Thread by @cjayanetti

While I wait to fall asleep, some thoughts on the election results.

Labour achieving such a giant majority without increasing its vote share in England or Wales from its catastrophic 2019 defeat is extraordinary. It does not follow that this was mere accident or luck, however

Had Labour not detoxified its brand - had the prospect of a Labour government still sparked widespread concern as it did in 2019 (and, to a lesser degree, 2017), the right wing vote would have been much likelier to unite, and the LDs would not have marched through the Tory South

We know this because... that's literally what happened in 2019 - the right wing vote united and the LDs flopped. You might not have seen a Farage/Tory deal as in 2019 (unless Labour had pledged to rejoin the EU or something), but there'd have been less of a civil war on the right

I don't know what the result would have been, but it wouldn't have been a pulverising Labour majority.

There'll inevitably be left-wing downplaying of this result - but I'd be interested to know how they'd explain the triumph of Scottish Labour, which is close to the leadership and is in much better state than it was under the hapless Richard Leonard

Incidentally, the SNP are down but not out - their seat total is far lower than I'd expected, but 30% of the vote in Scotland is a much higher floor than the Tories are experiencing and gives them something to rebound from if the context is right

Where left-wing criticisms will hold water is regarding Labour's Muslim vote in those seats where there was a focused independent challenge.

Labour's leadership badly misjudged its response to Israel cutting off supplies to Gaza - I think to avoid fleeting negative headlines about Labour criticising Israel, and from an assumption that its Muslim voters had nowhere else to go. Wrong before, and wrong again.

And it took a tortuous age for the party to reach the inevitable position of backing an immediate ceasefire, which it reached too late to have much effect on its vote. The result is a breakdown of trust that is not unfixable but will require a lot of focus to rebuild.

It would be remiss, however, not to note that Labour has won a string of seats with large Jewish communities that firmly rejected Labour in 2019. That is an achievement that some will overlook

I'd like to see the age profile of the Reform vote.

Beyond that, I refer to my thoughts last night on restoring basic trust in the capacity of politics to make a difference, and the need for Labour to deliver:

https://x.com/cjayanetti/status/1808987794280493302