Alex Monahan Profile picture
Jul 4 • 4 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
🚨 Betting Strategy

Got a lot of DMs asking "how" I knew these picks were good. No, I didn't just pick 2 random dudes to go yard...

It was all MATH. That's the only way you win long-term... There's no "luck"

Quick thread showing WHY it was so profitable (e.g. Positive EV) 🧵Image
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Here's a YouTube tutorial/strategy video I made on this book (Betr): . DM me questions anytime. Want you to crush them 💪

Anyways, on Betr, any 2 "boosted" picks pays out 10x ($100 to win $1,000). That's just how their website works. Doesn't matter what 2 boosted picks you select. That means each individual leg is about +215 odds. Create any 2 pick parlay on a sportsbook where both picks are +215 odds. That parlay comes out to a 10x payout (+900 odds).

So you should think about it as - every individual boosted pick (e.g. Ohtani Home Run) is +215 odds.Image
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So this would be a HORRIBLE play... $100 pays out $1,000 on Betr (10x).
1) Nimmo Home Run
2) Ozuna Home Run

FanDuel is ~3x higher than Betr... $100 to win $2,860 (+2760 odds, 28.6x payout). Why on earth would you play Nimmo +215 on Betr when you can get +450 on FanDuel... It would be idiotic.

We'd get fucked long-term & lose a ton of money...

Odds are via the @OddsJam Odds Screen here: oddsjam.com/mlb/screen/pla…Image
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On the other hand.... I would fucking SLAM Judge Home Run in a Betr 10x if they add the line 😂

We're getting +215 on Betr. Look @ every other book:
1) ESPN: +125 (remove the vig or spread & that means +143 "fair" or "true" odds using a fair odds calculator: )
2) Bet365: +135
3) FanDuel+ 160

Getting +215 would be a SLAM... Just common sense. Every other book has this like +140ish.

Obviously, basically NOBODY in the MLB is going to be a "good bet" @ +215 to hit a home run except:
1) Ohtani
2) Judge

SO... You really need both playing on the SAME day in favorable matchups/ballparks for the Betr 10x on 2 pick boosted entries to be profitable (e.g. Positive EV)oddsjam.com/betting-calcul…Image
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More from @AlexMonahan100

May 10
if you're only using one sportsbook, you should QUIT gambling

You (no offense) have 0 clue what you're doing...

I use over 50 sportsbooks. Gambling apps are my entire iPhone...

Here's 5 reasons why you HAVE to be using multiple books if you want to *make money* sports betting 👇Image
1) All books have different 'prices' (e.g. odds). The betting market is very inefficient.

Simple example - let's say you want to bet Lehkonen to Score a Point. The exact same bet has a VASTLY different price (e.g. odds) on various books:
1) FanDuel: -122 odds (bet $122 to win $100)
2) BetMGM: -145 odds (bet $145 to win $100)
3) Fliff: -160 odds (bet $160 to win $100)
etc.

Of course, you'd want to bet this on FanDuel since they have the best price. If you could buy a stock @ $122 or $160, you'd buy it on the platform offering you $122. The price is WAY different (26%). You'd be insane & get crushed day trading buying a stock at a 26% worse price relative to the market.

I had roughly a 10% ROI in 2023, making over $170,000 profit. If I was getting shitty odds that were 26% worse, I would've lost 16% (roughly $250,000). Nobody wins every bet. This makes a HUGE difference long-term...

You need to be getting the best possible price on all of your wagers. It quite literally can turn you from being an unprofitable bettor losing tens of thousands of dollars to being a profitable, sharp bettor making tens of thousands of dollars.

Why does this happen in sports betting? All sportsbooks want to be unique, so they all set their own prices. If every book had the same odds, we wouldn't need hundreds... FanDuel does NOT want to have the same odds as DraftKings

Even both are "markets," the sports betting market is very different from, say, the stock market, which is an efficient market (e.g. the price you see for a stock on Robinhood is the same as the price you'll see on Fidelity).Image
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2) Books run different promos. Some are EXTREMELY lucrative...

Sportsbooks are "competing" for users, so they all run promotions & bonuses. It's a marketing cost for them. Some of these promos are extremely lucrative...

Caesars used to have a $3,000 deposit match for new users. Sign up, deposit $3000, get $3000 for FREE in site credits ($6,000 total in your account). This is basically a FREE $3,000 for 5 minutes of work...

Even if you don't like gambling, you could have "hedged" the $3,000 of site credit to guarantee at least $2,900 profit & then withdrawn all your money ($5,900). My family & friends, in general, hate gambling. I helped ALL of them make a free $2,900 on Caesars in 15 minutes... That's a lot of fucking money.

Here you can see ALL of the sportsbook sign-up bonuses that are available in your location:  - there's almost certainly $1,000+ that you can make in a few days just taking advantage of sportsbook sign-up offers

I made this YouTube video a while ago breaking down how there's over $18,000 in FREE sign-up bonus money across the United States: . I used to travel to different states JUST to take advantage of the sportsbook offersoddsjam.com/promo-finder
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Read 6 tweets
Apr 14
Everything you need to know to make money sports betting

A thread 🧵
1) You want to use as many sportsbooks as possible
Every sportsbook wants to be unique, so they all set their own odds. If DraftKings/FanDuel had the exact same odds, we wouldn't need both books to exist... That means the betting market is extremely fragmented/inefficient, which is why there's a lot of opportunity.

These are (I guess) technically the same bet - both will "win" if Stone has 6 or more strikeouts - but the price is completely different. It's like buying a stock @ $105 vs $154.
1) Stone 6+ Strikeouts: +105 on Fliff (betting $100 to profit $105)
2) Stone 6+ Strikeouts: +154 on FanDuel (betting $100 to profit $154)

Whenever I place a bet, I always make sure to get the best possible price. If you're hitting bets @ +105 odds when other books are offering +154, then you know you're getting ripped off.Image
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As a comparison, the stock market is extremely efficient. There's basically no market discrepancies for retail traders to capitalize on, which is why it's basically impossible to make money day trading. The price of Apple on eTrade is the same as the price of Apple stock on Fidelity, Charles Schwab, etc.

That's why sports betting is so amazing.

This video is a solid comparison of sports betting markets vs. the stock market:
Read 9 tweets
Jan 16, 2023
Prizepicks, Underdog ...

Parlay only sportsbooks. Heroin ...

On PrizePicks, you should (almost) *exclusively* go with 5 pick flex plays.

On Underdog, you should go with 3 leg parlays.

Here's why...

(continue)

will take me a bit of time to write this one
PrizePicks & Underdog both offer 3x payouts on 2 pick entries.

You're betting $10 for a $30 payout, $20 for a $60 payout.

That is NOT +300 odds ... That's +200 odds.

You're wagering $10 to win $20 in profit (plus your $10 stake back, so the total payout is $30).

(continue)
Books showing payout (& profit) is sketchy IMO

PrizePicks/Underdog do this to confuse bettors & make you feel like you're winning more than you actually are.

"You just won $30!"

No... You won $20...

But that's besides the point

(continue)
Read 23 tweets
Jan 16, 2023
Parlays ... 🎯

Lots of people say that parlays can't be profitable long-term.

That's just false ...

Parlays *can* be profitable. In fact, for sharps, parlays are *more* profitable than straight bets in terms of ROI...

Let's go through the logic, math, strategy...

(continue)
Let's start with an example.

Any parlay where both legs are -110 will be +264

Books don't "invent" ways to calculate parlay odds. It's always the same way.

Two legs @ -110 = +264 odds.

So.. You are wagering $100 to profit $264, and both bets need to win for the parlay to win
How is +264 calculated, though?

Well... 

First, books convert odds to probabilities.

Every odd is a probability and vice versa. It's like european odds vs. American odds. They look different, but they're the same thing.

-110 = 52.4% odds: oddsjam.com/betting-calcul…

(continue)
Read 20 tweets
Jan 16, 2023
Promos ... easy profits

1) Caesars: 25% Boost for a 4 leg parlay.

I hit this, most picks from the EV Tool: oddsjam.com/betting-tools/…

Books "compete" for attention by giving out promos. Take the money ...

It's like having a bunch of girls giving you flowers. Take the flowers...
DraftKings: Brady 2+ Passing TDs boosted to +100

Really profitable ... every book has this favored.
$10 risk-free bet on DraftKings for Bucs vs. Cowboys

learn about risk-free bets:
Read 4 tweets
Jan 15, 2023
5 pick'er

Play #1: Gordon 1+ 3's from @OddsJam Positive EV

Positive EV is beautiful because:

1) It takes *emotions* out of betting.
2) It's all about real-time "price" data (e.g. odds). Sportsbooks set & manage lines independently. Use them against each other ...

slam it ..🎯
adding this ...
pushin P.... added this
Read 7 tweets

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