🇳 china hawks fell for it again.

Trump talks tough on china — but his actions tell a different story.

The ”pivot to Asia” he promised? It’s a scam.

Here’s how Trump is actually helping china while pretending to confront it: Image
2/7 Trump has used the ”pivot to Asia” as a cover to disengage from Europe, not to counter china.

He’s bombed Iran, shifted US focus to the Middle East, and projected weakness on Ukraine—signaling to Beijing that the US won’t stand up for its allies and interests Image
3/7 His foreign and defense policy teams — including Hegseth, Colby, and others — talk endlessly about china, but their real goal has been to undermine NATO and weaken the West.

They have alienated key allies like South Korea and Japan, who are essential to defending Taiwan Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 7
1/11 🏅🇷🇺 Vatnik Hall of Fame: Part 7

Time to induct 10 more figures into the gallery of grifters, propagandists, and useful idiots doing the Kremlin’s work Image
2/11 Andrew & Tristan Tate

The Tate brothers have praised Putin, echoed Kremlin narratives, and built a fanbase steeped in anti-Western, authoritarian rhetoric.

Their content often overlaps with pro-russian talking points, especially on NATO, and ”globalist” conspiracies Image
3/11 Jan Marsalek

The former Wirecard COO vanished after a $2B fraud scandal—only to resurface in russia.

He’s believed to be under GRU protection and linked to espionage operations across Europe.

A literal spy-thriller villain turned real Image
Read 11 tweets
Jul 6
1/7 The Master of Gaslighting: Elon Musk is launching a new political party.

But don’t be fooled—this isn’t about unity or reform. It’s the next step in a long game: Musk and his technofascist crew used Trump to get a foot in the door.

Now they want to take over the whole house Image
2/7 Let’s not forget: Musk went all-in on Trump in 2024.

He overdramatized the election, called Trump ”America’s last chance,” and helped push him back into power.

Now he’s pretending to oppose the uniparty? Please.

Don’t let this massive scammer gaslight you! Image
3/7 As I’ve said before: Trump was just a stepping stone.

Musk and his friends just used him to gain influence, install allies, and normalize their presence in the White House.

Now that they’ve extracted what they need, they’re done with him—and they’re planning for 2028 Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 5
1/17 Trump a russian asset?

Let’s break down the key moments that show a consistent pattern of behavior aligning with russian interests.

Buckle up: the list is long and far from exhaustive Image
2/17 Paul Manafort: The Kremlin’s man in Trump’s campaign.

Trump’s ex-campaign chair, Paul Manafort, shared internal polling data with Konstantin Kilimnik—a russian intelligence officer.

The Senate Intel Committee called it a grave counterintelligence threat Image
3/17 Trump fired officials investigating russia.

He fired FBI Director Comey after he refused to drop the investigation into Michael Flynn’s russia ties.

Trump told russian officials in the Oval Office that firing Comey relieved great pressure Image
Read 17 tweets

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