Clément Molin Profile picture
Jul 5, 2024 20 tweets 7 min read Read on X
The fall of Kherson, the first and biggest ukrainian 🇺🇦defeat of the war.

After seeing northern direction yesterday, lets see how 58th 🇷🇺 and 49th 🇷🇺 CAA took Kherson and Melitopol in two days. Here is an understanding of ukrainian crushing defeat in the south.

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The Russian grouping "Z" in Crimea was composed of around 50 000 men from 2 armies, 49th and 58th CAA, without fortgeting 22nd army corp.

At least they engaged more than 20 Battle Tactical Groups (BTGs), around 20 to 25 000 men. They had also ~12 landing ships. Image
The Ukrainian grouping was composed of only 1 500 men.
175 were part of 137th separate Marine Bataillon from 36th Marine Brigade. They were tasked at 3 points, Chonhar, Chaplinka and Kalanchak border crossing. Image
There was also part of the incomplete 59th Motorized Brigade with around 1 300 men. It was based in Radensk near the Olechky sands.

On february 23rd, the commander of Kherson grouping deployed this unit to their frontline positions. Image
However, they didn't had the time to do so. The commander (probably based in Kakhovka) decided to take the tank bataillon from the 59th to defend Melitopol direction which had nothing.

He said he needed 4 brigades to hold the frontline, he had barely one
pravda.com.ua/articles/2023/…
Was the terrain mined ?

No, for a few reasons, around 2018, they demined everything, including the bridges to avoid people from being hurt. The minefield in the area where know by everybody.
They tried to destroy bridges, only one was destroyed, near Henichesk. Image
Now, how the attack happened ?

Thread n°1 : first part

Thread n°2 : second part

Thread n°3 : third part


First, Russian planes and warships fired missiles at every objects of the Kherson region.
Air defense positions where destroyed In Kherson, Nova Kakhovka and Melitopol. 59th motorized brigade base was targeted, as well as Chornobaivka airport in Kherson. Image
In the morning, ukrainian forces began their retreat from all the military positions, with around 25 russian soldiers for 1 ukrainian.

At this moment, the 59th brigade headed toward the border. It standed its ground against Russian tanks near Brilivka. Image
On the other side, the 59th brigade tank bataillon and 137th retreated directly to Melitopol while a huge Russian forces took controll of Henichesk nearly whithout fightings. The retreat plan for 137th was already prepared for months. Image
At 11 a.m. 59th Motorized Brigade was still retreating while defending the road. Part of the russia grouping turned left to encircle Oleshky.

Russian paratroopers and BTG also entered Kakhovka while last ukrainian troops are retreating on the bridge. Image
During the afternoon, russian forces began crossing Kakhovka dam after its helicopeters secured it.

In Kherson, the situation is quite interesting (i will zoom in just after). Russian took the bridge at 12 a.m. and lost it at 15 p.m. Image
At 11 a.m. russian reconnaissance take the bridge and destroy ukrainian BRDM 2 reconnaissance. However, most of 59th brigade is still trapped in Oleshky.

Both ukrainian and russian planes are active, striking each others columns. Image
A russian soldier who fled to France said "I think the ukrainian were fucked up because we were stupidly advancing in columns, it would have been easy to destroy us".

It was the case in fact, i counted 5 ukrainian and 4 russian destroyed, by airstrikes.
At 3p.m. ukrainian 59th motorized brigade counterattack before the next Russian columns arrived at Oleshky.
Helped by 80th air-assault bataillon coming from Mykolaiv, it took back the bridge and retreated to the right bank overnight. (video)

The next day in the morning, ukrainian forces are controlling the antonovski bridge in Kherson. There is even a CNN journalist there !

but in the afternoon, 59th and 80th brigade are forced to retreat after the threat of encirclement.
Then, they all retreated to Mykolaiv, while russian BTGs were already running in their back in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblast. Image
The situation in Melitopol was even worse, 59th Motorized Brigade tank bataillon defended Melitopol, then Tokmak before establishing a new line with other units around Orikhiv, Hulialpole and Kamianske. Image
What saved ukrainien here is the fast reaction of 35th Marine Brigade, 28th mecanized brigade and 80th air assault which came to defend Mykolaiv, avoiding a direct attack on Odesa.
17th tabk defended Krivi Rih direction before ukrainian reinforcments arrived.
This defeat is the most important because in 2 days, they lost all Kherson and part of Zaporijia oblast.

They failed to destroy Dnipro bridges. If they did so, there would have never been a Kherson and Mykolaiv battle, thus liberating many brigades...

20/20 Image

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More from @clement_molin

May 7
Comment suivre la guerre en Ukraine 🇺🇦🇷🇺 soit-même ?

Oubliez Liveuamap, oubliez l'ISW, oubliez les médias traditionnel, il est ici question des véritables outils accessibles gratuitement !

Les outils en sources ouvertes pour suivre la guerre en Ukraine :

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1- Une bonne carte

Il existe des dizaines de cartes en ligne, voici les plus intéressantes :

🔹map.ukrdailyupdate.com (pro-ukraine, mais avec plus de 200 vidéos géolocalisées par jour)
🔹playframap.github.io (carte de Playfra, pro-ukraine mais la carte est plutôt neutre, utilisant de nombreuses sources de terrain)
🔹deepstatemap.live (pro-ukraine, proche du gouvernement ukrainien mais conservant une constance dans la guerre + beaucoup des sources de terrain)
🔹google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie… (carte d'AMK mapping, pro-russe, carte bien plus progressive que les autres)
🔹ukraineviews.org (outil rassemblant 12 ! cartes interactives dont 6 pro-russes)
🔹uacontrolmap.com (carte neutre utilisant uniquement les vidéos géolocalisées)
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2- Bases de données des pertes de militaires :

🔹Pour la Russie : en.zona.media/article/2026/0… (média russe dissident)
🔹Pour l'Ukraine : ualosses.org/en/soldiers/ (groupe ukrainien, infos concordantes avec d'autres sources) Image
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Read 22 tweets
May 5
Dans le sud de l'Ukraine 🇺🇦, l'offensive russe s'intensifie autour d'Orikhiv, l'armée ukrainienne fait face à des difficultés localisées.

J'ai cartographié plus de 1 500 impacts de frappes aériennes qui montrent la direction de l'offensive russe 🇷🇺.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️ Image
En février, j'avais réalisé cette carte montrant les probables objectifs russes pour l'année dans le secteur.

Cet objectif semble encore d'actualité au vu de la direction de l'offensive mais les défenses ont été renforcées. Image
Donc, l'objectif russe est de prendre Orikhiv. Pour cela, il faut absolument contrôler les hauteurs au nord-est.

L'armée russe multiplie les infiltrations et s'est emparé d'une partie de Zaliznychne. La clé ici, c'est Ternuvate, qui permettait de sécuriser le flanc nord. Image
Read 15 tweets
May 3
L'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 poursuit la fortification d'au moins 45 villes de différentes tailles pour préparer la défense sur le long terme.

Parmi les grandes villes, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Soumy ou Tchernihiv ont été renforcées.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Image
Commençons au nord, oblast de Tchernihiv. (rouge = tranchées et surtout fossés anti-chats, blanc = barbelés et dents de dragons)

Défenses de Hrodnia + 3 lignes en amont
Défenses en construction à Snovsk et Koriukivka
Défenses de Ripky et Tchernihiv
Défenses de Novhorod-Siverskyï Image
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Oblast de Soumy :

Défenses circulaires de Chotska
Défenses circulaires de Hloukhiv
Défenses circulaires de Putyl et Buryn
Défenses circulaires de Konotop (anciennes) Image
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Read 10 tweets
May 1
I agree with what is being said in this thread. Russia 🇷🇺 has been unable for now to reach Dobropilla, which is a critical town to take before attacking Kramatorsk.

However, recent successes in the Siversk and Kostiantynivka directions may unblock the situation

🧵THREAD🧵1/12⬇️ Image
There is one good reason for the failure to advance to Dobropilla this after the august 2024 breakthrough and it's mainly about terrain and logistics.

Assaulting from the east has been difficult because of a well known "kill zone" and well established ukrainian defenses. Image
Instead, Russia had been assaulting westward of Pokrovsk since the start of the year.

The main reason is to unblock the agglomeration's hub position. They had lately some successes and continue to push further. Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 30
Le début d'année 2026 n'est pas très bon pour l'armée russe 🇷🇺 qui accumule les revers.

Si la traditionnelle offensive de printemps n'a pas encore commencé, les forces russes ont laissé beaucoup de temps aux ukrainiens pour se fortifier.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
La progression russe n'est pas vraiment le facteur le plus important, puisqu'elle suit les saisons, augmentation au printemps et baisse à l'automne.

Mais cette année, on remarque quand même des chiffres faibles pour les 4 derniers mois et pour 15 000 attaques sur 3 mois ! Image
L'année dernière, l'armée russe avait beaucoup de territoires peu défendus, sans grands obstacles et sans grandes villes à prendre, résultats des petites percées de 2024.

Cela lui donnait la possibilité d'avancer continuellement. Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 29
This month of April alone, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched 450 (!) successful strikes on Russia 🇷🇺 and occupied territories.

Among those are part of the nearly 600 mid-range strikes with FP-1 and FP-2 drones into occupied territories since the year started.

🧵THREAD🧵1/7 ⬇️ Image
On this second map, you can see all those mid-range strikes into occupied territories since the year started (most are after march 2026).

In total, around 600 geolocated strikes have been confirmed, hitting various targets in the region. Image
Among those strikes, we now have 34 air-defense systems hit (which does not mean destroyed), 29 radars, or 32 trucks, mainly by long range FPV. Image
Read 7 tweets

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