Thread by @minna_alander

European NATO countries’ security isn’t separate from that of Ukraine.

The better the war goes for Russia, the more capacity it has free to stir up incidents in other countries - likely below the threshold of armed conflict but it’s a quite direct threat nevertheless.

https://twitter.com/hanskundnani/status/1808528109789929964

Example from Finland: we had a peaceful year after submitting the NATO application as Russia was bogged down in Ukraine. Since fall 2023, after the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive, we’ve seen:
- instrumentalized migration
- several attempts at sabotage at water supply

- attempted break-ins (at least one successful) at other critical infrastructure, such as electricity supply.

These are almost daily in the news at the moment.

In Sweden and Norway attempts at photographing security sites and critical infrastructure (often with drones) have been recorded. GPS basically doesn’t work in our region.

So yep there’s a correlation between how the war is going for Russia and the frequency and magnitude

These incidents aren’t even only happening in Russia’s direct vicinity but also in France and Germany - in case I need to list countries that count.

Russian aggressive interference against France’s interests was the reason why Macron did such a volte face in his policy.

Here’s a recent report from our Nordic-Baltic region, in case @hanskundnani is interested in what kind of an actor Russia actually is, instead of making this about some foreign policy analysts’ prestige.

@hanskundnani …and here’s the report. We’re already observing a massive ramping up of all these activities and our report is nowhere near exhaustive.

Particularly good to keep an eye on what’ Russia is doing on Svalbard.
frivarld.se/rapporter/trac…

@hanskundnani And, please note, all of this is happening while the U.S. is still committed to NATO. So this isn’t as simple as “US commitment vs. Ukraine”.