The fall of Kherson, the first and biggest ukrainian 🇺🇦defeat of the war.
After seeing northern direction yesterday, lets see how 58th 🇷🇺 and 49th 🇷🇺 CAA took Kherson and Melitopol in two days. Here is an understanding of ukrainian crushing defeat in the south.
🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️
The Russian grouping "Z" in Crimea was composed of around 50 000 men from 2 armies, 49th and 58th CAA, without fortgeting 22nd army corp.
At least they engaged more than 20 Battle Tactical Groups (BTGs), around 20 to 25 000 men. They had also ~12 landing ships.
The Ukrainian grouping was composed of only 1 500 men.
175 were part of 137th separate Marine Bataillon from 36th Marine Brigade. They were tasked at 3 points, Chonhar, Chaplinka and Kalanchak border crossing.
There was also part of the incomplete 59th Motorized Brigade with around 1 300 men. It was based in Radensk near the Olechky sands.
On february 23rd, the commander of Kherson grouping deployed this unit to their frontline positions.
However, they didn't had the time to do so. The commander (probably based in Kakhovka) decided to take the tank bataillon from the 59th to defend Melitopol direction which had nothing.
No, for a few reasons, around 2018, they demined everything, including the bridges to avoid people from being hurt. The minefield in the area where know by everybody.
They tried to destroy bridges, only one was destroyed, near Henichesk.
First, Russian planes and warships fired missiles at every objects of the Kherson region.
Air defense positions where destroyed In Kherson, Nova Kakhovka and Melitopol. 59th motorized brigade base was targeted, as well as Chornobaivka airport in Kherson.
In the morning, ukrainian forces began their retreat from all the military positions, with around 25 russian soldiers for 1 ukrainian.
At this moment, the 59th brigade headed toward the border. It standed its ground against Russian tanks near Brilivka.
On the other side, the 59th brigade tank bataillon and 137th retreated directly to Melitopol while a huge Russian forces took controll of Henichesk nearly whithout fightings. The retreat plan for 137th was already prepared for months.
At 11 a.m. 59th Motorized Brigade was still retreating while defending the road. Part of the russia grouping turned left to encircle Oleshky.
Russian paratroopers and BTG also entered Kakhovka while last ukrainian troops are retreating on the bridge.
During the afternoon, russian forces began crossing Kakhovka dam after its helicopeters secured it.
In Kherson, the situation is quite interesting (i will zoom in just after). Russian took the bridge at 12 a.m. and lost it at 15 p.m.
At 11 a.m. russian reconnaissance take the bridge and destroy ukrainian BRDM 2 reconnaissance. However, most of 59th brigade is still trapped in Oleshky.
Both ukrainian and russian planes are active, striking each others columns.
A russian soldier who fled to France said "I think the ukrainian were fucked up because we were stupidly advancing in columns, it would have been easy to destroy us".
It was the case in fact, i counted 5 ukrainian and 4 russian destroyed, by airstrikes.
At 3p.m. ukrainian 59th motorized brigade counterattack before the next Russian columns arrived at Oleshky.
Helped by 80th air-assault bataillon coming from Mykolaiv, it took back the bridge and retreated to the right bank overnight. (video)
Then, they all retreated to Mykolaiv, while russian BTGs were already running in their back in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblast.
The situation in Melitopol was even worse, 59th Motorized Brigade tank bataillon defended Melitopol, then Tokmak before establishing a new line with other units around Orikhiv, Hulialpole and Kamianske.
What saved ukrainien here is the fast reaction of 35th Marine Brigade, 28th mecanized brigade and 80th air assault which came to defend Mykolaiv, avoiding a direct attack on Odesa.
17th tabk defended Krivi Rih direction before ukrainian reinforcments arrived.
This defeat is the most important because in 2 days, they lost all Kherson and part of Zaporijia oblast.
They failed to destroy Dnipro bridges. If they did so, there would have never been a Kherson and Mykolaiv battle, thus liberating many brigades...
20/20
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After 10 days of war between Iran 🇮🇷 and the USA/Israel 🇺🇸🇮🇱, the economical situation is worsening
Here is a new MAP UPDATE with the military situation, the economical situation, some analysis and some prospects :
🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️
The war has been going on for now more than 10 days and the repercussion are felt worldwide.
Iran held despite constant strikes which obliterated its navy and airforce and still continues to launch important drone and missile strikes across the region.
The death of Ayatollah Khamenei which was quickly replaced within ten days by his son didn't have the expected results.
The Iranian president and part of the leadership is still alive, while the IRCG individuals now understood that their bases are not safe.
Quelles implications pour chaque Etat du Moyen-Orient dans la guerre ?
Chacun des ~19 Etats de la région est touché de manière plus ou moins profonde par la guerre, voici un petit résumé Etat par Etat.
🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️
(Partenariat qui peut vous servir) :
L'histoire et la géopolitique de la région étant complexe, pour ceux qui n'ont pas eu de cours dessus ou veulent se remettre à niveau, voici une formation :
La Turquie a abattu un missile iranien au dessus de son territoire, des débris sont retombés dans le Hatay.
🔹Armée : Ankara a massé des troupes à sa frontière sud-est, non pas pour intervenir en Iran, mais pour empêcher un afflux massif de réfugiés et surveiller les mouvements kurdes qui pourraient profiter du chaos.
🔹Politique : Erdogan adopte une posture de condamnation de l'offensive américaine, tout en laissant les radars de l'OTAN sur son sol fournir des données cruciales aux alliés. Il joue la médiation pour ne pas perdre son influence sur le marché énergétique.
🔹La Turquie est dans une mauvaise posture. La guerre pourrait créer une crise des réfugiés massive à sa frontière, sa politique basée sur l'entente entre les pays musulmans se voit impactée et le renforcement d'Israël est un mauvais signal pour Ankara. La Turquie surveille de près les kurdes d'Iran (qu'elle considère comme une menace) et les azéris d'Iran, de potentiels alliés turciques.
🔹En cas de chute du régime, Ankara perdra le rôle qu'elle joue actuellement dans la région, notamment sur l'aspect commercial et sécuritaire. La Turquie n'a aucun intérêt à avoir un Iran pro-américain et puissant à sa frontière.
After 8 days of war between Iran 🇮🇷 and the USA/Israel 🇺🇸🇮🇱, here is a new MAP UPDATE
In total, the US and Israel conducted around 4 500 strikes across Iran, while Iran retaliated with 3 500 vectors, including ~905 missiles.
🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️
Despite facing significant challenges due to Israeli-American air supremacy over Iranian territory, Iranian retaliatory strikes continue across the Middle East, while the United States continues to accumulate damage to its bases.
After initial strikes that had few results (except in Bahrain and Kuwait), Iran used more precise missiles to strike four AN/TPY-2 (THAAD) radars, blinding the region's air defenses and limiting response time.
The massive consumption of Patriot missiles also raises concerns about a potential shortage.
French 🇫🇷 president Emmanuel Macron is currently speaking on National TV about the situation in the Middle East and the implication of french armed forces to defend the region.
Everything he says about the situation will be here ⬇️
🧵THREAD🧵1/⬇️
"The Islamic Republic of Iran bears primary responsibility for this situation, through the continuation of its nuclear program.
It is Iran that has armed and financed terrorist groups in neighboring countries and supported Hamas and the objective of destroying Israel."
"The US and Israeli strikes have been conducted outside the bounds of international law."