Thread by @RonNehring

The Democrats are in a tough spot. Making a change at the top of the ticket creates countless opportunities Republicans can and will exploit -- just as the Dems would do to Republicans if the situation were reversed. Here are some of them. 🧵

DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE. The Democrats will be on defense now for months. It's all defensive, introspective hand wringing. Trump's long list of legal problems blown right off the front page and Sunday shows. Whatever the Dems do, they can't score until they get past this.

NO MATTER WHO THEY PICK, MISTAKE. Biden could be replaced with Mother Teresa and the Lord himself and we will pound the snot out of them (metaphorically) as the wrong choice. No replacement has been vetted at the national level. Every past state story is a new national one.

SOFT AS SANDPAPER. Gretchen Whitmer? Gavin Newsom? These people have about as much appeal as washing your new Tesla with an angle grinder. They are in position for their states, out of position nationally. Appeal to left wingers very different than non-political voters.

CALL THE LAWYERS. More than 60 state and federal Democratic committees are now all on hold. Who's going to order Biden-Harris yard signs this week? Nobody. It's all frozen. Operational nightmare.

Spin up a new national structure for a new ticket? #BillableHours

TOSS IT ALL. Every shred of research, polling, focus groups, A/B testing, analytics, all gets tossed. Except the file on Trump. He hasn't changed. But how the Dems compare to him is completely out the window.

BIGGEST NEW OFFICE AT THE DNC? RAPID RESPONSE AND DAMAGE CONTROL. Remember when Sarah Palin burst onto the national stage? Newsom and Whitmer aren't Palin, but every overdue library book and parking violation back in Fairbanks became a national story in 2008.

KAMALA IS HOLDING ON LINE 1. Dump the woman POC from the national ticket in today's Democratic Party? Good luck with that. Not give her the top slot after 4 years of telling the world she can do the job? I'll bring the popcorn for that sh-tshow.

THE GHOST OF LBJ. Incumbent Dem Pres LBJ dropped out March 31, 1968.

Result: Nixon (R).

Dems have three fewer months to prep for a change in the ticket than they had in '68. Glad the DNC pays time-and-a-half for overtime.

MEET MR. STABILITY: DONALD TRUMP. Only the chaos unleashed by Biden's collapse could make Donald Trump look like the Rock of Gibraltar by comparison. Biden's whole premise in 2020 was he was stable vs. Trump is nuts. "Hey ChatGPT, we need a new narrative."

WHO IS GRETCHEN WHITMER'S ARIZONA CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN? Any national nominee has a team of leaders in every state running the shop. Biden leaves, who fills these slots? Newsom, Whitmer, whoever, no teams outstate of their own state. Keep the Biden people? No relationship.

AIPAC WOULD LIKE A WORD. Biden is way to the right of the Dem activist base on Israel-Gaza. DNC delegates sympathetic to CEASEFIRENOW crowd now doing the math on how many votes they have on the floor. A deal will be struck. Watch what goes in the platform.

LET'S PLAY DNC JENGA. Newsom-Whitmer? Whitmer-Newsom? No POC on the ticket? Nope. Kamala-Newsom? Who's gonna move? (see: Dick Cheney). Also, not happening. Rando-Kalama? Not promote the Veep? Good luck. Kamala-Rando? Nope.

BETTER ORDER MORE CIGARS for that smoke-filled room. So who's going to decide this? Biden? Can't back anyone other than the word-salad veep. Open convention? LOL. Whole primary system designed to prevent that. Also great way to nominate...wait...BERNIE!

BERNIE ❤️CALVIN COOLIDGE, the last presidential nominee from the miniscule great state of Vermont. If there is one guy most aligned with DNC delegates, it's the (very) senior Senator from The Green Mountain State. And no Dem from a swing district wants that guy on the ticket.🍿

BRING MORE C4. Nobody blows up the broad Dem coalition while simultaneously turning off suburban voters faster than the guy who took his honeymoon in the Soviet Union. GOP leaders prayed every day in 2020 Bernie would get the nod.

HEY, WHO'S GOT BETO'S NUMBER? Every failed Dem candidate and fantasy camper is looking for their ActBlue login info and calling former staffers to gin up a "Draft (name of washed up candidate)" graphic for the website. Trial balloon armada incoming.

KNOCK, KNOCK. So what are all the Dem-union "community organizers" going door to door in Wisconsin saying this week? All their messaging is frozen like the Arctic ice sheet, but no amount of emissions is going to make that melt until...let's just say it'll be a while.

THE HOUSE COMES BACK MON, JUL 8 and every political reporter is going to be wandering Canon, Longworth and Rayburn buildings hoping to run into rando Dem and ask whether Biden should drop out, and whether word salad veep is qualified. #Awkward