A senior Ukrainian officer based in the Kharkiv region tells me the situation is “not critical but very tense everywhere.” The Russians have forced Ukraine to divert troops from Donetsk and are probing the Ukrainian lines. Russia is not in a position to make a major attack. 🧵
Ukraine has accepted it’s on the defensive and is stabilizing the line of contact, says the senior Ukrainian officer. The Russians are trying to establish a cordon sanitaire along the border. They launch assaults every day. There are many wounded on both sides.
The senior Ukrainian officer says Ukraine has 3 main problems: limited ammunition; no air support; not enough experienced personnel. Ukraine’s hopes lie in the Czech ammunition initiative; F-16s in the fall; Syrskyi’s efforts to bring more troops from the rear.
The senior Ukrainian officer says troops don’t have enough ammunition for counter-battery fire as they have to economize shells for relentless Russian assaults. A year ago, Russia also had a shell shortage. He speculates China may be delivering ammunition via North Korea.
The senior Ukrainian officer says the Russians are using 10 times as much ammunition as the Ukrainians are. Ukraine can’t compete with Russia’s arms production. A serious constraint is that Ukrainian weapons plants are in the range of Russian missiles.
The senior Ukrainian officer says the threat of drones means tanks are being used as artillery by both sides 7-8km from the front line. That makes the Russians’ use of old tanks less of an issue as they are essentially cannons.
“Don’t underestimate the Russians,” the senior Ukrainian officer says. The Russians have learned from their defeats in 2022. They use advanced recon drones that see every move on the battlefield; they have “very serious” electronic warfare capabilities.
The senior Ukrainian officer says Russian glide bombs are especially deadly. They can be dropped by planes 20km, even 30km, from their targets. You can’t hide from them. They obliterate everything in a radius of 30m. The Ukrainians have no way to fight back—yet.
It’s wrong to say Russians don’t care about their troops, says the senior Ukrainian officer. The days of the Bakhmut meatgrinder are over. The Russians will fire on Ukrainian lines for 3 days, advance with small assault groups, then go back to massive barrages if not successful.
Ukrainian personnel are often pinned down for 2-3 weeks, says the senior Ukrainian officer. Rotations are extremely dangerous because of enemy drones. Drones also deliver food and water to troops in forward positions. Remote-controlled tracked vehicles evacuate the wounded.
Drone technology makes leaps every 3 months, says the senior Ukrainian officer. While Russians assemble theirs industrially, most of the Ukrainian drones are made by troops themselves. One advantage to that, he says, is that Ukrainians can adapt faster to battlefield conditions.
Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use US weapons to strike inside Russia on the Kharkiv front has not significantly affected the situation, the senior Ukrainian officer says. The Americans have attached too many exceptions on targets to make a big difference.
The senior Ukrainian officer praises US weapons: the Bradley is fast with a powerful gun; the M113, though old, protects its passengers from mine blasts; the F-16 is the only thing that can stop glide bombs because Russian planes will be kept out of range of the front line.
The senior Ukrainian officer says mobilization has created a “war for the poor.” He would tighten measures so mobilization would be more equitable. In a perfect world, he says, Ukraine would have a professional army.
Lack of experience was the main reason last year’s counteroffensive failed, says the senior Ukrainian officer. There was the hope that Western arms would do the job. The troops were not ready but the Russian defense was. “For 3-4 months we banged on a closed door,” he says.
Foreign trainers are needed only to instruct Ukrainians on the use of weapons systems, says the senior Ukrainian officer. Tactics have change enormously since the start of Russia’s invasion, and the Ukrainians are the specialists now. “Drones changed everything,” he says. END
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