Some believe American withdrawal would strengthen European unity but the opposite seems much more likely to me. Without American protection and political support, old conflicts would re-emerge and Europeans would have a much harder time working together
Is it possible for the European Union to emerge as a more powerful actor in the event that President Trump destroys NATO? For Europeans to come together to take care of their of their own security after decades of American protection? Sure, it's possible.
But look at western support for Ukraine and ask yourself how things would have gone without the Americans. Would Europeans have supported Ukraine as they did? Would they have provided more support? Or less?
Without Americans, Europeans would have been more vulnerable to Russian retaliation, there would have been less political pressure to send weapons and they would have had to entertain the idea that they may need those weapons to defend themselves against their neighbors some day
That doesn't mean there would be no European support for Ukraine, but I suspect there would be a much larger divergence between states than there is now. Repeat that year after year and it's easy to see how things could drift apart.
What I'm trying to say: We take a lot of things for granted but none of them are God-given. Americans could stop caring about Europe. The European Union could cease to exist and while much of Europe has been peaceful for decades, that could change. Things could get a lot worse.
/end
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