Carte générale du front nord le 10 mars 2022. L'armée Russe contrôle les routes principales, évite les villes sous contrôle sois de l'armée ukrainienne, soit des civils de la défense territoriale + forces locales (police). 2/9
Au nord est, peu ou pas de résistance Ukrainienne. Konotop, Mena et Hloukhiv sont sous le contrôle des civils qui refusent l'entrée de l'armée Russe qui prend soin de contourner ces villes.
Incertitude pour Chotska et Krolovets. 3/9
Autour de Tchernihiv et Nizhin, la 1ère brigade de chars, en partie encerclée résiste avec la 117ème brigade de défense territoriale de Tchernihiv.
Les principaux combats se déroulent au sud de Tchernihiv, l'armée Russe tente d'encercler la ville. 4/9
Entre Prylouky et Nizhyn, les unités de la 1ère armée de tanks de la garde ont percé les défenses à al jonction de la 58ème brigade motorisée et de la première brigade de chars autour du 3 mars 2022. 5/9
Devant Kiev, les unités Russes fatiguées par un voyage de 400km, des combats permanents contre les FS Ukrainiennes et la bataille de ralentissement va se confronter à la 72ème brigade mécanisée qui les attends. 6/9
Plus à l'est, à la frontière de l'oblast de Poltava, les unités Ukrainiennes mettent la pression sur les routes le long d'une ligne Prylouky-Romny-Hadiatch-Orkhtyrka.
La résistance se poursuit à Leybedine et Soumy. 7/9
Tout cela évidemment dans la perspective de la première véritable contre offensive de la guerre lorsque la 93ème brigade mécanisée repousse les Russes de Trostianets et libère Soumy de l'encerclement dans le prochain thread. 8/9
Je vais améliorer cette carte pour avoir une idée précise de l'ordre de bataille autour du 10-15 mars, lors de l'avancée maximale de l'armée Russe.
Merci à ceux qui me suivent depuis peu et ceux qui me suivent depuis le début ! 9/9
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There is a very big debate to know who really controls the city of Kostiantynivka, in the Donbas region.
Many maps are showing the city as Russian controled, which in my opinion is not true, as I will explain it here.
🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️
I gathered geolocations for the last 40 days in the city, from @UAControlMap, mainly done by @AudaxonX.
Those geolocations show flag videos, air, artillery and drone strikes as well as assault videos.
3 things you should know :
🔸We only see 5% maximum of the real situation on videos, those are known positions at a given moment, which is nowhere close to the reality on the ground.
🔸There is an important image assymetry. Russia is posting more videos of flags and few strikes while Ukraine doesn't publish flag videos but publish much more strikes. Thus, I have 146 places where Russian are confirmed present, against 94 Ukrainian. This doesn't mean there are more Russians than Ukraine, Russia published 70 videos of flags !
🔸On the map, we have plenty of areas undereported, with few Ukrainian positions when we know there are many or few Russian positions when we know there are many.
According to my observations, the situation is a 70/90 :
Ukrainian troops are present in 70% of the city while Russian troops are present in 90% of the city.
According to my informations, there are still more Ukrainians than Russians in the city, but the situation continues to worsen.
For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched a large mechanized assault in the Dobropilla-Drujkivka area
Two armoured columns reinforced by multiple unarmoured vehicles from the 90th tank division and the 41st/8th CAA attempted to breakthrough in the Shakove area.
As you can see in the quoted tweet, this area has been subjected to heavy airstrike campaign for more than one month, while it remained a secondary direction until may. You can see here in white the recent airstrikes impacts in this direction, the same one where Russia obtained a breakthrough last year. Azov 1st Corps, which has been successfully defending the area for nearly a year managed to prevent any armoured breakthrough, showing multiple destroyed vehicles and pontoon bridges. However, infiltrations are slowly getting more frequent and Russian soldiers are often recorded behind the current grey zone, despite the absence of visual proof. As you can see, Russian armies in this direction are not doing too much PR videos with flags, which is why we have fewer flag videos. This area is right now the most strategic of the Donbas, Russia absolutely needs to control it to be able to reach Dobropilla or Drujkivka to have a fire control over the roads leading to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Why did Russia launch a mechanized assault here ? The main reason is how difficult it is to get there. We've recently seen videos of an impressive number of logistical and assault unarmoured vehicles destroyed on roads leading to here. This area is one of the deadliest, with older Ukrainian fortifications complicating any movement. Launching a mechanized assault helps to bring hundreds of men close to the front (even if 150 die and 150 manage to reach those positions, all of them will be able to assault and infiltrate further in the coming weeks).
As I said a month ago, I was expecting a large scale assault here, in order to unblock the front leading to Drujkivka and Dobropilla. As Russian soldiers are infiltrating and consolidating into Kosiantynivka, they will slowly manage to take full control over the city (maybe until autumn, the same way it happened in Toretsk), now the priority for them is to prepare the next battle, for Drujkivka.
Ukraine's 🇺🇦 mid-range strike campaign against Russian 🇷🇺 logistics continues, with more than 1 350 strikes on trucks and vehicles since early may
Railways, air-defense systems and energy infrastructure is also being hit on a daily basis.
🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️
Yesterday, @414magyarbirds posted an update about strikes on the key R-280 highway, so called "Novorossia" road between Rostov and Crimea.
On this road alone, I have around 175 geolocalized trucks and vehicles hit since early may.
It is highly likely that the number of trucks and vehicles hit by Ukrainian drones this month will be higher than the previous one, especially since video compilations are much more centralised by the USF.
We should expect a large number of videos for the end of the month.
During the first week of July, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to target Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and logistics, hitting more than 240 vehicles, 34 per day.
Despite fewer coverage, these strikes continue to be a very big problem for Russian forces across occupied territories.
🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️
The number of strikes continue to increase, with nearly 600 trucks and vehicles hit in june 2026 (around 20 per day) and already 240 for the 1st week of july (34 per day).
All these strikes are only the confirmed ones from ukrainian videos, I do not count videos from the ground.
Today, the Ukrainian army of drones () published a compilation of nearly 200 strikes on trucks and vehicles near Crimea.
This video covers multiple units work for the 1st week of July. The good point ? Everything is proven. t.me/robert_magyar/…
Recently, new videos emerged of Russian soldiers showing their flag far behind the frontline.
What is important about that is the aim of these operations : to show to the Russian command.
1/9 ⬇️
Russian flag videos are almost always the same. One or two Russian soldiers walk along the front line for weeks, evading Ukrainian detection.
Upon reaching the rear, they spend a day wandering through an entire village with their flag, while a drone overhead films them.
They are often not armed and will stay in the village for a long time, hidden in a basement, most of the time being found and captured/killed and sometimes go back to their lines.
These soldiers are not meant to disrupt Ukrainian rear but to create the illusion Russia controls an area.