Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 3 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The use of crippled/wounded Russian men as soldiers is not the only or even the most important indicator that Russia has hit the mobilization wall⬇️

Nor are female prisoners, foreign mercs or DPRK soldiers.

Russia is now deploying Hitlerjugend-esque child-soldiers.

Wall🧵
1/
This trial use of 17 year olds by Putin reported by Ukraine's Center for National Resistance (CNR) closely mirrors the Hitlerjugend Division of the Waffen SS in the Normandy summer of 1944.

The end game of this desperation measure...

2/
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/388…
...in Feb/Mar 1945 was the Waffen SS using 14 year old kids.

Per the CNR Report:

"Currently, Russia is actively recruiting members of patriotic movements, in particular, the network of military education centers "Warrior" and "Yunarmiya" (Young Army). Teenagers aged 17

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...are being actively recruited to military enlistment offices to sign a contract upon reaching the age of majority,""

You don't have to be @PeterZeihan to see the demographic disaster this represents for Russia.

4/
Russian economics are in nearly the same position as Russian manpower.

The bar chart below showing the temporal speed with which a Trillion rubles in the state budget is being spent.

Is Russia spending more or is it inflation?

The answer is _YES_!
5/
A lot of the Russian GDP numbers you see are inflated by Western Keynesian economist book keeping delusion, post WW2, that artillery shells and missiles are a positive contributor towards national wealth.

They simply are not...

...and never have been

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Shells and missiles are in fact hazardous toxic waste worth far less than the raw material and labor inputs.

Anyone who as worked on demilitarizing old US cluster munitions past EPA annual pollution burn requirements for TNT knows this in their gut.

Keynesians? Not so much.
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Disproving that the WW2 American economy "grew," rather than turned useful economic output into hazardous toxic waste, is a big reality based 'ask' for Keynesian Economists from the 1940's onwards.

This delusion colors our policies towards Russia today.
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But that Keynesian GDP delusion is remarkably useful for "Escalation Managers" who are trying to sell "Russia Strong" to maintain their policies and phoney baloney jobs.

Even when you visually see that Russian motor transport is rapidly devolving ⬇️

9/
...like that Russian DIY leading edge conveyor above.

Nor is that the only place we are seeing Russian motor transport hitting the same mobilization wall as Russian manpower.

See RuAF WW2/1950's era motorcycle casevac⬇️

10/
Another post WW2 delusion supporting the "Russia Strong" narrative with the Keynesians GDP delusions is Western Logistical intelligence refusing to see Mobik animal labor logistics for 80 years.

11/
80% of the time involved in every Soviet/Russian truck logistical movement was spent loading and unloading the truck.

Col Ralph Peters & others looking at Soviet Afghanistan logistics saw it from 1979 to 1989...

...yet the delusion remained.

12/
Russian manpower, economics and motor transport are all headed towards Lanchester Square collapse in close formation.

But Western elites cannot see it any more than they saw the collapse of the Soviet Union coming.

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The summation of decaying Russian manpower, economic and motor transport trends makes Frederick W. Lanchester smile.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jul 3
There are two thing here that are important.

The use of a 73mm BMP-1 gun as artillery is as good an indication Russian traditional tube artillery is 'supply constrained' as you want to find.

The prime mover shown is even more important.

RuAF systemic logistical collapse🧵
1/
It tells us that Russian motor transport fleet is in worse shape than its tube artillery park.⬇️

It's a visual confirmation of a general motor transport shortage telling us why cholera outbreaks are happening to Russian troops along the Dnipro.

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Russia motor transport can't deliver enough fresh water to front trenches.

The latest @AndrewPerpetua video kill list of Russian motor transport shows three tactical trucks, four civilian cars, no Loaf/Scooby vans, one ATV and 25 motorcycles.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 1
The increased Ukrainian use of barbed wire tracks with the appearance of Russian "Motorcycle Dragoon's."

1/
And this post⬇️

The late Cold War Soviet Army, which both the Ukrainian & Russian Armies stem from, had a cultural aversion to barbed wire.

Russian "Motorcycle Dragoon's" seem to have cured the Ukrainian Army of this.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jun 29
The timeless, and refused to be recognized by Western Intelligence, realities of Russian Army logistics:

Mobik animal labor moving and removing ammunition from wooden boxes with wet and splinter-ridden hands.

And it has been that way for centuries.

Logistical intel🧵
1/
Image
Each of these "field depots" takes a Mobik work crew a lot of time to unload vehicles.

The time and numbers required to create this ammo depot is detectable by drones.

Because the Russian Army doesn't have pallets and forklifts.

2/
This is how Ukraine gets its military logistics from NATO.

Highly advanced mechanized logistics is easy to spot, assuming you look for it.

3/
Read 19 tweets
Jun 29
We have a new generation of Russian Forward/Leading Edge Conveyor (TPC in Russian) motor transport being deployed in Ukraine .

These things are important motor transport infrastructure for the Russians that Western intelligence pretends doesn't exist.

Logistical intel🧵
1/
A TPC is essentially a small two-wheel engine with handlebars pulling a cart.  This was a key piece of transport in Russian infantry units as it does distribution to the front lines from a tactical truck.

I did a thread on it here:

2/
Image
It is a small and slow transport, requiring zero skill, that a below average for conscripted mobik IQ individual could use to transport up mortar ammo and water - both are heavy and bulky - and Casevac

New, faster, generations are being fielded in the face of the FPV threat.

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Read 15 tweets
Jun 27
Yes, I've been looking for Russian train derailments that could be attributed to lack of foreign roller bearing for a while.

Now there may be one where I expected they would show up first.
1/
Something I've been expecting to see since September 2022 in fact.

See that post below:

2/
Is there reason to think about roller bearing failures now?

Yes there is.

Look at the map below.

3/

Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 23
I can't begin to tell you how scary/spooky reading this @AndrewPerpetua post is a historian of WW2 Pacific combat.

His list is literally the WW2 Imperial Japanese adaptation to US air & artillery firepower.

1/
Compare the photo clip to this:

"1: Digging deep. At least 2 meters, minimum. If not 3 or 4. The problem becomes the slope of the trench. It is better to dig into a hill if possible to reduce the slope."

2/ Image
Compare IJA Okinawa cave cover text & mortar position photo clips to this observation:

"2: Overhead cover. You must protect yourself against drones at a minimum. Protecting against artillery is likely impractical, but where possible it should be done."

3/

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Read 12 tweets

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