Clément Molin Profile picture
Jul 4, 2024 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Russian 🇷🇺 invasion map 10 march 22, when they controlled the biggest proportion of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (23%)

Unlike some say, their main axis was Kyiv and if they stepped back, it's because they lost at Irpin, Tchernihiv, Nova Busan and Sumy. There was no "diversion".

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When they attacked on february 24th 2022, unlike their "diversion" propaganda, their main force was positionned north of the country.

5th, 35th, 36th, 41st, 6th and 2nd CAA aimed at Kiev + 29th CAA to divert Ukrainian forces near Rivne-Lutsk. Image
1st GTA army is aimed at Kiev and Poltava but can't take Sumy and Okhtyrka.
6th CAA (other part) is attacking Kharkiv while 20th CAA targets northern Donbass. Image
Apart from 8th CAA aimed at Marioupol, there are no new Russian units in Donbass.
LPR and DPR army corps won't attack until 150th Motor Rifle Division from 8th CAA break through Popasna in middle april. Image
Southern Ukraine is attacked mainly with 58th CAA and elements of 49th CAA. Some units of 49th CAA and 22nd AC waited to be landed near Odessa. Image
This was probaby the plan :
5th, 35th = take Kiev (west + south)
36th, 41st take Tchernihiv + Kiev (east)
2nd = take Sumy -> Kiev
1st = take Poltava -> Dnipro
6th = take Kharkiv -> Dnipro
20th/8th = encircle Donbass
58th = take Marioupol, Zaporijia + Odessa Image
On the Ukrainian side, the majority of units are in the Donbass on rotation. Some are in Kiev, 1 st TB is encircled between Nizhyn and Tchernihiv.

58th, 93rd and 92nd defend Kharkiv-Sumy axis.

Many units in Odessa/Mukolaiv.


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Why did they lost in Kyiv ?

They broke through ukrainian line between Pryluky and Nizhyn. However, they failed to controll both big and small urban areas like Sumy, Konotop, Mena...

They were always attacked on the supply roads (400km). Image
When they failed to enter Kyiv in Brovary, they tried many times in the countryside. However, at the end of march, 72nd mecanized brigade counterattacked and regained positions including Nova Busan, pushing back Russian army far from Kyiv. Image
It was the same on the other side of Kyiv, Ukrainian counterattacked near Makariv and Borodianka, pushed back the Russian from Irpine. It was unecessary to continue fighting there. Image
And finally, 93rd mecanized brigade lifted the siege of Sumy by taking back Trostianets. It was a clear Russian defeat and their supply lines north of Sumy were endengered. Image
So there were no goodwill gesture or Istanbul aggreement. Then they took Sievierodonetsk and Marioupol, they sustained a blow at Kharkiv and Kherson and began a new Donbass campain, Bakhmout, Avdiivka and now Toretsk and Tchasiv Yar.

12/12
And yeah, i launched myself in a series of historical threads around this war.

Here are Russian losses from lost warinua if you don't believe me. Image
Tomorrow i'll show you how 1 500 men faced a 25 000 men army in Kherson.

I already made a 3 threads on that topic, despicting events, and now i'll show you the result with maps ! Image

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More from @clement_molin

Jul 6
12 soldats pour 5km, incapable de tenir les rivières et lignes de défense, une défense aérienne à l'agonie, l'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 serait-elle au bord de la rupture ?

Dernièrement, l'armée ukrainienne subit des revers important, sur le front et à l'arrière.

🧵THREAD🧵1/14 ⬇️Image
"Sur un tronçon de plus de 5 km, on compte 10, voire 12 combattants. La défense est assurée par des chauffeurs, des artilleurs et des cuisiniers. Mais eux aussi sont « finis ». 25 % du personnel des bataillons est resté"

La pénurie d'hommes devient problématique pour l'armée ukrainienne.

Sur le papier, de nouveaux corps d'armée ont été créés pour regrouper les unités entre-elles, en théorie, 50 000 hommes. En pratique ? Personne ne sait, peut-être seulement la moitié. Image
Read 14 tweets
Jul 5
En #Somalie 🇸🇴, une guerre civile oubliée continue, entre le groupe terroriste Al Shabab 🏴, l'armée Somalienne et plusieurs régions séparatistes, Somaliland, Puntland et Jubaland.

Plusieurs puissances extérieures sont impliquées dans une guerre sans fin 🇺🇸🇹🇷🇦🇪

🧵THREAD🧵1/16⬇️ Image
En mars 1978, la défaite somalienne lors de la guerre de l'Ogaden contre l'Ethiopie (tentative d'annexer la région ethiopienne de Somali à l'est du pays) fait baisser la popularité du président Barre, un coup d'Etat échoue.

-> Une guerre civile entre rebelles et gouvernement Image
Durant cette violente guerre civile, les rebelles progressèrent vers une unification, jusqu'à contrôler la majorité du pays, alors même que la région du Somaliland déclarait son indépendance après une sanglante guerre civile de 1981 à 1991. Image
Read 16 tweets
Jul 4
Six months in Ukraine 🇺🇦/🇷🇺 in 2025

As we we enter the second part of the 4th year of full scale war in Ukraine, let's analyse what happened for the last 6 months, from the end of Kursk to the progress in Donbass region.

What will happen until 2026 ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
As in 2024, Russian summer offensive is gaining momentum.

1,832 km2 were captured, the majority of which was in the south of Donetsk Oblast.

These figures do not include the more than 400 km2 of Russian territory liberated in Kursk by March 2025. Image
Diplomatic effort :

The arrival of Donald Trump in office in late january did not change anything to the war situation.

Putin is still not willing to negociate a peaceful end of the war and the American and European pressure did not change anything.
Read 25 tweets
Jul 3
L'accord du Zangezur🇦🇲🇦🇿🇹🇷 signé, Moscou🇷🇺 écarté ?

Dans le Caucase du Sud, l'Arménie, l'Azerbaïdjan et la Turquie se seraient mis d'accord sur l'ouverture d'un corridor économique entre Turquie et Asie Centrale.

Moscou 🇷🇺 a été écarté du processus.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️ Image
Un moment historique. A Istanbul, le premier ministre Arménien Nikol Pashinian a rendu visite à Recep Tayyip Erdogan, président Turc pour la première fois de l'histoire il y a deux semaines. Image
Depuis la révolution de velours de 2018, conduisant à l'arrivée au pouvoir de Nikol Pashinian, celui-ci n'a eu de cesse de proposer une nouvelle vision pour l'Arménie, s'éloignant notamment de la Russie. Image
Read 15 tweets
Jun 29
L'échec de la construction des fortifications et tranchées ukrainiennes 🇺🇦

Trop grandes, sans positions de tirs, sans camouflage ni cachette, les tranchées ukrainiennes de 2014-2024 sont toutes obsolètes aujourd'hui.

Une nouvelle ligne de défense les remplace

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
En 2024, l'armée ukrainienne a construit d'immenses fortifications défensives sur toute la ligne de front pour ralentir l'armée russe.

Pourtant, ces défenses présentent des vulnérabilités majeurs et étaient déjà à l'époque obsolètes. Image
Sur mes cartes des fortifications, vous pouvez observer ces immenses réseaux de tranchées au milieu des champs, de parfois 300, 400, voire même plus, jusqu'à 800 mètres de long.

Ces tranchées n'ont eu aucun intérêt défensif. Image
Read 20 tweets
Jun 27
In the Sahara desert in Northern Sudan 🇸🇩, the Rapid Support Forces united with Haftar alignated forces of Libya 🇱🇾 in a joint offensive.

Fightings also continue to rage in the Kordofan region, especially in Babanusa, El Obeid and Dilling.

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️Image
It is a new escalation of the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support forces in Sudan.

One month ago, SAF troops managed to cut the RSF Darfur base from the Libyan border, but all this progress has been overthrown. Image
The RSF is a pro United Arab Emirates militia fighting for the power in Sudan.
The UAE are sending drones, munitions and money to the militiamen through 3 main countries, that are also supporting the RSF, the LNA (eastern and southern Libya), Chad and South Sudan.
Read 13 tweets

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