The fall of Kherson, the first and biggest ukrainian 🇺🇦defeat of the war.
After seeing northern direction yesterday, lets see how 58th 🇷🇺 and 49th 🇷🇺 CAA took Kherson and Melitopol in two days. Here is an understanding of ukrainian crushing defeat in the south.
🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️
The Russian grouping "Z" in Crimea was composed of around 50 000 men from 2 armies, 49th and 58th CAA, without fortgeting 22nd army corp.
At least they engaged more than 20 Battle Tactical Groups (BTGs), around 20 to 25 000 men. They had also ~12 landing ships.
The Ukrainian grouping was composed of only 1 500 men.
175 were part of 137th separate Marine Bataillon from 36th Marine Brigade. They were tasked at 3 points, Chonhar, Chaplinka and Kalanchak border crossing.
There was also part of the incomplete 59th Motorized Brigade with around 1 300 men. It was based in Radensk near the Olechky sands.
On february 23rd, the commander of Kherson grouping deployed this unit to their frontline positions.
However, they didn't had the time to do so. The commander (probably based in Kakhovka) decided to take the tank bataillon from the 59th to defend Melitopol direction which had nothing.
No, for a few reasons, around 2018, they demined everything, including the bridges to avoid people from being hurt. The minefield in the area where know by everybody.
They tried to destroy bridges, only one was destroyed, near Henichesk.
First, Russian planes and warships fired missiles at every objects of the Kherson region.
Air defense positions where destroyed In Kherson, Nova Kakhovka and Melitopol. 59th motorized brigade base was targeted, as well as Chornobaivka airport in Kherson.
In the morning, ukrainian forces began their retreat from all the military positions, with around 25 russian soldiers for 1 ukrainian.
At this moment, the 59th brigade headed toward the border. It standed its ground against Russian tanks near Brilivka.
On the other side, the 59th brigade tank bataillon and 137th retreated directly to Melitopol while a huge Russian forces took controll of Henichesk nearly whithout fightings. The retreat plan for 137th was already prepared for months.
At 11 a.m. 59th Motorized Brigade was still retreating while defending the road. Part of the russia grouping turned left to encircle Oleshky.
Russian paratroopers and BTG also entered Kakhovka while last ukrainian troops are retreating on the bridge.
During the afternoon, russian forces began crossing Kakhovka dam after its helicopeters secured it.
In Kherson, the situation is quite interesting (i will zoom in just after). Russian took the bridge at 12 a.m. and lost it at 15 p.m.
At 11 a.m. russian reconnaissance take the bridge and destroy ukrainian BRDM 2 reconnaissance. However, most of 59th brigade is still trapped in Oleshky.
Both ukrainian and russian planes are active, striking each others columns.
A russian soldier who fled to France said "I think the ukrainian were fucked up because we were stupidly advancing in columns, it would have been easy to destroy us".
It was the case in fact, i counted 5 ukrainian and 4 russian destroyed, by airstrikes.
At 3p.m. ukrainian 59th motorized brigade counterattack before the next Russian columns arrived at Oleshky.
Helped by 80th air-assault bataillon coming from Mykolaiv, it took back the bridge and retreated to the right bank overnight. (video)
Then, they all retreated to Mykolaiv, while russian BTGs were already running in their back in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblast.
The situation in Melitopol was even worse, 59th Motorized Brigade tank bataillon defended Melitopol, then Tokmak before establishing a new line with other units around Orikhiv, Hulialpole and Kamianske.
What saved ukrainien here is the fast reaction of 35th Marine Brigade, 28th mecanized brigade and 80th air assault which came to defend Mykolaiv, avoiding a direct attack on Odesa.
17th tabk defended Krivi Rih direction before ukrainian reinforcments arrived.
This defeat is the most important because in 2 days, they lost all Kherson and part of Zaporijia oblast.
They failed to destroy Dnipro bridges. If they did so, there would have never been a Kherson and Mykolaiv battle, thus liberating many brigades...
20/20
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L'armée française 🇫🇷 n'est pas prête pour la guerre de 2025
De la tranchée aux drones, en passant par le camouflage et la logistique, tout est à repenser, rapidement.
Les enseignements des guerres d'aujourd'hui
🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️
N'importe quelle armée occidentale subirait des pertes massives sur le champs de bataille en Ukraine par manque d'adaptation à la nouvelle donne de la guerre.
Il n'est plus question d'une guerre contre un groupe armé asymétrique mais contre une armée conventionnelle.
1- Les drones, l'interdiction d'accès au champs de bataille
L'Ukraine et la Russie, c'est la production de millions de drones par an. Ceux-ci sont utilisés pour différentes missions, toutes engageant une refonte de la stratégie militaire.
« It is normal that russian 🇷🇺 forces are not making big progress, they focus on destroying the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 army »
I disagree with this narrative. The Russian strategy is neither attrition nor an attempt at a breakthrough; it is a mixture of both.
🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️
When failing to explain why an army isn't advancing, we try to look away, talking about a battle of attrition where the objective would be to destroy the opponent.
However, since 3 years, Russia has failed to destroy the ukrainian army.
To explain the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2023, many have argued that the goal would be to undermine the Russian army by destroying its assets before attempting a breakthrough.
Of course it was false, the offensive just failed with russian army doing attrition
Vers un accord de paix entre la RDC 🇨🇩 et le Rwanda 🇷🇼 sous l'égide des Etats-Unis 🇺🇸?
Alors que le conflit meurtrier entre le M23 soutenu par le Rwanda et la RDC se poursuit dans l'est du Congo, les Etats-Unis font une entrée en scène inattendue.
🧵THREAD🧵1/9 ⬇️
Le ministre des affaires étrangères rwandais a dévoilé le 6 mai un calendrier pour le processus de paix avec la République démocratique du Congo (RDC), ajoutant que l’accord final devrait être signé à la mi-juin à Washington.
Pour autant, difficile d'évaluer l'impact sur le M23
Un accord sur les minerais devrait être signé entre les Etats-Unis et les deux belligérants, prévoyant des facilités d'investissement d'entreprises américaines dans les mines congolaises et des projets d’infrastructure pour soutenir l’exploitation minière dans les deux pays, y compris la transformation des minerais au Rwanda.
I already visited this particular region, which is home to Ruthenes, Ukrainians, Romanians, Poles and Hungarians. It is very diverse and isolated from the main part of Ukraine.
However, i could still see numerous ukrainian flags.
La visite du président syrien Ahmed Al Charaa est instrumentalisée. L'on y dénonce, à des fins politiques, l'accueil d'un ancien djihadiste à l'Elysée.
Mais du point de vue diplomatique, qu'est-ce qui justifie cet accueil ?
🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️
C'est une constance, la France a rejeté depuis 2011, le régime sanguinaire de Bachar Al Assad, soutenant une société civile et une opposition en exil et refusant la compromission avec Al Assad.
Pour beaucoup, Assad fut le protecteur des minorités, ce qui en réalité est faux.
Des personnalités politiques françaises, qui n'ont pas sourcillées pendant les 14 ans d'envoi des jeunes alaouites, chrétiens, druzes et autres au front pour massacrer des sunnites (rebelles ou djihadistes) dans la guerre civile se réveillent finalement quand le régime tombe.
Russian 🇷🇺 forces managed to breakthrough the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka line and start fightings inside the trenches of the line.
For the first time, russian forces can hope reaching Kostiantynivka from the south after pushing back ukrainians 🇺🇦 from Toretsk.
🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️
On this long video, a ukrainian VAB 🇫🇷🇺🇦 is targeted at the entrance of a large trench network with few dugouts.
Ukrainian soldiers jump in and start fighting against russian soldiers who took control of the fortified position, they also face constant drone attacks.
As I already said many times, those kinds of positions are not suitable for defense, in the open with not enough dugout positions, despite stong fondations (woods).
Russian observation drones can see everything and FPV drones can strike soldiers in the open.