Clément Molin Profile picture
Jul 4, 2024 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Russian 🇷🇺 invasion map 10 march 22, when they controlled the biggest proportion of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (23%)

Unlike some say, their main axis was Kyiv and if they stepped back, it's because they lost at Irpin, Tchernihiv, Nova Busan and Sumy. There was no "diversion".

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When they attacked on february 24th 2022, unlike their "diversion" propaganda, their main force was positionned north of the country.

5th, 35th, 36th, 41st, 6th and 2nd CAA aimed at Kiev + 29th CAA to divert Ukrainian forces near Rivne-Lutsk. Image
1st GTA army is aimed at Kiev and Poltava but can't take Sumy and Okhtyrka.
6th CAA (other part) is attacking Kharkiv while 20th CAA targets northern Donbass. Image
Apart from 8th CAA aimed at Marioupol, there are no new Russian units in Donbass.
LPR and DPR army corps won't attack until 150th Motor Rifle Division from 8th CAA break through Popasna in middle april. Image
Southern Ukraine is attacked mainly with 58th CAA and elements of 49th CAA. Some units of 49th CAA and 22nd AC waited to be landed near Odessa. Image
This was probaby the plan :
5th, 35th = take Kiev (west + south)
36th, 41st take Tchernihiv + Kiev (east)
2nd = take Sumy -> Kiev
1st = take Poltava -> Dnipro
6th = take Kharkiv -> Dnipro
20th/8th = encircle Donbass
58th = take Marioupol, Zaporijia + Odessa Image
On the Ukrainian side, the majority of units are in the Donbass on rotation. Some are in Kiev, 1 st TB is encircled between Nizhyn and Tchernihiv.

58th, 93rd and 92nd defend Kharkiv-Sumy axis.

Many units in Odessa/Mukolaiv.


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Why did they lost in Kyiv ?

They broke through ukrainian line between Pryluky and Nizhyn. However, they failed to controll both big and small urban areas like Sumy, Konotop, Mena...

They were always attacked on the supply roads (400km). Image
When they failed to enter Kyiv in Brovary, they tried many times in the countryside. However, at the end of march, 72nd mecanized brigade counterattacked and regained positions including Nova Busan, pushing back Russian army far from Kyiv. Image
It was the same on the other side of Kyiv, Ukrainian counterattacked near Makariv and Borodianka, pushed back the Russian from Irpine. It was unecessary to continue fighting there. Image
And finally, 93rd mecanized brigade lifted the siege of Sumy by taking back Trostianets. It was a clear Russian defeat and their supply lines north of Sumy were endengered. Image
So there were no goodwill gesture or Istanbul aggreement. Then they took Sievierodonetsk and Marioupol, they sustained a blow at Kharkiv and Kherson and began a new Donbass campain, Bakhmout, Avdiivka and now Toretsk and Tchasiv Yar.

12/12
And yeah, i launched myself in a series of historical threads around this war.

Here are Russian losses from lost warinua if you don't believe me. Image
Tomorrow i'll show you how 1 500 men faced a 25 000 men army in Kherson.

I already made a 3 threads on that topic, despicting events, and now i'll show you the result with maps ! Image

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More from @clement_molin

Oct 26
A El Fasher dans l'ouest du #Soudan 🇸🇩, les FSR s'emparent de la base de la 6ème division, encerclée depuis 2 ans.

Des milliers de civils, principalement des Zaghawas (noirs) réfugiés dans la ville fuient vers le désert, poursuivis par les FSR (arabes).

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️
El Fasher, 4ème (?) plus grande ville du Soudan, capitale de l'ouest du pays était la dernière ville a résister aux forces de soutien rapide, les FSR.

A l'intérieur, en plus des habitants traditionnels, des réfugiés des guerres précédentes, environ 1.5 millions d'habitants.
Les FSR sont une milice arabe du Darfour (l'ouest du Soudan). Ils se battent depuis la fin des années 1990 contre les peuples africains du Darfour, dont les Fur, Zafgawas et Massalit.

Depuis 2023, les FSR tentent de renverser le pouvoir à Khartoum en se battant contre l'armée. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 25
Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers have been sighted in the center of Pokrovsk, a strategic city in the east of Ukraine 🇺🇦

After months of infiltration, russian troops are threatening to capture two of the last 7 big cities of Donbas, while they started entering a 3rd one.

🧵THREAD🧵1/21 ⬇️Image
While ukrainians are cheering for an undeniable victory, the pushed back Dobropilla breakthrough and the liberation of Kucheriv Yar village, stopping months of threat on Kramatorsk, russian infantry was sighted in the city center of Pokrovsk. Image
Pokrovsk is not a random city. It is the western entrance of Donbas (a populated, mining and industrial eastern region of Ukraine).

Once a strategic railway and road hub for ukrainian forces in Donetsk direction it is now since a year the hot spot of the war. Image
Read 21 tweets
Oct 14
For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched tanks and armoured vehicles in Ukraine 🇺🇦

2 years after the large scale Avdiivka offensive, russian forces tried to storm the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka area of the frontline, losing around 30 armoured vehicles.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️Image
The main use of tanks, IFV and AFV was during the Avdiivka-Donestk offensive, mainly between october 2023 and may 2024.

Then, it was slowly abandonned. Since the first months of 2025, the use of armoured vehicles nearly disappeared. Image
Why ?

Because Russia was slowly lacking reserves in armoured vehicles and drone warfare was making their use more and more dangerous.

Most of them have been put away from the front during months and endured some changes. Image
Read 16 tweets
Oct 10
A quoi ressemble la guerre en Ukraine en 2025, avec des photos et des vidéos ?

Sur cette vidéo, 4 drones russes 🇷🇺 frappent en 1 minute un blindé ukrainien 🇺🇦 abandonné, deux n'explosent pas.

🧵THREAD🧵1/23 ⬇️
J'ai compilé pour vous une vingtaine de vidéos et de photos, les moins sales (la plupart sont absolument horrible, avec des soldats qui agonisent) pour montrer une réalité de la guerre qu'on ne montre plus.

Ici, les drones russes qui attendent leur cible sur le côté de la route.
Un combat constant contre les drones kamikazes FPV.

Sur la vidéo, ce soldat ukrainien se bat contre plusieurs drones kamikazes russes, en détruisant plusieurs. La priorité désormais, regarder vers le ciel.
Read 23 tweets
Oct 8
L'Asie Centrale 🇰🇿🇺🇿🇹🇯🇹🇲🇰🇬 s'éloigne de Moscou 🇷🇺

Alors que se tient le 12ème sommet de l'organisation des Etats Turciques 🇹🇷 en Azerbaïdjan, les pays centrasiatiques prouvent une fois de plus leur éloignement avec la Russie.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️ Image
Depuis 2022, l’Asie centrale amorce un tournant géopolitique majeur.

Longtemps dans le giron russe, la région s’émancipe progressivement de Moscou. Cet éloignement n’est ni brutal ni uniforme, mais il est désormais irréversible. Image
La guerre en Ukraine a agi comme un catalyseur.

Pour les dirigeants centrasiatiques de l'ex URSS, la Russie n’est plus un garant de stabilité, mais un facteur d’incertitude.

Dès lors, la priorité devient l’autonomie stratégique et la diversification des partenariats. Image
Read 21 tweets
Oct 6
*123 000 russian 🇷🇺 soldiers got killed in 2025 in Ukraine 🇺🇦, more than the french 🇫🇷 ground forces.

In total, 281 550 russian soldiers were lost in 2025 as per leaked report. It includes 123 000 killed and missing and 158 529 wounded.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
These leaked documents were initially shared by this account @hochuzhit_com which provided these two pictures.

*I don't know about the source which seems controversial but the data seems veracious since it is close to other data collected by Mediazona, the Ukrainian General Staff and independent analysts.

There is high possibility this can be a propaganda operation, but the data can still be used.Image
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The document is giving few interesting insights on the state of russian forces. With 83 000 killed, it's close to the Mediazona count (54 000 in August with verified data).

It is also giving data on particular units and different sectors.
Read 25 tweets

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