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Henry Olsen Profile picture
@henryolsenEPPC
Jul 4 • 10 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Happy UK Election Day! Here's the primer on what to look for today.

Britain elects its 650 members of the House of Commons by first-past-the-post in single-member districts just like the U.S. House. That fact will help Labour tonight a lot.

1/x
Polls show Labour will win between 400 and 475 seats as the Tories collapse to between 20 and 25%. The Tories won 43% in 2019, meaning they'll only hold about half of their voters.

Many have switched to Labour, but more have switched to Nigel Farage's Reform Party.

2/x
Reform is polling around 15-18%, and may be a bit higher tonight as disaffected Tories decide whether to really go down with the ship. They won't win many seats with that because their support is diffused around the country, though.

3/x
Reform should win 3 seats - Clacton, Ashfield, and Boston & Skegness - if they are on the low end of that range. Closer to 18% brings in 5-10 more, places like Great Yarmouth, Folkestone & Hythe, and others. Hit 20% and they could get as many as 20 seats.

4/x
The Liberal Democrats will win many more seats with many fewer votes because their support is concentrated. Polls say they will win between 50 and 75 seats on 10-14% of the vote. SW England and the outer suburbs of London will turn LibDem yellow.

5/x
Wales will be largely Labour red. The Tories are projected to win none of Wales' 32 seats. The Welsh Nationalists, Plaid Cymru, might win 4 and LibDems might win 1.

Scotland will also go red as Labour takes back Glasgow from the SNP. Tories might get nothing there too.

6/x
You can get the lowdown on why the Tories collapsed and where they and Reform go from here on my podcast!



7/xricochet.com/podcast/beyond…
The polls close at 10pm local time, which is 5pm ET. The definitive exit poll will be released at precisely 10/5. I will be back to report that in a separate thread.

I'll them go off-line for a couple of hours because Britain only reports completed constituencies.

8/x
The first ones to report are always in the Labour heartlands of Newcastle and Sunderland. They come in within 90 minutes of polls closing. The bulk of returns will start to arrive maybe an hour later, and the torrent picks up about four hours after poll closure.

9/x
My thread will pick back up at 5pm ET, and I will then stay online until the bulk of seats are declared.

Enjoy and come back here for the fun!!

10/10

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More from @henryolsenEPPC

Henry Olsen Profile picture
Jul 4
British election thread! Polls have closed and the BBC exit poll says Labour will win 410 seats, Tories 131, Lib Dems 61. Reform get 13, SNP 10, PC 4, and Greens 2.

1/x
Reminder - Britain does not report precincts results. We only get the complete results when a constituency is fully counted. The fastest seats will report within an hour, but most seats won't start reporting until around 7:30-9 pm ET.

2/x
Exit poll shows the Labour vote only up very sightly outside of Scotland. It's up there by 18%, but up by 2-4% in the North and the Midlands and down a couple in London and the South of England. So why are they romping home?

3/x
Read 73 tweets
Henry Olsen Profile picture
Jun 26
THEY'RE OV-AH! I'm late to the primary party tonight but it looks like I haven't missed too much. The AP has correctly called SC-3 GOP for Sheri Biggs, NY-16 Dem for George Latimer, and CO-4 GOP for Lauren Boebert. Jeff Hurd will win CO-3 R and Jeff Crank will CO-5 R.

1/x
AP has also called NY-1 D for John Avlon and CO-8 R for Gabe Evans. State Sen. John Mannion will win NY-22 D as well. Rep. Claudia Tenney will almost certainly win NY-24 R.

That leaves the races in UT, where the polls close in 1 minute!!

2/x
Three races in UT to watch, as the points @SilverBulletLLC made on my most recent podcast episode. UT-Sen, UT-2, and UT-3. UT-3 is the most uncertain of the three.

UT is a big mail ballot state, so we should have a good sense of the night pretty early.

3/x
Read 5 tweets
Henry Olsen Profile picture
May 30
Thursday South African election thread -

Good morning! Results are now slowly arriving. About 21% of precincts, but between 10 and 15% of expected voters, have reported. Here's what we know so far:

1/x
* The ANC should lose its overall majority in parliament for the first time since the establishment of full democracy in 1994;
* The MK Party, led by former SA president and ANC leader Jacob Zuma, should be the largest party in KwaZuluNatal, the second largest province.

2/x
* The DA will keep control of the Western Cape, but may not have an absolute majority;
* The Patriotic Alliance, an historically unimportant party claiming to represent coloured (mixed-race) citizens will enter parliament;
* The EFF will not gain substantially over 2019.

3/x
Read 15 tweets
Henry Olsen Profile picture
May 14
This is tonight's primary analysis thread!

Polls close in WV at 7:30pm ET. The GOP Senate race between Gov. Jim Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney should be a Justice wipeout - expect a quick call.

Races for the GOP Gov. nomination and WV 2 to succeed Mooney are also up.

1/x
WV is a very rural state and no county cast more than 10% of the total vote in the 2020 GOP primary. Only 4 counties cast even 10,000 votes out of the 210,556 total cast. Kanawha (Charleston) is the big dog with 18,500, followed by Berkeley (Panhandle) with 12,000.

2/x
For the WV 2 race, look at Berkeley and a group of four counties in north central WV just below the PA border - Preston, Monongalia, Marion, and Harrison. Together they cast over 26,000 votes and with Berkeley cast nearly 40% of the CD total.

3/x
Read 13 tweets
Henry Olsen Profile picture
Apr 10
It's Election Day in South Korea! South Koreans are already voting (it's thirteen hours ahead of ET there) for their national legislature. A short thread re: what's at stake.

1/x
South Korea has a 300-member unicameral parliament. 46 seats are elected by nationwide PR with a 5% floor to get any seats. 254 are selected in single-member districts, first past the post as in the U.S.

SK has a multi-party system, but with two dominant parties.

2/x
The Democratic Party is the main center-left party. It won a big victory in the last legislative race, but narrowly lost the presidential contest in 2022 to their center-right rivals.

Polls show them in front for the district seats, but trailing for the PR seats.

3/x
Read 13 tweets
Henry Olsen Profile picture
Mar 19
It's Election Day in OH and IL! Both states hold presidential and Senate/House primaries today.

The big focus is on the OH GOP race, which is effectively one between Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno and establishment conservative Sen. Matt Dolan.

1/x
Polls show the race between them too close to call, with some showing Dolan up slightly and others showing Moreno ahead. Here are some things to watch out for tonight.

1) Early Vote - MAGA warriors are likelier to vote on election day, so the EV will be Dolan's mark.

2/x
If he's not ahead after the EV is reported, he's lost.

We don't have a final estimate of the total EV cast, but as of last week 155,000 GOP ballots were in. Another 40,000 GOP mail ballots had not yet been returned.

I suspect the final EV will be between 250 and 300k.

3/x
Read 51 tweets

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