Clément Molin Profile picture
Jul 4 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Russian 🇷🇺 invasion map 10 march 22, when they controlled the biggest proportion of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (23%)

Unlike some say, their main axis was Kyiv and if they stepped back, it's because they lost at Irpin, Tchernihiv, Nova Busan and Sumy. There was no "diversion".

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When they attacked on february 24th 2022, unlike their "diversion" propaganda, their main force was positionned north of the country.

5th, 35th, 36th, 41st, 6th and 2nd CAA aimed at Kiev + 29th CAA to divert Ukrainian forces near Rivne-Lutsk. Image
1st GTA army is aimed at Kiev and Poltava but can't take Sumy and Okhtyrka.
6th CAA (other part) is attacking Kharkiv while 20th CAA targets northern Donbass. Image
Apart from 8th CAA aimed at Marioupol, there are no new Russian units in Donbass.
LPR and DPR army corps won't attack until 150th Motor Rifle Division from 8th CAA break through Popasna in middle april. Image
Southern Ukraine is attacked mainly with 58th CAA and elements of 49th CAA. Some units of 49th CAA and 22nd AC waited to be landed near Odessa. Image
This was probaby the plan :
5th, 35th = take Kiev (west + south)
36th, 41st take Tchernihiv + Kiev (east)
2nd = take Sumy -> Kiev
1st = take Poltava -> Dnipro
6th = take Kharkiv -> Dnipro
20th/8th = encircle Donbass
58th = take Marioupol, Zaporijia + Odessa Image
On the Ukrainian side, the majority of units are in the Donbass on rotation. Some are in Kiev, 1 st TB is encircled between Nizhyn and Tchernihiv.

58th, 93rd and 92nd defend Kharkiv-Sumy axis.

Many units in Odessa/Mukolaiv.


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Why did they lost in Kyiv ?

They broke through ukrainian line between Pryluky and Nizhyn. However, they failed to controll both big and small urban areas like Sumy, Konotop, Mena...

They were always attacked on the supply roads (400km). Image
When they failed to enter Kyiv in Brovary, they tried many times in the countryside. However, at the end of march, 72nd mecanized brigade counterattacked and regained positions including Nova Busan, pushing back Russian army far from Kyiv. Image
It was the same on the other side of Kyiv, Ukrainian counterattacked near Makariv and Borodianka, pushed back the Russian from Irpine. It was unecessary to continue fighting there. Image
And finally, 93rd mecanized brigade lifted the siege of Sumy by taking back Trostianets. It was a clear Russian defeat and their supply lines north of Sumy were endengered. Image
So there were no goodwill gesture or Istanbul aggreement. Then they took Sievierodonetsk and Marioupol, they sustained a blow at Kharkiv and Kherson and began a new Donbass campain, Bakhmout, Avdiivka and now Toretsk and Tchasiv Yar.

12/12
And yeah, i launched myself in a series of historical threads around this war.

Here are Russian losses from lost warinua if you don't believe me. Image
Tomorrow i'll show you how 1 500 men faced a 25 000 men army in Kherson.

I already made a 3 threads on that topic, despicting events, and now i'll show you the result with maps ! Image

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More from @clement_molin

Jul 5
The fall of Kherson, the first and biggest ukrainian 🇺🇦defeat of the war.

After seeing northern direction yesterday, lets see how 58th 🇷🇺 and 49th 🇷🇺 CAA took Kherson and Melitopol in two days. Here is an understanding of ukrainian crushing defeat in the south.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️ Image
The Russian grouping "Z" in Crimea was composed of around 50 000 men from 2 armies, 49th and 58th CAA, without fortgeting 22nd army corp.

At least they engaged more than 20 Battle Tactical Groups (BTGs), around 20 to 25 000 men. They had also ~12 landing ships. Image
The Ukrainian grouping was composed of only 1 500 men.
175 were part of 137th separate Marine Bataillon from 36th Marine Brigade. They were tasked at 3 points, Chonhar, Chaplinka and Kalanchak border crossing. Image
Read 20 tweets
Jul 3
🎉Vous êtes 20 000 à me suivre !

Alors je vous propose quelques cartes pour détailler ce thread d'hier en vous remerciant pour vos retours !

🧵10 mars 2022, oblasts de Kiev, Soumy et Tchernihiv, nord de l'Ukraine 🇺🇦 1/9⬇️
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Carte générale du front nord le 10 mars 2022. L'armée Russe contrôle les routes principales, évite les villes sous contrôle sois de l'armée ukrainienne, soit des civils de la défense territoriale + forces locales (police).
2/9 Image
Au nord est, peu ou pas de résistance Ukrainienne. Konotop, Mena et Hloukhiv sont sous le contrôle des civils qui refusent l'entrée de l'armée Russe qui prend soin de contourner ces villes.

Incertitude pour Chotska et Krolovets.
3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
Jul 2
🧵THREAD🧵

La guérilla de la route de Kiev 🇺🇦

De février à début avril 2022, l’armée Ukrainienne a mené une guérilla défensive sur un front de 400km pour protéger Kiev.

Cartes, vidéos et analyse de cette guérilla cruciale⬇️ Image
Dispositif Russe pour attaquer Kiev :
- 35ème armée (Nord et Ouest)
- 36ème armée Tchernihiv (Nord-Est) (E95-P13)
- 41ème armée Nord-Est) (P12)
- 6ème/2èmearmée (Est) (M02)
- 1ère armée de chars de la garde (Sud-Est) (P61-H07) Image
Dispositif défensif Ukrainien :
- 1ère brigade de chars (Tchernihiv-Nyzhin-Brovary)
- 72ème mécanisée (Brovary)
- 58ème Motorisée (Pryluky-Romny)
- 93ème Mécanisée (Othyrka-Hadiatch)
- Civils-défense territoriale (Soumy, Tchernihiv, Hlukhiv, Konotop…) Image
Read 25 tweets
Jun 19
La grande offensive de l'Oskil, un mirage lointain et répétitif 🇷🇺/🇺🇦

C'est une nécessité stratégique et politique, pour concrétiser le projet de Novorossia, il faudra avancer sur les rivières Oskil puis Siverski Donets.

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Juillet 2023, la propagande s'active. "Une grande offensive Russe a traversé la rivière Zherebets et avance vers Cherneshchyna, point haut stratégique avant l'Oskil".

Un grand danger menace la présence Ukrainienne à l'est de la rivière. Image
Il s'avèrera que cette offensive aura été largement exagérée comme je l'avais décelé à l'époque.

Cette ligne jaune, c'est la rivière Zherebets le front précédent, remarquez comment cette avancée est minimale, seulement 3km au maximum. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 17
Dans la direction de Pokrovsk, après 2 mois de grignotage, l'armée Russe 🇷🇺 se rapproche enfin de la première ligne de défense de la ville Ukrainienne 🇺🇦.

L'armée Ukrainienne recule progressivement sur ses positions préparées.

🧵THREAD🧵1/7 ⬇️ Image
Cette ligne en question peut même être qualifiée de 2ème ligne après Avdiivka, mais la première n'était pas vraiment appuyée sur une défense naturelle.

La seconde ligne est incomplète mais s'appuie sur une rivière et plusieurs étangs. Image
En noir les lignes les plus solides, en bleu celles moins solides mais qui s'appuient souvent sur un cours d'eau et en jaune les lignes de 2022/2023 qui sont moins importantes. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 11
What's happening in #France 🇫🇷 ?

At the latest European elections, the far right "Rassemblement National" won 31% of votes while Renaissance (center) made only 14.6%.

President #Macron dissolved the assembly and called on snap legislative elections.

🧵THREAD🧵1/21 ⬇️ Image
What are the results ?

RN (far right) 31%
RE (center 14.6%
PS (left) 13.8%
LFI (far left) 9.8%
LR (right) 7.2%
EELV (ecologists/left) 5.5%
R ! (far right) 5.4%

The participation was 53%, the highest number for european election since 1994. Image
This was a large defeat for president Macron and Renaissance, but not the first one.
He was already governing with relative majority, not enough MP's (député) to vote its laws, like pensions last year or immigration at the end of 2023.

He also lost in 2019 European elections. Image
Read 22 tweets

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