1/ Here is how many tanks are left at Russian storage bases in mid 2024, as usual done together with @CovertCabal. We have made some changes to our methodology which I will explain in this thread together with some further analysis.⬇️
2/ First of all here are the numbers by type and base. As you can see Russia has removed about 2500 tanks from visible storage, but the removal rate has declined from 115 tanks per month in the first 16 months to roughly 60 tanks per month over the last year.
3/ Initially Russia had a lot of reserve tanks in good condition which were taken out of storage quickly and the rate was likely even higher than 115 per month since they had some tanks stored in garages. They could likely compensate their high initial losses.
4/ Over the last year the rate of removal was roughly 60 tanks per month, which is not enough to compensate losses of at least 93 tanks per month (according to @WarSpotting ). The reason for this is probably that the remaining tanks in storage are in increasingly worse condition
5/ Here are some images from the ground. Many of them are already more than 15 years old so these tanks will likely look even worse by now.
6/ It is almost impossible to determine if a tank can be brought back or not from satelite images, but there are definetly many tanks among the remaining vehicles, which in my opinion wont ever run again. On the other hand some tanks that look like this have been removed.
7/ It is possible that these tanks are only suitable for total overhauls. As you can see in this screenshot from a Russian MOD video of Omsktransmash the hulls dont have to be in good shape to be refurbished.
8/ With enough money, time and spare parts it is probably possible to refurbish any tank, but the process will become more costly over time. Additionally Russia has so far focused on setting up refurbishing/upgrade capacity only for some types (T-80s, T-72B variants and T-62s).
9/ They havent removed T-72A/Ural tanks in bigger numbers and if there is a reason for that, apart from the tanks being in bad shape or having a sufficient stockpile of T-72B then there might be another 1000 tanks with only limited usability.
10/ I dont think there will be any specific point where Russia will run out of tanks, but their tank fleet will likely be slowly but continously shrinking over time, which will have an effect on their offensive capabilities.
11/ It should also be noted that we have made some changes to the identifications of the tanks at some spots, mainly because of previous errors or new ground footage. The identification of individual tank types is often uncertain and there might be further changes in the future.
12/ The total number is probably quite accurate, although it is possible that they still have some tanks in garages. I dont think that this is likely but there is no way to be sure. Additionally there are some more tanks at the 61st, 103rd and 560th BTRZ.
13/ I am also planning to write a thread with predictions for the future of each tank type, which will likely be posted tomorrow.
Since multiple people have asked for it here is the breakdown for the condition of the individual tank types:
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
