Russian 🇷🇺 invasion map 10 march 22, when they controlled the biggest proportion of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (23%)
Unlike some say, their main axis was Kyiv and if they stepped back, it's because they lost at Irpin, Tchernihiv, Nova Busan and Sumy. There was no "diversion".
🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️
When they attacked on february 24th 2022, unlike their "diversion" propaganda, their main force was positionned north of the country.
5th, 35th, 36th, 41st, 6th and 2nd CAA aimed at Kiev + 29th CAA to divert Ukrainian forces near Rivne-Lutsk.
1st GTA army is aimed at Kiev and Poltava but can't take Sumy and Okhtyrka.
6th CAA (other part) is attacking Kharkiv while 20th CAA targets northern Donbass.
Apart from 8th CAA aimed at Marioupol, there are no new Russian units in Donbass.
LPR and DPR army corps won't attack until 150th Motor Rifle Division from 8th CAA break through Popasna in middle april.
Southern Ukraine is attacked mainly with 58th CAA and elements of 49th CAA. Some units of 49th CAA and 22nd AC waited to be landed near Odessa.
This was probaby the plan :
5th, 35th = take Kiev (west + south)
36th, 41st take Tchernihiv + Kiev (east)
2nd = take Sumy -> Kiev
1st = take Poltava -> Dnipro
6th = take Kharkiv -> Dnipro
20th/8th = encircle Donbass
58th = take Marioupol, Zaporijia + Odessa
On the Ukrainian side, the majority of units are in the Donbass on rotation. Some are in Kiev, 1 st TB is encircled between Nizhyn and Tchernihiv.
58th, 93rd and 92nd defend Kharkiv-Sumy axis.
Many units in Odessa/Mukolaiv.
Why did they lost in Kyiv ?
They broke through ukrainian line between Pryluky and Nizhyn. However, they failed to controll both big and small urban areas like Sumy, Konotop, Mena...
They were always attacked on the supply roads (400km).
When they failed to enter Kyiv in Brovary, they tried many times in the countryside. However, at the end of march, 72nd mecanized brigade counterattacked and regained positions including Nova Busan, pushing back Russian army far from Kyiv.
It was the same on the other side of Kyiv, Ukrainian counterattacked near Makariv and Borodianka, pushed back the Russian from Irpine. It was unecessary to continue fighting there.
And finally, 93rd mecanized brigade lifted the siege of Sumy by taking back Trostianets. It was a clear Russian defeat and their supply lines north of Sumy were endengered.
So there were no goodwill gesture or Istanbul aggreement. Then they took Sievierodonetsk and Marioupol, they sustained a blow at Kharkiv and Kherson and began a new Donbass campain, Bakhmout, Avdiivka and now Toretsk and Tchasiv Yar.
C'était le titre d'une conférence à laquelle j'avais assisté en 2022 auprès de la communauté arménienne en France. A l'époque, l'Azerbaïdjan🇦🇿 avait envahit 300km2 d'Arménie.
Pourtant, le contexte a changé et les enjeux aussi
🧵THREAD🧵1/19⬇️
J'ai terminé de cartographier l'ensemble des positions militaires arméniennes et azerbaïdjanaises le long de leur frontière bilatérale.
En tout, ce sont plus de 1 400 positions arméniennes et 1 000 positions azerbaïdjanaises recensées.
Ces positions nous permettent de voir la vulnérabilité arménienne, encerclée de deux côté, notamment au sud, par l'Azerbaïdjan.
On remarque également les quelques 300 km2 de terres arméniennes (frontière de 1991) occupés par l'Azerbaïdjan, ici à Vardenis.
'South Donetsk' the main battle in Ukraine 🇺🇦 for now 2 years
After two months of forced "pause" in Pokrovsk, it seems Russia🇷🇺 is pushing again. At the same time, the push for Pokrovsk'e has not observed any pause.
Let's talk about the main battle in Ukraine
🧵THREAD🧵1/22⬇️
You all know my classification of the ukrainian war into different battle : Kyiv, Kherson I, Kharkiv I, Donbass I, Kharkiv II, Kherson II, Donbass II, Zaporizhia, Kursk and Donbass III ongoing.
This third Donbass battle since 2022 is for Donetsk and now Pokrovsk.
To remember, the first one occured with the first reorganisation of russian forces after their failure to take Kyiv, taking Marioupol and Sievierodonetsk.
They moved then to Kherson and started after the withdrawal the second one for Bakhmut. The third one started in nov. 2023.
A regional war in the horn of Africa between many actors
I talked about Sudan🇸🇩, about Somalia🇸🇴, about Ethiopia 🇪🇹 and about South Sudan 🇸🇸. All these conflicts are in fact a larger regional war between local and foreign powers, we can see this map with Sudan
🧵THREAD🧵1/11 ⬇️
The war in Sudan is opposing the army led by Al Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces led by Hemetti.
However this cannot be only seen as a local civil war. Its implications are wider. Same for the Ethiopian, Somalian and South Sudanese conflicts.
The SAF allies :
-Turkiye 🇹🇷
-Egypt 🇪🇬
-TPLF (Tigray rebel forces in Ethiopia)🇪🇹
-SPLM-N (South Sudan Nuer rebellion of Machar)
-Iran 🇮🇷
-Qatar 🇶🇦
-Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 (traditionnaly, but with more neutral position currently)
En #Ethiopie 🇪🇹, 5 ans de guerre sans couverture médiatique
Oui, la "guerre civile éthiopienne" qui a commencé dans le Tigré en 2020 est toujours en cours, cette fois dans l'Amhara, depuis 2023 entre les rebelles "Fano" et l'armée.
🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️
L'arrivée au pouvoir d'Abyi Ahmed en 2019 coïncide avec la fin de la domination des tigréens, puissant peuple du nord sur les affaires éthiopiennes.
Dès 2020, Addis Abeba lance une opération militaire pour désarmer le TPLF, Front Populaire de Libération du Tigré.
L'Ethiopie, c'est une mosaïque de peuples, dont les deux principaux, Amhariens et Oromiens représentent chacun 1/3 de la population. Les tigréens et les afars suivent avec 4% et 7% de la population, avec ensuite une série de peuples plus petits.
Ce territoire moldave 🇲🇩 séparatiste depuis 1992 abrite environ 6 000 forces d'actives, dont 1 500 soldats russes 🇷🇺. Une épine dans le pied de l'Ukraine.
Enjeux militaires d'un territoire isolé ⬇️
🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️
En 2022, lors de l'invasion russe de l'Ukraine, les 49ème et 58èmes armées avaient pour objectif de prendre Kherson, Mykolaiv puis de se joindre aux forces en Transnitrie pour prendre Odessa.
Fin février 2022, les russes sont défaits devant Mykolaiv et tentent de trouver un pont
Leur expédition les amènent jusqu'à Voznessensk, premier pont bien plus au nord, dynamité au dernier moment par les ukrainiens.
Isolés et défaits, les russes se retirent entre Kherson et Mykolaiv et abandonnent la jonction avec la Transnitrie.
In #Sudan 🇸🇩, the war of the generals turned into a Turkiye 🇹🇷 - United Arab Emirates 🇦🇪 proxy war.
Both sides have been widely active to support the Sudanese Armed Forces (for 🇹🇷) and the Rapid Support Forces (for 🇦🇪).
Analysis of a forgotten conflit :
🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️
After 2.5 years of war that saw the RSF capture Darfur (west), the capital Khartoum, the south of the country (Gezira, Sennar) and the army recapture Khartoum and the South, the frontline now divides the country in a east-west division
The current battle is happening in Kordofan
Apart from this frontline dividing Sudan, we still have 4 encircled army bases in the west, the main one being El Fasher, home to both the 6th army division and the former Darfuri rebels.
Encircled for 2 years, the army garrison faced important defeats lately.