Political scientist and author of How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive. Writing The Hundred, a politics newsletter. Book: https://t.co/s1uOqiOa2b
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Jan 21 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
To survive in this new world, we need to be ready to just do things. It'll be imperfect and some people will lose out but if we cannot find the strength to agree to a trade deal that has been negotiated for more than 25 years (!) at a moment like this, we will get destroyed
I think the fundamental problem here (as usual) is that we elect politicians who are unwilling to adjust how they look at trade-offs. We elect people who aren't suited for the world we live in and as a result, we get exactly the policies we deserve
Jan 9, 2025 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Americans would do well to remember that much of their dominance isn't actually due to raw power. China can build aircraft carriers or use economic coercion but what makes the United States unique are its allies
Seen from Washington, the brilliance of the American order lies in its international appeal. DC doesn't have to force Danes or Germans or Canadians into accepting its dominance, they voluntarily support it because they think it's in their national interest
Jul 29, 2024 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
I'm not an expert on Venezuela but I've just written a book about the way tyrants lose power, so here's a thread with some thoughts
Maduro knows that losing power is incredibly dangerous because his regime has spent years stealing from the masses and harassing political opponents. If he's no longer in control, there's a good chance he ends up in prison or worse.
Jul 2, 2024 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Some believe American withdrawal would strengthen European unity but the opposite seems much more likely to me. Without American protection and political support, old conflicts would re-emerge and Europeans would have a much harder time working together
Is it possible for the European Union to emerge as a more powerful actor in the event that President Trump destroys NATO? For Europeans to come together to take care of their of their own security after decades of American protection? Sure, it's possible.
Jan 24, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
One final thought on the Leopard-Abrams saga: The main argument I've heard against sending Leopards (on their own) has been that they could lead to escalation by empowering the Ukrainians to beat Russia too hard.
Once you link Leopard to deliveries to Abrams deliveries, there are essentially two options: The Americans block and you don't end up sending Leopards. Or, and this is what seems to be happening, the Americans change course and both Leopards and Abrams are sent.
Jan 24, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The strategic genius that is Vladimir Putin has not only succeeded in forcing Germany to end its dependence on Russian energy but he has somehow manoeuvred himself into a situation in which Russian troops are about to face German battle tanks. What a colossal failure.
Social Democrats, as reluctant as they have been to change course, have gone from talking about the "impossibility of achieving peace in Europe without Russia" to delivering artillery to Ukraine so that Ukrainians can fight off the Russian invasion. That's big.
Jan 23, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
All I want for the week is for Chancellor Scholz to clearly state his position on tanks and explain it to voters. Do you want to deliver Leopards? Do you not want to deliver Leopards? Will you allow others to deliver Leopards? Will you block others from delivering Leopards? Why?
As it is right now, the debate could not be less productive. Everything has been obfuscated to such an extent that people can't even agree on basic facts. Is there a formal request for export approval from Poland? Would Scholz block it? If so, why?
