Armchair Warlord Profile picture
Jul 4 2 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The US Army released a white paper a few months ago laying out their latest reorganization, in which they plan to cut a net 24,000 positions out of the force structure.

Let's walk through it.

First of all, it's not a pure cut: the Army is adding 8,000 jobs and cutting 32,000.⬇️

The additions largely relate to rebuilding basic air defense capability and finishing construction of the Army's five "Multi-Domain Task Force" brigades. The former is wise, although the US Army's portfolio of air defense systems remains woeful - for instance, the "new" M-SHORAD is a glorified Avenger, a system which has served as little more than Lancet fodder in Ukraine. There is nothing in the pipeline to my knowledge that will fill the critical "mid-tier" air and missile defense gap that the Russian Buk and Tor systems currently live (and do so much essential battlefield work) in.

The MDTF is a strange beast - it's essentially a holding bucket for theater-level fires and air defense capabilities that look an awful lot like what the Navy would want out of the Army if war were to kick off against China in the Pacific. Not a bad concept per se, although some of the systems - particularly the hypersonic missile - don't work well. Given the Army's ostensibly new emphasis on high-end war I'm confused by the decision to build out a bunch of separate brigades with corps capabilities and then not associate them with the various corps.

Now for the cuts. Beyond some efficiencies, these largely came from gutting significant capabilities out of Brigade Combat Teams. There were three big cuts made:
1. They got rid of Brigade Engineer Battalions in favor of presumably having a single engineer battalion at the divisional level. I note that the white paper misleadingly claims the BEB was part of some "counterinsurgency-based" force structure. BEBs were introduced to BCTs during the 2015 reorganization after the US Army had explicitly rejected large-scale counterinsurgency as a future mission. They were intended to enable BCTs to maneuver across the high-end battlefield with breaching, gap-crossing and additional route-clearance assets.

Ergo, this makes BCTs - and the division as a whole, which is apparently now supposed to be the Army's basic tactical unit - considerably less capable than previously. I believe this move was taken purely as a result of the recruiting crisis due to difficulties in getting people to sign up to be sappers.
2. Once again citing "counterinsurgency force structure," they're getting rid of cavalry squadrons (for my foreign readers, reconnaissance battalions) in most light infantry and Stryker-motorized BCTs. Claiming these organizations were intended to do COIN is even more ridiculous than claiming the BEBs were - brigade cavalry squadrons go all the way back to the original Brigade Combat Team reorganization around 2004, based on force planning from the 1990s. As is well known, the Army institutionally sneered at the thought of doing COIN at the time. These organizations are intended for high-end combat.

Thus, light and medium BCTs are going to be far less independent of Division than previously given they're going to have few reconnaissance assets of their own - assets that were designed to be used in conventional, linear battle. As with the engineers, I suspect this was not driven by rational force design decision but rather by the recruiting crisis - I'm guessing it's quite difficult to get people to sign up to be cav scouts these days.
3. They're getting rid of the antitank companies in light infantry battalions and downgrading them to platoons. Not kidding. These, also, are not some COIN thing (my illustration aside, antitank teams aren't the most useful asset for winning over the local populace), they've been a part of American infantry battalion organization for a very long time. Again, this was likely a move made because of infantry recruiting shortfalls rather than any tactical requirement given the self-evident need for large amounts of antitank weapons to fight, eh, basically anyone these days.

Now, the ostensible counterweight to this is the fact the light units are going to be getting M10 Booker light tanks at a rate of one battalion per division. The problem is that this is (1) still less firepower given that any given brigade can now expect to have two "heavy direct fire" company-equivalents instead of three; and (2) the M10 is a vehicle the size of a small barn with a bad gun and worse armor. Coming back to recruitment, tank units are also a lot lighter on manpower than infantry ones!

The upshot of these cuts within the BCTs are that "new" BCTs - particularly on the light end of the force structure - will be considerably less capable than their predecessors and will now be reliant on Division for engineering support, reconnaissance, and even some augmentation of maneuver assets - and there will now be fierce competition for these assets within the Division because there's going to be a lot less of them to go around. This is actually going to change how the US Army fights on the brigade and divisional level pretty significantly because now Division is going to have to do a lot of stuff for the BCTs that they could previously be trusted to handle independently.

Other cuts include reductions within the Security Force Assistance Brigades (with Afghanistan long over, expect these advise and assist units to be put out to pasture in the near future) and a rather surprising and long-overdue slash of some 3,000 positions in SOCOM - an organization that did grow bloated over the War on Terror and its long aftermath.
As a final aside, I'm getting rather amused by the Army brass continuing to blame counterinsurgency for the service's woes. The Army was very focused on doing COIN for basically a five-year period from 2007 to 2011. Prior to that the Army despised COIN, to our considerably chagrin in Iraq and Afghanistan. After that time period, the Army - at least ostensibly - was actively moving away from the COIN mission and back into "big war."

Bluntly, the US Army has been explicitly out of the COIN business for a decade now and the service's leaders need to find a new whipping boy to blame their woes on.Image
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The white paper itself: api.army.mil/e2/c/downloads…

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More from @ArmchairW

Jun 30
Putin HATES THEM!

Or does he?

Top 10 Failed Wonderweapons of the Ukrainian War⬇️ Image
My criteria are simple - these are weapons (defined loosely) that were heavily hyped by Western pundits that actually failed in service.

So, for example, the Leopard 2 isn't on here because it's actually a perfectly functional tank that has performed in line with other tanks.Image
10. The Ukrainian Foreign Legion

After the war kicked off, Western outlets began encouraging adventurous foreigners to travel to Ukraine to fight. These new recruits were housed in barracks at the Yavorov Training Ground.

One Russian missile strike largely ended the project. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jun 23
Apparently four missiles were shot down at sea, with one hit far enough into its final dive that falling submunitions still killed several civilians.

As this occurred on a Sunday afternoon and the nearest military target is three miles away, this was likely a terror attack.⬇️

First of all, I'd like to note the speed with which Ukrainian propagandists, while still celebrating the deaths of Russian vacationers, have come around to a remarkably pro-Russian position while commenting on this event: (1) that Russian air defenses shoot down pretty much everything fired at Crimea; (2) that the Russian Ministry of Defense generally puts out accurate information to the public; and (3) that civilian casualties from downed enemy missiles and malfunctioning interceptors are the responsibility of the defender rather than the attacker. I'm sure they won't immediately do another 180-degree turn as soon as they are presented with a less convenient fact pattern.

Secondly, the range at which this attack was delivered (>160km from any point of UKR-held territory) indicates that the Ukrainians have received a number of M39A1 extended-range ATACMS missiles with cluster warheads. There were only a small number of these manufactured around the turn of the century and apparently most were subsequently converted to unitary models, suggesting that the US is already scraping the munitions barrel to keep Ukraine supplied with missiles (and explaining our reluctance to hand any over previously). ATACMS activity has certainly fallen off dramatically in the last two weeks.

Thirdly, as I pointed out upthread, the nearest obvious military target is an airfield located three miles north of this particular beach. There's also an area of farmland about a mile and a half to the east that may serve as a SAM positioning area. Ballistic missiles that get clipped late in their flight don't fall three miles away from their intended targets, and if the Ukrainians had been interested in a military target they would have done what they always do and attacked in the middle of the night. They struck instead on the afternoon of Orthodox Pentecost Sunday, when the streets and beaches would be crowded with civilians. As such - and in light of a pattern of Ukrainian attacks targeting civilians in Russia gathered for holidays - it is likely this attack was intended to terrorize civilian residents and vacationers in a wealthy Sevasopol suburb and the work of Russian air defenses prevented an enormous number of deaths and injuries.
Addendum: Just to provide some visual context on exactly how far this beach is from the airfield in question - it's farther from it than from the harbor! Image
Addendum 2: It's not clear from the way I wrote it, but there were five missiles in total - four shot down at sea plus one over the beach in question.

I apologize, should have been clearer.
Read 5 tweets
May 20
D+10 update for the Russian Spring 2024 offensive. I mentioned last time (D+8) they'd begun to turn the pressure back on in the Donbass after easing off to let the Ukrainians pull troops to Kharkov.

They've marked up gains in 14 locations across the front in the last 48 hours⬇️ Image
1 / Starting from the north, Volchansk, Russian troops have secured the north of town and pushed troops across the Volcha River to begin evicting the AFU from the south side. Image
2 / No map for Liptsi because the location of the contact line in the area is astonishingly murky for this fishbowl of a war, but the fighting is visible from Kharkov.
Read 17 tweets
May 2
By popular demand, I'm writing a listicle - my top ten US military acquisition disasters of the 21st century.

It's a little distressing that I have so much material to work with.⬇️ Image
This list is largely informed by two factors - taxpayer money wasted and capabilities not delivered. So despite my catchy F-32 frontispiece above, the F-35 didn't actually make the list because despite being very expensive the program delivered working hardware.
Number 10: the VH-71 Kestrel

You think it'd be easy to design a VIP version of an AW101, but the DoD managed to make an off the shelf design cost $400M each.

Cancelled in 2009 after sinking $4.4B; sane program management got the replacement VH-92 in at a third of the unit cost.
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Read 13 tweets
Nov 5, 2023
The Russians have lost around a thousand tanks in Ukraine during the war thus far.

Oh, you want an explanation? Okay. Thread. ⬇️ Image
There has been a problem in estimating Russian vehicle losses since the first hours of the war - Ukrainian propagandists have flooded the internet with dodgy pictures of destroyed Soviet-era vehicles, claimed as Russian. I got started debunking them.

See:
It occurred to me recently, though, that there's a way to "back out" Russian vehicle losses from far better-confirmed data for Russian personnel losses. According to Mediazona's ongoing count there have been 724 Russian tankers killed in the war to date. Image
Read 9 tweets
Oct 9, 2023
D+2 update thread on the 2023 Israeli Crisis.

Palestinian forces - belonging to Hamas and other armed groups in the Gaza enclave - stormed the perimeter defenses yesterday morning local time, catching the IDF entirely off-guard. The front line has yet to stabilize. Image
Israeli troops have begun to converge on the area and counterattack, so I do not expect the zone of Palestinian control to expand significantly, and absent external intervention they will likely be driven back into Gaza proper soon. However, that isn't the whole story.
The Palestinians took advantage of their initial breakthrough to flush commandos deep into the Israeli interior, where they have been wreaking havoc for the past two days.

Video of a "road of death" in southern Israel, my understanding is the aftermath of a Gazan attack.
Read 13 tweets

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