There are two thing here that are important.
The use of a 73mm BMP-1 gun as artillery is as good an indication Russian traditional tube artillery is 'supply constrained' as you want to find.
The prime mover shown is even more important.
RuAF systemic logistical collapse🧵
1/
The use of a 73mm BMP-1 gun as artillery is as good an indication Russian traditional tube artillery is 'supply constrained' as you want to find.
The prime mover shown is even more important.
RuAF systemic logistical collapse🧵
1/
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1808184329522274580
It tells us that Russian motor transport fleet is in worse shape than its tube artillery park.⬇️
It's a visual confirmation of a general motor transport shortage telling us why cholera outbreaks are happening to Russian troops along the Dnipro.
2/
It's a visual confirmation of a general motor transport shortage telling us why cholera outbreaks are happening to Russian troops along the Dnipro.
2/
Russia motor transport can't deliver enough fresh water to front trenches.
The latest @AndrewPerpetua video kill list of Russian motor transport shows three tactical trucks, four civilian cars, no Loaf/Scooby vans, one ATV and 25 motorcycles.
3/
The latest @AndrewPerpetua video kill list of Russian motor transport shows three tactical trucks, four civilian cars, no Loaf/Scooby vans, one ATV and 25 motorcycles.
3/
https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1808032863293415650
I'm making the call that we have just entered the sixth generation of Russian motor transport.
The photo clip is laying out all six generations.
This is the thread is where I described the first five.⬇️
4/
The photo clip is laying out all six generations.
This is the thread is where I described the first five.⬇️
4/
https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1798516375960588682
What this collapse of Russian motor transport means is we will/are seeing a systematic increase in Russian non-battle casualties from water borne intestinal disease like cholera.
Multiply the reported casualties by the Ukrainian MoD by about 1.75 to reflect that.
5/
Multiply the reported casualties by the Ukrainian MoD by about 1.75 to reflect that.
5/
That is, for every 1000 RuAF battle casualties, there will be another 750 solely from disease.
The lack of RuAF field sanitation caused by a lack of NCO's, a lack of water from no motor transport, & decaying bodies...
6/
The lack of RuAF field sanitation caused by a lack of NCO's, a lack of water from no motor transport, & decaying bodies...
6/
https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1804975693002166440
...mean Russian front line trenches have become "biologically unsafe" areas in the heat of Ukraine's spring/summer.
What does that mean number wise?
AFU General Staff summary for June 2024 said in part: "In total, the enemy’s losses in June amounted to 33,713 occupiers..."
7/
What does that mean number wise?
AFU General Staff summary for June 2024 said in part: "In total, the enemy’s losses in June amounted to 33,713 occupiers..."
7/
Given Russia's figure of 750,000 troops in occupied Ukraine a frontline trench tooth to tail ratio (T3R) of 15% places 112,500 mobiks in front line trenches.
Take 33,713 and multiply it by 1.75 and you get 58,998 Russian battle and disease casualties for June 2024.
8/
Take 33,713 and multiply it by 1.75 and you get 58,998 Russian battle and disease casualties for June 2024.
8/
IOW, 52% of Russian front line trench strength was lost in June 2024
The average battlefield life of a Russian mobik in June 2024 is eight to nine weeks before being killed, wounded or disabled by/dying from disease.
9/
The average battlefield life of a Russian mobik in June 2024 is eight to nine weeks before being killed, wounded or disabled by/dying from disease.
9/
That average is across the entire front and Army.
Most newly recruited mobiks are thrown in "meat assaults" in the first two weeks in Ukraine in various offensives & become casualties.
10/
Most newly recruited mobiks are thrown in "meat assaults" in the first two weeks in Ukraine in various offensives & become casualties.
10/
If those 'meat mobiks' survive, and are lucky, they are rotated out to a quiet place on the front and either survive until their unit is rebuilt for another meat assault or disease takes them.
11/
11/
BLUF:
Russia is not and cannot be fully replenishing its front line strength in Ukraine.
The use of Russian women prisoners in combat and the shipment of a DPRK division to Ukraine underline manpower shortage caused by this Russian systemic logistical collapse.
12/12 end
Russia is not and cannot be fully replenishing its front line strength in Ukraine.
The use of Russian women prisoners in combat and the shipment of a DPRK division to Ukraine underline manpower shortage caused by this Russian systemic logistical collapse.
12/12 end
@threadreaderapp unroll please
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