1/16 Cosplaying a war of attrition: while russia's mindset and strategies still reflect those of WW2, it is crucial to acknowledge that russia is not the USSR and lacks the support of the US lend-lease this time. 
2/16 russia continues to operate under the assumption that it is the USSR and can prevail in a war of attrition, akin to WW2. russia is not the USSR and lacks the support of lend-lease. A war is not solely determined by numbers, but even in this aspect, russia is losing.
3/16 Using brute force tactics, as russia has done, may result in the occupation of a 30km2 city after months and tens of thousands of casualties. However, this approach is not sustainable, considering that russia lacks the manpower to employ it across Ukraine as a whole.
4/16 russia is taking incredibly high losses, with approximately 20 000 troops perishing in the effort to capture Bakhmut. When factoring in the injured and missing troops, russia lost the equivalent of an entire European country's army for the conquest of a small city.
5/16 Contemporary warfare encompasses more than just numerical superiority. Elements like motivation, training, tactics and technology play crucial roles in determining outcomes. Although numerical superiority can be beneficial, russia's numerical advantage is insufficient.
6/16 This war represents an act of aggression as imperialist russia seeks to reclaim its former colony. In such a war, the defending country, Ukraine, has a much deeper and more existential stake, unlike russia.
7/16 Ukraine has the ability to mobilize men from Kyiv to defend its very existence, whereas russia cannot mobilize men from Moscow and Saint Petersburg for a futile war of conquest.
8/16 russia's numerical advantage is not substantial enough to secure victory, as offensive operations require significantly more manpower. Losses in Avdiivka and its surroundings over the past few months demonstrates that the attritional aspect does not favor russia at all.
9/16 Putin does not wield the same level of authoritarian control over his population as the leaders of the USSR did. His fear of his own population is so profound that he does not even dare to initiate a new mobilization.
10/16 The necessity for russia to continually raise pay to attract recruits, the utilization of most available prisoners for frontline deployment, and the resort to employing foreign mercenaries all highlight the abject failure of this war.
11/16 Despite sustaining approximately 500,000 casualties, russia has failed to capture any of the 23 regional capitals and special status cities that Ukraine occupied at the onset of the full-scale war.
12/16 russia is losing more equipment than it can manufacture. Its survival has been heavily reliant on vast reserves of Soviet equipment, which are expected to be depleted within the next 12 to 24 months, leading to a challenging situation thereafter.
13/16 Essentially, russia is engaged in a war of attrition that it initiated and is unable to win due to its inability to achieve unrealistic strategic objectives. Meanwhile, Ukraine is displaying courageous resilience in the war.
14/16 russians are willing to accept significant casualties due to the deeply ingrained imperialistic, revanchist, and materialistic attitudes prevalent among the average russian. As long as victory seems attainable, the average russian is inclined to overlook casualties.
15/16 While victory is unattainable for russia, it may take years for the average russian to come to terms with this reality, largely due to the highly effective nature of propaganda.
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