Thread by @henryolsenEPPC

British election thread! Polls have closed and the BBC exit poll says Labour will win 410 seats, Tories 131, Lib Dems 61. Reform get 13, SNP 10, PC 4, and Greens 2.

1/x

Reminder - Britain does not report precincts results. We only get the complete results when a constituency is fully counted. The fastest seats will report within an hour, but most seats won't start reporting until around 7:30-9 pm ET.

2/x

Exit poll shows the Labour vote only up very sightly outside of Scotland. It's up there by 18%, but up by 2-4% in the North and the Midlands and down a couple in London and the South of England. So why are they romping home?

3/x

The Tory vote is projected to drop by 24% in the North, 29% in the Midlands, and 23% in the South. Down 18% in Wales and 16% in London. Only 10 down in Scotland, but that's about half of their vote there in 2019.

More a Tory rejection than endorsement of Labour.

4/x

My best very rough guess at vote share based on what the BBC has said:

Labour 36, Conservative 20. Then maybe Reform 18, Lib Dem 13. Greens 6, Nationalists and Northern Ireland 5. Reserve right to revise as more data is announced.

5/x

Sir John Curtice: "Much of the damage being done to the Tories is being done by Reform, not Labour."

6/x

Virtually no change in overall Lib Dem vote share per exit poll.

7/x

Sir John Curtice just said the word "psephological" on the BBC - and everyone knew what he meant!

8/x

If the Lib Dems basically got what they did last time, that was 11.6%. So revise my estimate to Labour 36, Conservative 22, Reform 18, Lib Dem 12. Green 5, Nats and NI 5.

The BBC has their estimates of which seats have flipped, but they have not posted it online. So nothing to examine until results start to come in.

10/x

BBC says Tories dropped 28% on vote share in seats they won in 2019. Labour up only 5%, Greens up 4%, Lib Dems up 1%. Reform up 18% in those seats, most of which had no Brexit Party candidate then. That means Reform is on 19-20% in 2019 Tory seats.

11/x

Labour dropped 1% in their 2019 seats, but Tories dropped 17%. +10 for Reform over the 2019 Brexit Party results. Brexit Party did have candidates in most of these seats, so that puts them closer to 14-16% in 2019 Labour seats. Greens +7 in these seats.

12/x

First seat declared is Houghton and Sunderland South. Labour wins, as always, but Reform got nearly 30% to finish second. Tories got 5,514 to Reform's 11,668. Working class revolt again.

13/x

We'll be waiting for another hour until some substantial returns start to arrive. BBC is interesting banter but nothing new.

14/x

Reform on 27% in another northern working class seat, Blyth. Turnout down in the two seats reporting so far.

15/x

More data from BBC exit poll. Tory vote down 28% in Leave seats, Reform +18 and Labour +4. Tory vote down 15% in Remain seats, Reform +9 and Labour +4.

That translates into only 36% for Labour. 410 seats on 36%.

16/x

BBC reporting a 91% of Reform winning Hartlepool, Lord Mandelson's old seat in the working class north. We shall see.

Sunderland Central - Reform second with 27%. No vote share gain for Labour. Huge drop for Conservatives.

17/x

Swindon South is the first Labour gain (of very very many to come) of the night. Huge swing from Conservative to Labour. Conservatives finish second in this 51.5% Leave seat, Reform on 14%.

18/x

Washington and Gateshead South - another northern, working class Leave-voting seat - holds for Labour. Reform second again.

19/x

Newcastle Center - another Reform second place finish with 19%. Labour vote down 14% from 2019, but that went to Greens (+5) and two independents (+9).

20/x

I see Count Binface is present in Rishi Sunak's seat, where he is standing to oppose the sitting PM. The video of he, Lord Buckethead, and Elmo standing o the stage at declaration time in Boris Johnson's seat in 2019 is hilarious to watch!

21/x

Howling Laud Hope of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party is also in Sunak's seat. The things we look for as results remain scarce!

22/x

Labour hold Gateshead Central with a lower vote share. Reform in second on 21.4%. Conservatives in 4th on 11.5%, down over 21% from 2019.

23/x

Cramlington, another northeast working class seat, goes Labour (hold) on an increase of 5%. Reform finished second again, Conservatives down 21% on vote share.

24/x

South Shields (northern, working class) stays Labour but on a -3% drop in vote share. Reform second on 23%, Conservatives on 11% - -15% - and in fourth. Greens third, +12%. Ahmed Khan, independent, gets 6%.

25/x

Harrogate and Knaresborough is the Lib Dem's first gain from the Tories. Cons get 30%, -22 from 2019. Lib Dems +10, Reform third at 11% (+11).

26/x

Tories hold Rayleigh and Wickford, but Reform is second with 25%. Another stronger than expected showing for Farage's party.

Labour flip Stroud. Tories down big, 2d with 26%. Reform 3d with 12%.

27/x

Jarrow and Gateshead goes Labour, Reform 2d with 27. Tories only get 9%.

28/x

Labour flip Darlington narrowly from Tories. Reform third on 13, Tories -16, Labour no significant gain.

29/x

Nuneaton flips to Labour, Reform third with 22%. Cons down 32% (!!), Labour up 5%.

Basildon and Billericay in recount, said to be only a 20 vote margin. Should be a safe Tory seat, but not tonight.

30/x

The Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, easily wins Leeds West. Tories only 300 votes ahead of Reform.

Labour hold Barnsley North. Reform gets 10,800 votes, more than triple that of the Tories. Barnsley N is working class northern.

30/x

Reform still ahead of the Tories on popular vote by about 2%. That should shift as more affluent seats report, but it's clear that the Red Wall 2019 Tories are flocking to Reform.

31/x

Labour have flipped two more Tory seats, Bridgend in Wales and Telford in England. The rout is on.

33/x

Labour gained 10% in Telford, and Reform finished second on 25%. Conservatives drop 38% (!!!).

Labour only gain 1% in Bridgend. Reform 2d with 19%, Tories drop 28% of their vote share.

Labour flip Swindon North, too.

34/x

Lib Dems flip Eastleigh. No vote share gain, but Tories down 21%. Reform fourth on 13%.

35/x

Reform lost two seats which they could have won, Barnsley N & S, but with 29 and 33%. Extremely strong showing in both Red Wall seats.

36/x

Results coming in very quickly now, will try to give you key seats and the overview rather than every seat.

Labour gains 9 seats so far, Lib Dems +2, Cons -11. Tories on 20.4% and Reform on 20.0%. Labour only up 2% so far on 2019.

37/x

Lee Anderson easily holds Ashfield, he's the first Reform win on the night.

38/x

Labour now +12, Tories -15, in seats.

39/x

Tories drop 40% (!!!) from Cannock Chase. Reform in close 3d on 27%, Labour win.

Cannock Chase flip to Conservatives in 2010 was the key sign that the working class was on the move rightward.

40/x

Tories now down 21 seats, winning only 2 so far. Barely ahead of Reform in votes. Labour + 19 but vote share only up 1.8%. They'll win a huge majority with very little increase in vote share if this keeps up.

41/x

Tories down 25 seats so far. Labour up 24, including 2 they have taken from the SNP. Lib Dems +2, Reform +1.

The flips from Con to Labour now dropping fast and furious.

42/x

Tories now -28, still having won only 3 seats. Reform only a little behind in vote share.

43/x

Keir's seat ready to declare - Elmo is standing!

44/x

Starmer wins but a candidate standing criticizing him for not be pro-Gaza enough got 7,300 votes, almost 19%.

Elmo got 19 votes. Nick the Flying Brick, the Official Raving Monster Loony Party candidate, got 162.

45/x

Tories now -33 seats. Labour up 29 but with vote share up by less than 1%. Tory vote share only 20%, down 19% from 2019. Reform has only 1 seat but 17% of the vote.

46/x

Folkestone and Hythe is a great example of what's going on. Labour win with 35%, +8%. Conservatives lose 30%, finish second with 26%. Reform third with 25%. There will be loads of seats where Con +Reform will significantly outpoll Labour.

47/x

Defense Secretary Grant Shapps loses, becomes the sixth Cabinet member to lose his or her seat.

Labour loses Chingford because it split the vote between the Gaza activist they dropped (who ran as an independent) and their official candidate.

48/x

Tories gain Leicester East because pro-Gaza independents cannibalize Labour vote. Second seat Labour fail to win because of pro-Gaza (Hamas) candidates.

49/x

Tories now down 46 seats, Labour +40, Lib Dems +9.

Tories now have a 5% lead over Reform in vote share 21-16. Their best seats have yet to report, too.

50/x

Jeremy Corbyn easily wins as an independent in Islington North. Another left-wing win in a Labour seat.

51/x

Farage easily wins Clacton and finally makes into the Commons. Second Reform win.

52/x

Tories down 56 seats, Labour +49. SNP -8 seats, Lib Dems +11. Labour vote share only up 1%. Tory collapse the big story.

Tories lead Reform 20-16 so far.

53/x

Kemi Badenoch holds Saffron Walden, keeping her hat in the post-Rishi leadership battle.

54/x

BBC projections updated. Labour down to 405, Tories up to 154. Reform down to 4, LD on 56.

Labour loses Leicester South to another independent making Gaza a priority.

55/x

Reform get their third seat in Great Yarmouth.

56/x

Tories now -71, Labour +60, Lib Dems +14. Tories lead Reform 21-16 in vote share, Labour vote share only up 1%.

57/x

BBC says Labour vote share down 19% in seats with a 20% or more Muslim population. Independents +19. This has cost them the two Leicester seats so far - watch Birmingham.

58/x

Suella Braverman holds her seat. Another Tory leader wannabe stays in the hunt.

59/x

Tories now down 96 seats, Labour + 82. Lib Dems +20.

Greens take Bristol Central from Labour, Richard Tice (Reform) takes Boston & Skegness from the Tories.

Reform now on 4 seats.

60/x

Penny Mordaunt, another potential Tory leadership candidate, loses her seat to Labour. She's now OUT of the race since one must be an MP to stand.

Reform got 8,501 votes there - she lost by 780.

61/x

Labour now +99, Tories - 110. Lib Dems +22, SNP -19.

Labour on 38%, +1.5%. Tories on 22%, down 20%. Reform on 15.5%.

62/x

Labour +115 seats but have only 37.3% of the vote, a gain of 1.3%.
Tories -128 seats on 21.8%m down 19.5%.
Lib Dems +27 seats with 0.0% vote gain.
Reform on 4 seats with 15.0%.

Many of those 128 seats losses are because of the split with Reform.

63/x

Why hasn't the BBC had anyone on from the Tory right tonight?

64/x

BBC adjusts its projections again. Labour 410, Conservative 144, Lib Dems 58, SNP 8, Reform 4.

65/x

BBC shows Tory vote -26% in their 2019 won seats but with Labour only +4% in those. Reform +17% there.

Tories lost their base and handed the massive majority to Labour.

65/x

Sunak holds his seat as does the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt.

Sunak speaking now.

66/x

Sunak says Labour have won and "I will take responsibility for the result".

67/x

Labour now on 305 seats, 326 needed for the official majority. Conservatives on 64, down 153.

68/x

Labour up to 323. Tories till under 70.

69/x

Jacob Rees Mogg loses his North Somerset seat, which ironically pushes Labour over the 326 mark. It's official now.

70/x

Adnan Hussein, an independent, wins Blackburn from Labour. Labour's vote share dropped 39% and a Workers Party candidate finished third with 18%. Gaza has now cost them five seats, two to the Tories and three to independents.

71/x

Make that six, as Iqbal Muhamad takes Dewsbury and Batley on a Labour vote share drop of 36%.

There are a couple more seats with large Muslim populations yet to report.

72/x