The fall of Kherson, the first and biggest ukrainian 🇺🇦defeat of the war.
After seeing northern direction yesterday, lets see how 58th 🇷🇺 and 49th 🇷🇺 CAA took Kherson and Melitopol in two days. Here is an understanding of ukrainian crushing defeat in the south.
🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️
The Russian grouping "Z" in Crimea was composed of around 50 000 men from 2 armies, 49th and 58th CAA, without fortgeting 22nd army corp.
At least they engaged more than 20 Battle Tactical Groups (BTGs), around 20 to 25 000 men. They had also ~12 landing ships.
The Ukrainian grouping was composed of only 1 500 men.
175 were part of 137th separate Marine Bataillon from 36th Marine Brigade. They were tasked at 3 points, Chonhar, Chaplinka and Kalanchak border crossing.
There was also part of the incomplete 59th Motorized Brigade with around 1 300 men. It was based in Radensk near the Olechky sands.
On february 23rd, the commander of Kherson grouping deployed this unit to their frontline positions.
However, they didn't had the time to do so. The commander (probably based in Kakhovka) decided to take the tank bataillon from the 59th to defend Melitopol direction which had nothing.
No, for a few reasons, around 2018, they demined everything, including the bridges to avoid people from being hurt. The minefield in the area where know by everybody.
They tried to destroy bridges, only one was destroyed, near Henichesk.
First, Russian planes and warships fired missiles at every objects of the Kherson region.
Air defense positions where destroyed In Kherson, Nova Kakhovka and Melitopol. 59th motorized brigade base was targeted, as well as Chornobaivka airport in Kherson.
In the morning, ukrainian forces began their retreat from all the military positions, with around 25 russian soldiers for 1 ukrainian.
At this moment, the 59th brigade headed toward the border. It standed its ground against Russian tanks near Brilivka.
On the other side, the 59th brigade tank bataillon and 137th retreated directly to Melitopol while a huge Russian forces took controll of Henichesk nearly whithout fightings. The retreat plan for 137th was already prepared for months.
At 11 a.m. 59th Motorized Brigade was still retreating while defending the road. Part of the russia grouping turned left to encircle Oleshky.
Russian paratroopers and BTG also entered Kakhovka while last ukrainian troops are retreating on the bridge.
During the afternoon, russian forces began crossing Kakhovka dam after its helicopeters secured it.
In Kherson, the situation is quite interesting (i will zoom in just after). Russian took the bridge at 12 a.m. and lost it at 15 p.m.
At 11 a.m. russian reconnaissance take the bridge and destroy ukrainian BRDM 2 reconnaissance. However, most of 59th brigade is still trapped in Oleshky.
Both ukrainian and russian planes are active, striking each others columns.
A russian soldier who fled to France said "I think the ukrainian were fucked up because we were stupidly advancing in columns, it would have been easy to destroy us".
It was the case in fact, i counted 5 ukrainian and 4 russian destroyed, by airstrikes.
At 3p.m. ukrainian 59th motorized brigade counterattack before the next Russian columns arrived at Oleshky.
Helped by 80th air-assault bataillon coming from Mykolaiv, it took back the bridge and retreated to the right bank overnight. (video)
Then, they all retreated to Mykolaiv, while russian BTGs were already running in their back in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblast.
The situation in Melitopol was even worse, 59th Motorized Brigade tank bataillon defended Melitopol, then Tokmak before establishing a new line with other units around Orikhiv, Hulialpole and Kamianske.
What saved ukrainien here is the fast reaction of 35th Marine Brigade, 28th mecanized brigade and 80th air assault which came to defend Mykolaiv, avoiding a direct attack on Odesa.
17th tabk defended Krivi Rih direction before ukrainian reinforcments arrived.
This defeat is the most important because in 2 days, they lost all Kherson and part of Zaporijia oblast.
They failed to destroy Dnipro bridges. If they did so, there would have never been a Kherson and Mykolaiv battle, thus liberating many brigades...
20/20
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Since the US 🇺🇸 - Israeli 🇮🇱 operations in Iran 🇮🇷 started, more than 15 000 aistrikes happened, half by the IDF, half by the USAF
Since the first day, I made around 10 different maps and gathered multiple others. Here, you can see two zones of strikes :
🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️
My very first map was made with preliminary informations, showing US/ISR strikes and Iranian retaliation on the first day.
Then, I started gathering the first informations from the first few days of war. You can see which areas are the most targeted in Iran at the time, mainly the big cities as well as the western part of the country.
En cartes, les 19 jours d'opérations israélo 🇮🇱 -américaines 🇺🇸 en Iran 🇮🇷
J'ai cartographié 250 villes/villages différents frappés en Iran, 235 au Liban et 170 au Moyen-Orient :
🧵THREAD🧵1/22 ⬇️
En tout, les Etats-Unis et Israël auraient réalisé plus de 15 000 frappes sur l'Iran, un chiffre qui reste à vérifier.
En tout, j'ai pu confirmer 1 450 frappes (min), avec une différence entre les villes ayant les données géolocalisées et celles avec le nombre de bombardements.
Au Liban, j'ai pu confirmer plus de 1 200 impacts de frappes israéliennes, en particulier dans le sud et à Beyrouth.
Au Moyen-Orient, j'ai pu compter plus de 650 impacts/frappes iraniennes, même si la réalité se trouve entre 3 000 et 3 700 frappes de ripostes.
Ukraine 🇺🇦 continues its advance in the south, strikes on Russian rear lines, while the Russian offensive on Dobropilla begins: an update on the war in Ukraine:
The Ukrainian army's tactical successes should not hide the difficulty of the overall situation.
🧵THREAD🧵1/21 ⬇️
Ukrainian forces continued their local counter-attacks south of Pokrovsk'e, reaching Novohryhorivka and probably Novoivanivka on the Velika Novosilka - Hulialpole road.
This does not mean they control the area. At the same time, russian forces continue to push westwards.
Ukrainian forces have a significant advantage in the area with the control of 3 tactical heights behind rivers, especially around Prossiana, Mezhova and Ternuvate.
Russian forces are in a difficult terrain without any town or road, which is making any movement difficult.
I analysed the last two years of russian units deployments on the frontlines.
Here are the localisation of the russian brigades and divisions in the last two years in the frontline areas I cut (Could do that with the 6 grouping as well). You can see the frontline trends.
Here you have the current localisation of russian brigades and divisions on the frontline.
La Hongrie 🇭🇺 au tournant, deux immenses marches organisées à Budapest à 1 mois des élections :
Une marche pro-Orban ("pour la paix" et Anti-Zelenski) est organisée devant le Parlement.
Une marche pro-Magyar (opposition) organisée au Heros' Square.
🧵THREAD🧵1/⬇️
C'est un jour historique pour la Hongrie. A moins d'un mois des élections générales qui opposeront principalement Victor Orban (extrême droite, au pouvoir depuis 15 ans) et le leader de l'opposition Peter Magyar (droite conservatrice), deux grandes manifestations sont en cours.
Des centaines de milliers de hongrois "anti-guerre", pro-Orban, anti-UE/Zelenski rassemblés devant le Parlement de Budapest.
On aperçoit surtout des personnes plus âgées, des militants pro-russes et anti-guerre. Rassemblés devant le parlement, ils sont environ 200 000.