Clément Molin Profile picture
Jul 4, 2024 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Russian 🇷🇺 invasion map 10 march 22, when they controlled the biggest proportion of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (23%)

Unlike some say, their main axis was Kyiv and if they stepped back, it's because they lost at Irpin, Tchernihiv, Nova Busan and Sumy. There was no "diversion".

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️ Image
When they attacked on february 24th 2022, unlike their "diversion" propaganda, their main force was positionned north of the country.

5th, 35th, 36th, 41st, 6th and 2nd CAA aimed at Kiev + 29th CAA to divert Ukrainian forces near Rivne-Lutsk. Image
1st GTA army is aimed at Kiev and Poltava but can't take Sumy and Okhtyrka.
6th CAA (other part) is attacking Kharkiv while 20th CAA targets northern Donbass. Image
Apart from 8th CAA aimed at Marioupol, there are no new Russian units in Donbass.
LPR and DPR army corps won't attack until 150th Motor Rifle Division from 8th CAA break through Popasna in middle april. Image
Southern Ukraine is attacked mainly with 58th CAA and elements of 49th CAA. Some units of 49th CAA and 22nd AC waited to be landed near Odessa. Image
This was probaby the plan :
5th, 35th = take Kiev (west + south)
36th, 41st take Tchernihiv + Kiev (east)
2nd = take Sumy -> Kiev
1st = take Poltava -> Dnipro
6th = take Kharkiv -> Dnipro
20th/8th = encircle Donbass
58th = take Marioupol, Zaporijia + Odessa Image
On the Ukrainian side, the majority of units are in the Donbass on rotation. Some are in Kiev, 1 st TB is encircled between Nizhyn and Tchernihiv.

58th, 93rd and 92nd defend Kharkiv-Sumy axis.

Many units in Odessa/Mukolaiv.


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Why did they lost in Kyiv ?

They broke through ukrainian line between Pryluky and Nizhyn. However, they failed to controll both big and small urban areas like Sumy, Konotop, Mena...

They were always attacked on the supply roads (400km). Image
When they failed to enter Kyiv in Brovary, they tried many times in the countryside. However, at the end of march, 72nd mecanized brigade counterattacked and regained positions including Nova Busan, pushing back Russian army far from Kyiv. Image
It was the same on the other side of Kyiv, Ukrainian counterattacked near Makariv and Borodianka, pushed back the Russian from Irpine. It was unecessary to continue fighting there. Image
And finally, 93rd mecanized brigade lifted the siege of Sumy by taking back Trostianets. It was a clear Russian defeat and their supply lines north of Sumy were endengered. Image
So there were no goodwill gesture or Istanbul aggreement. Then they took Sievierodonetsk and Marioupol, they sustained a blow at Kharkiv and Kherson and began a new Donbass campain, Bakhmout, Avdiivka and now Toretsk and Tchasiv Yar.

12/12
And yeah, i launched myself in a series of historical threads around this war.

Here are Russian losses from lost warinua if you don't believe me. Image
Tomorrow i'll show you how 1 500 men faced a 25 000 men army in Kherson.

I already made a 3 threads on that topic, despicting events, and now i'll show you the result with maps ! Image

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More from @clement_molin

Jul 28
In Sumy oblast, russian 🇷🇺 forces suffered their first "setback" in months, after loosing 2 villages despite massive airstrikes.

Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces stopped the offensive and are building new fortifications.

However, this is the lone good news for Ukraine.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
After months of constant progress in the direction of Sumy city, which started after ukrainian defeat and retreat in Kursk, russian forces have now largely been stopped.

The frontline remains static because both sides sent in new reserves. (via @Deepstate_UA) Image
Ukrainian forces liberated two villages, Kindrativka and Andrivka from russian forces. This very small victory can be seen as interesting, because it is the first in month, however, the price for it was very high.

Men died, other were wounded, in senseless counter-attacks.
Read 20 tweets
Jul 24
Géopolitique de l'Afrique de l'est 🇸🇩🇸🇸🇪🇹🇩🇯🇸🇴🇪🇷🇰🇪🇺🇬🇹🇿

De la guerre civile au Soudan au séparatisme Somalilandais en passant par l'Ethiopie et Djibouti, voyage dans un imbroglio géopolitique.

Typologie, situation sécuritaire, alliés internationaux…

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️ Image
Géographiquement, je vais parler de pays qui peuvent être considérés d'afrique de l'est dont certains sont présents dans la corne de l'Afrique.

L'Ouganda et le Soudan du Sud peuvent être considérés d'Afrique Centrale également, mais je vais les garder dans l'analyse. Image
1- Soudan 🇸🇩

Guerre civile en cours entre les FSR (arabes de l'ouest) et la coalition autour de l'armée (arabe du Nil, peuples africains). Le Soudan est en Etat de famine et coupé en deux. Dictature militaire.

Alliés internationaux :

Armée : 🇮🇷🇹🇷🇷🇺🇶🇦🇪🇬🇸🇦
FSR : 🇦🇪🇸🇸🇹🇩🇱🇾🇪🇹🇷🇺🇰🇪🇨🇫 Image
Read 24 tweets
Jul 23
While massive russian 🇷🇺 airstrikes continue north of Pokrovsk (new maps on the thread), russian forces are now threathening both this strategic city and supply roads to Donbass.

This map I made with @Pouletvolant3 is showing the main ukrainian 🇺🇦 supply roads

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️ Image
Just few days ago, I mapped 450 new russian airstrikes in 8 days, north of Pokrovsk.

Image
This thread was widely shared, because It shows some data we forgot to analyse, the massive airstrike campaign by russian airforce.

Here in blue, the 450 airstrikes in 8 days.
Image
Read 13 tweets
Jul 23
Un nouveau rapport du groupe d'expert de l'ONU sur l'est de la RDC 🇨🇩 accablant pour le rôle et la présence militaire rwandaise🇷🇼 et ougandaise 🇺🇬 en RDC

Le Rwanda et l'Ouganda occupent militairement l'est de la RDC de manière directe et « illégale ».

🧵THREAD🧵1/26 ⬇️Image
D'après le dernier rapport du groupe d'expert,

« Les dirigeants militaires et politiques de l’AFC/M23 ont continué à recevoir des instructions et un appui du Gouvernement du Rwanda et de ses services de renseignement ». Image
Corneille Nangaa, chef politique de l'AFC a été mis de côté pour ses ambitions personnelles de prise du pouvoir à Kinshasa, le M23 et le Rwanda refusant de conquérir tout le pays.
Read 26 tweets
Jul 22
Le SAFARI HUMAIN de Kherson en Ukraine 🇺🇦

Depuis la libération de la ville du sud de l'Ukraine en novembre 2022, l'armée russe 🇷🇺 s'adonne à une pratique morbide.

Des drones russes visent les civils, les poursuivant et les tuant, ici, un camion de pompiers…

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️
A partir de 2024, les équipes de dronistes russes ont débuté un ciblage constant des civils ukrainiens dans la ville de Kherson, située sur la ligne de front du Dniepr.

Plusieurs dizaines d'attaques sur les civils sont rapportées presque quotidiennement. Image
Les victimes sont des civils ordinaires : passagers attendant leurs bus ou voyageant dedans, enfants jouant dans les parcs, bébé dans le jardin de la maison familiale, employés de la voirie, cyclistes, personnes âgées faisant leurs courses et piétons... Image
Read 17 tweets
Jul 20
After few hours of work, I geolocated around 450 new russian 🇷🇺 airstrikes since july 11th, north and north-east of Pokrovsk 🇺🇦.

Those new airstrikes (in blue) are showing that russian forces intend a strong push north of Pokrovsk.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
Here is a very small portion of the frontline. We are in Nykanorivka, 6km from the current frontline.

In July 11th, 2 airstrikes impact were visible, now, we can see 18, meaning 16 more in a week for this village !
Closer to the frontline, near Zatyshok, numerous new airstrikes can be seen in a single treeline.

To be more precise, those happenend the last few hours, between july 16th and july 19th !
Read 20 tweets

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