Thread by @Taniel

JUST IN: Polls closed in first round of France elections. Two main French TV estimates (combines early results & exit poll) show strong far-right.

Far-right bloc: ≈34%
Left bloc: ≈28-29%
Macron bloc: ≈20-22%

What does this mean? What'll happen? Follow this thread ⬇️

Both estimates project that far-right will dominate the upcoming National Assembly — falling short so far of absolute majority, but not unattainable next week.

Left bloc projected 2nd. Macron's bloc, to collapse < 100 seats.

NOTE: This is projections of what'd happen NEXT WEEK.

First: If you are new to my timeline & need background, here's my thread from three weeks, with a lot of background.

The basic: This is largely a 3-way battle between far-right bloc, left bloc, & Macron bloc, with conservatives as a smaller fourth bloc.

https://x.com/Taniel/status/1799880142384501115

BIG TAKEAWAY: Far-right (RN) ahead, but can it win enough runoffs to win next week?

In most places there'll be *3-way runoffs* instead of 2-way runoffs. If no one drops out, it'll greatly help RN.

Macronists often 3rd, so all eyes on them right now. Will they drop out when so?

Leader of the PS (left bloc member) just spoke. He said:

Whenever PS candidate is in runoff & in 3rd place, & far-right can win, their candidate will drop out to block far-right.

Will Macronists? Bayrou, a Macronist leader, just tied himself in knots to say nothing precise.

People like Bayrou and Macron, if they don't change their tune in coming hours, are setting themsleves up in history books here: If the far-right comes into power in France for the first time since the 1940s next week due to these 3-ways, this is the moment that's cementing it.

NEWS: Melenchon, left leader of LFI, just said his priority will be to block far-right in runoff. He says his party will drop out from runoff if RN is 1st & LFI is 3rd.

So: all left parties will have this approach—drop out to block far-right.

Macronists haven't followed this.

I'm getting questions about how a runoff can be 3-way versus a 2-way.

Explanation:

https://x.com/Taniel/status/1807432290710003757

NEWS: Les Républicains, the conservative party that's now a distant 4th & are eliminated most places, just said they WON'T give any recommendation for runoffs.

(When Sarkozy switched them to this position in 2015, it was hugely controversial. Now, very expected.)

DISTRICT RESULTS:

—Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right, WINS reelection in her northern district in the first round. She topped 50% & won't need a runoff.

—Francois Hollande, former center-left president, is first in 1st round. Likely goes to 3-way runoff against RN & LR.

Head of Green Party, Marine Tondelier, echoes other leaders of the Left bloc.

Calls for a new "republican front" against far-right.

Confirms left candidates in 3rd place will drop out from runoffs; left voters should vote for whoever is against far-right if left not in runoffs.

Results are in from many districts in north of France, where the far-right (RN) is very strong.

RN has already flipped one seat—without even needing a runoff.

And many RN incumbents who won for 1st time in 2022, often in surprises, just topped 50% & have already won without

Results are flashing district by district on French TV. At this hour, more rural districts are the ones reporting—so that affects what we're seeing.

Even with that caveat, RN numbers are so startlingly high. Places where RN was at 30-40% two years ago, now above 50% or close.

Edouard Phillippe, Macron’s 1st PM, just said:

Where Macronists are not in runoff, people should vote for a candidate of Left bloc, *if* that candidate is center-left (so PS+Green, not LFI).

Said his candidates shld drop out if in 3rd place, behind such center-left candidates.

Yaël Braun-Pivet, another prominent Macronist & the outgoing president of the Assembly, said something different: She said she could see backing center-left candidates, but *even then* it'll be individual analysis per district as to whether she does & whether Macronists drop out.

Here's where we are

—Far-right strong. Will they win a majority next week? Will depend in part of what rival blocs do.

—Left says they'll coalesce around Macronists where they're 3rd. For Macronists, it'll depend; different ppl singing different tunes. Next 44 hours decisive.

I presume all who follow me know this, but: Macron called elections 3 years early, for no clear reason. Even his cabinet didn't know until 1-2 hours before he announced it.

Now far-right on brink of power, & his party is poised to lose at least half its seats.

RESULTS in from 1st district in Correze, featuring former center-left President Francois Hollande.

Currently held by the conservatives, LR.

Left (Hollande) 38%
Far-right: 31%
LR: 29%
(Other 3%.)

All 3 advance. Unlikely anyone drops out. Makes it likely Hollande wins runoff...?

There will be some very unpredictable 3-way runoffs. Take a look at this one, in Brittany.

3 candidates made it thru:
Left bloc: 31.1%
Macron bloc: 30.7%
Far-right: 26%.
(Eliminated conservative: 7%.)

Can't count far-right out in this district in a week if everyone stays in

This is the kind of district where the Left's "drop out" rule (if local candidates follow it) will matter. In the Landes:

Far-right: 37%
Macronist (seat holder): 28%
Left bloc: 27%

All 3 advance. But 3rd candidate now expected to drop out, which could save Macronist.

NEW: Gabriel Attal, Macron’s current PM, spoke.

He sounded different, clearer, than earlier Macronists: We must “do everything” to block far-right.

Says Macronists shd drop out where it helps (unclear if everywhere). Says left no longer can have absolute majority & threat is RN

More data that some Macronists, where they can't win, realigning to help Left vs far-right.

In district below, the Macronist came 3rd, & just dropped out to block RN.

She was behind far-right & the left incumbent (Ruffin, a LFIer critical of Melenchon).

https://x.com/2022Elections/status/1807505760911344114

An example of how important runoff decisions are.

Marie-Caroline Le Pen, Marine Le Pen's sister, is first in her district with 40%.

Left bloc: 25.94%. Macronist candidate: 25.88%.

All 3 can advance to runoff. Unimaginable Le Pen loses unless a (the 3rd) candidate drops out.

So:

—Great night for far-right. Big surges all around France. Can win next week, but nothing certain.

—Left bloc 2nd. But not great for them: stable since 2022, not what they need to win overall.

—Macronists 3rd, will fall A LOT. But got just enough to still make many runoffs.

Important rule to remember—whether far-right wins or whether Assembly ends up in a very fragmented landscape (main options?)

There cannot be new elections for at least one full year.

July 7th Assembly will be what it is until summer of 2025 at the earliest, whatever it is.

2 neighboring districts. RN holds neither; in both, it came in 1st today—barely.

In one, Left is 2nd & Macronist is 3rd. In other, it's reverse.

Left has said it'll withdraw when it came in 3rd. That should block far-right in one. If Macronists do same, it may do same in other.

One of far-right's strongest areas: the Pas-de-Calais, in the north. They won 6 of 12 districts in 2022.

Today? They've already won as many today in the first round, without even needing a runoff.

And they're STRONGLY favored to win the other 6 in the runoffs. Sweep likely.

This is going to be a district-by-district situation.

Take this district in Normandy. Now held by the Left.

Far-right first, 41%. Left incumbent (Brun) 2nd at 34%.

Macronist candidate, eliminated, just asked her supporters to vote Brun to block far-right. Can Brun close gap?

Important development: A member of Macron's Cabinet, who won this Marseille seat in 2022, came in 3rd today behind the far-right & the left.

She advanced to runoff, but she just announced she'll drop out to help block far-right.

(Still, may be hard: far-right already at 45%.)

A new tune is emerging on TV in past hour: Several Macron spokespeople clearly signal they'll try for their bloc to ally with center-left MPs (from PS) & conservative MPs (from LR) to form some sort of governing coalition. (That'd involve left bloc splitting.)

A different sort of dynamic: Places RN can't win, but newly making runoffs.

Take this seat in Nantes region: 2022 vs. 2024 results.

In both, Left led 1st round; in 2022, they then won 2-way runoff against Macronist. This time, RN will be in runoff, effectively freezing results.

A big Macronist defeat (& Left gain) in Paris: Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire (the chief deputy, and also rival, of Mayor Anne Hidalgo) has won outright in the first round.

He ousts the 2022 winner, Macronist Clement Beaune (who was in Macron's cabinet until recently).

This is how far-right can thrive: In Aix en Provence, two Macronist incumbents came in 3rd behind far-right & left.

Both are refusing to drop out, one even calling on Left to drop out, per:

This would likely hand both districts to far-right. See:

https://x.com/RousseauAnna/status/1807542352459731203

One of the best areas for Left today: Val d'Oise (in the greater Paris region).

In 2022, Macronists got 6 seats & the left got 4.

Today, Macronists eliminated or 3rd everywhere. Left could sweep all 10... if Macronists drop out. Otherwise, far-right could win up to 5 seats.

Oh, a FOUR-WAY RUNOFF!

In the greater Lyon region, the incumbent conservative MP finishes *4th* with 20%.

Far-right 33%. Left 23%. Macronist 21%.

All four get > 12.5% of registered voters, so advance.

Will anyone drop out...? Otherwise, this flips to far-right.

Whether far-right wins next week will come down to the individual decisions of people like Macronist @APatault: She says she is unsure if she'll drop out from 3-way runoff.

She came in 3rd (24%) behind far-right & Left (each 32%).

Decision by Tuesday.

https://x.com/2022Elections/status/1807551939673981341

Here's another: Greater Paris region. Far-right 1st with 33%. But Left & Macronists are close behind.

The candidate who came in 3rd? The Macronist incumbent. What will they do?

No exaggeration to say this is what it'll come down to whether the RN has a majority.

Paris is in its own little world.

In 2022, its 18 districts split 9 Macronists, 9 for the Left.

Left won 10 seats today; it looks likely to win 1-2 more in the runoff. Macronists will win 7-8. (0 for far-right.)

Wild behavior by some candidates: This Macronist incumbent came in *3rd* (25%), behind the far-right (got 34%) & the left (Green Party member at 27%).

She says the left candidate should be the one to drop out, & leave her to beat the far-right. Chutzpah.

https://x.com/BabaultAlaure17/status/1807509158704398734

What I notice in a bunch of places: Macron's party did fine (much better than in EU elections from early June) in many places thanks to its incumbents.

In places where incumbent retired, it often collapsed.

Look at this seat: It's Macronist-held, but ENS party got just 9%.

EXTREMELY strong results for far-right in the Provence + Cote d'Azur area.

Yes, far-right will likely lose a handful of these districts where it's up here (IF runoffs consolidate), say in Marseille or Aix, maybe 1 in Nice.

But it'll come close to a sweep throughout otherwise.

Another extraordinarily strong area for the far-right: the Aisne, toward the northeast of France.

Far-right won 3 of 5 seats in 2022. It's already *flipped* the other 2 (one was held by conservatives, one by the left), topping 50% of the vote without needing a runoff.

Macron's bloc is favored to win 9 of the 11 seats that are reserved for French people living abroad, which would be the same share as in 2022. (The far-right is very low in these elections.) That could end up being... not an insignificant share of its caucus in the next Assembly.

All ballots in: NATIONAL RESULTS across all French districts.

—Far-right bloc (RN + Ciotti candidates): 33.15%
—Left bloc (Nouveau Front Populaire): 28.0%
—Macron bloc: 20.0%
—Conservative Party (LR): 6.6%

(Other right: ≈5%. Other left: ≈3%.)

For people who want to nerd out district by district (I assure you this is fun! so many possible configurations and unknowns!), you can find it all here:

resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives20…

The rare urban metropolitan area where the far-right is crushing it: Nice.

The far-right bloc has a shot at sweep all 9 districts in the Alpes-Maritimes 'county.' (Eric Ciotti, LR head-turned-Le Pen ally, favored to win reelection tho let's see what sort of runoff he faces.)

I just went thru all the districts.

I'm seeing more than 100 where the runoff is meant to be a 3-way, *and* where final result (whether the RN wins) could depend on whether the one of the 2 other candidate drops out.

That's a lot! Big stakes in what candidates do in next day.

Remember: When you win the Assembly, you have most of the powers in France. President has few defined counter-powers; e.g.: no veto.

A "cohabitation" is absolutely not a U.S.-style "split government." (Some fantasies I'm seeing of a Macron 'master plan' make little sense.)