Armchair Warlord Profile picture
Jun 30, 2024 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Putin HATES THEM!

Or does he?

Top 10 Failed Wonderweapons of the Ukrainian War⬇️ Image
My criteria are simple - these are weapons (defined loosely) that were heavily hyped by Western pundits that actually failed in service.

So, for example, the Leopard 2 isn't on here because it's actually a perfectly functional tank that has performed in line with other tanks.Image
10. The Ukrainian Foreign Legion

After the war kicked off, Western outlets began encouraging adventurous foreigners to travel to Ukraine to fight. These new recruits were housed in barracks at the Yavorov Training Ground.

One Russian missile strike largely ended the project. Image
9. Switchblade

This "drone in a can" was supposed to allow Ukrainian troops to deliver lethal, precise strikes at standoff range.

While drones have transformed the Ukrainian battlefield, Switchblade itself was complicated and ineffective. I've seen five used in two years.Image
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8. NASAMS

This surface-to-air AMRAAM adaptation fell prey to the problem that all SAM adaptations of air-to-air missiles do - missiles designed for high-speed aerial launch don't have the legs to perform from a dead stop.

Far from "closing the sky," this system has been MIA. Image
7. Excalibur shells

This GPS-guided precision 155mm artillery shell performed well in Iraq and Afghanistan, but Russian jamming has apparently rendered it ineffective on the far harsher Ukrainian battlefield. Image
6. The Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb

This LEGO-esque combination of a 227mm MLRS booster and a GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb was supposed to allow the AFU to stretch their HIMARS systems out to 150km.

The slow-moving glide bombs were shot down easily by Russian air defenses. Image
5. Bayraktar TB-2

Ukraine bought these Turkish drones en masse after their good showing in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War.

As it turns out, Russian air defenses are a little stiffer than Armenian ones. They were shot down in droves and quickly withdrawn from combat. Image
4. Challenger 2

The UK donated a company of its premiere war machines to the Ukrainian cause, with shills hyping them to the moon as indestructible.

The Russians were unimpressed and blew one up. The British government reacted by demanding the rest be withdrawn from combat.
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3. Javelin

When the war started this IR-guided fire-and-forget antitank missile was hyped as a magic wand that could delete Russian tanks at the push of a button.

Battlefield conditions and Russian countermeasures degraded its performance and it has rarely been observed in use. Image
2. The "Arsenal of Democracy"

The Western powers vowed to keep Ukraine supplied with everything needed to win the war. They have failed to do so.

Once derided as a "gas station with nukes," Russia produces substantially more war materiel than the entire Western Alliance. Image
1. Sanctions

The most comprehensive sanctions regime in history, intended to collapse the Russian economy and force Putin to surrender, comprehensively backfired.

Russia is now wealthier than ever despite fourteen rounds of sanctions, while European economies wither by the day. Image

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More from @ArmchairW

Jan 8
The closest historical analogy to the Ukrainian War I can think of is the American Civil War - ironically a conflict that Europeans have always shied away from carefully studying.

A thread.⬇️ Image
The underlying causes of the American Civil War festered for decades, finally erupting into open conflict after a series of political calculations and miscalculations brought down a national compromise that increasingly resembled a house of cards. Image
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Ditto Ukraine. I've said elsewhere the number of political offramps available to Western leaders to avoid this war were so numerous that the fact war broke out can only be explained as the result of anti-Russian policy - clearly miscalculated policy given the results thus far. Image
Read 22 tweets
Oct 15, 2024
Let's bust some propaganda.

Top 10 pro-Ukrainian talking points - and why they're nonsense.⬇️ Image
10. Ukraine is a democracy!

False. The last free and fair election in Ukraine - not held under an ultranationalist jackboot after the 2014 coup - was in 2010.

All elections in Ukraine have been suspended since 2022, and Zelensky's five-year term from 2019 expired months ago. Image
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9. Russia is an autocracy!

False. Vladimir Putin and United Russia enjoy approval ratings among the Russian public that are extremely high, even in polling conducted by Western-backed, anti-Putin organizations.

Putin is popular enough to win any election held in Russia handily. Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 15, 2024
How many plans has NATO gone through to try to beat Russia in Ukraine?

Let's count 'em! Image
Plan A: The FGM-148 Javelin

It seems absurd now, but in late 2021 NATO's leadership thought Javelin was a tank-deleting magic wand that would deter Putin from challenging Zelensky's scheme to conquer the LDPR.

Javelin failed in service and is a rare sight on the battlefield. Image
Plan B: The Kazakh Gambit

The West quite obviously fomented an uprising in Kazakhstan in January 2022 in hopes of distracting Russia from the then-boiling Ukrainian crisis.

Didn't work. CSTO troops arrived and helped the Kazakh government crush the would-be color revolution. Image
Read 16 tweets
Aug 18, 2024
Anatomy of a Fiasco: The Bridge at Glushkovo

Late last week the Ukrainian command, seeing their offensive in Sudzha-Koronevo bog down, tried to expand the flanks of their salient into Russian territory in Kursk. Part of this was an attack on the Glushkovo district to the west. Image
The Glushkovo District is somewhat isolated from the Russian interior by the Seim River.

Having learned the wrong lessons from their 2022 counteroffensive in Kherson, the AFU command decided to try to induce a wholesale Russian withdrawal by attacking the bridges over the Seim. Image
The large road bridge at Glushkovo, the district center, would be their first target. As in Kherson two years ago, HIMARS fired on the bridge with GMLRS. As in Kherson two years ago, it was ineffective.

Unlike in Kherson two years ago, the Russians killed the HIMARS launcher.
Image
Read 8 tweets
Aug 16, 2024
Today was probably the worst day for the Armed Forces of Ukraine since February 2022.

Let's walk through it.

The Russians started the day off by destroying two HIMARS launchers at their hide site in Sumy. This has likely ended GMLRS support for the Kursk operation temporarily.

Next to emerge was a video of a MiG-29* struck at an airfield near Dnipropetrovsk, just as it was being armed and the pilot had climbed in for preflight.

Once again the Russians coldly waited to cause maximum casualties among key AFU personnel.

* initially reported as an Su-24
13 Ukrainian soldiers were caught on camera surrendering in Kursk, and today was the first day I didn't even hear substantive rumors of new AFU advances in the area. Instead they seem to have lost considerable ground.
Read 12 tweets
Jun 23, 2024
Apparently four missiles were shot down at sea, with one hit far enough into its final dive that falling submunitions still killed several civilians.

As this occurred on a Sunday afternoon and the nearest military target is three miles away, this was likely a terror attack.⬇️

First of all, I'd like to note the speed with which Ukrainian propagandists, while still celebrating the deaths of Russian vacationers, have come around to a remarkably pro-Russian position while commenting on this event: (1) that Russian air defenses shoot down pretty much everything fired at Crimea; (2) that the Russian Ministry of Defense generally puts out accurate information to the public; and (3) that civilian casualties from downed enemy missiles and malfunctioning interceptors are the responsibility of the defender rather than the attacker. I'm sure they won't immediately do another 180-degree turn as soon as they are presented with a less convenient fact pattern.

Secondly, the range at which this attack was delivered (>160km from any point of UKR-held territory) indicates that the Ukrainians have received a number of M39A1 extended-range ATACMS missiles with cluster warheads. There were only a small number of these manufactured around the turn of the century and apparently most were subsequently converted to unitary models, suggesting that the US is already scraping the munitions barrel to keep Ukraine supplied with missiles (and explaining our reluctance to hand any over previously). ATACMS activity has certainly fallen off dramatically in the last two weeks.

Thirdly, as I pointed out upthread, the nearest obvious military target is an airfield located three miles north of this particular beach. There's also an area of farmland about a mile and a half to the east that may serve as a SAM positioning area. Ballistic missiles that get clipped late in their flight don't fall three miles away from their intended targets, and if the Ukrainians had been interested in a military target they would have done what they always do and attacked in the middle of the night. They struck instead on the afternoon of Orthodox Pentecost Sunday, when the streets and beaches would be crowded with civilians. As such - and in light of a pattern of Ukrainian attacks targeting civilians in Russia gathered for holidays - it is likely this attack was intended to terrorize civilian residents and vacationers in a wealthy Sevasopol suburb and the work of Russian air defenses prevented an enormous number of deaths and injuries.
Addendum: Just to provide some visual context on exactly how far this beach is from the airfield in question - it's farther from it than from the harbor! Image
Addendum 2: It's not clear from the way I wrote it, but there were five missiles in total - four shot down at sea plus one over the beach in question.

I apologize, should have been clearer.
Read 5 tweets

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