🧵Widely cited letter in @lancet ridiculously implies total Gaza fatalities could be 186,000. Close review shows this short piece is based on junk research citing unreliable sources, gross misrepresentations, errors & omissions. This is a bad look for Lancet. Analysis: 1/
Piece starts by citing Hamas number of 37,396 fatalities citing UN OCHA – but negligently omitting that OCHA takes these numbers from Hamas. To back this number authors claim the figures are “accepted as accurate by Israeli intelligence services” – but this claim is false. 2/
Authors cite as only evidence a Vice article citing a Mekomit article claiming unnamed Israeli “intelligence sources” found Hamas numbers reliable. Author's admit “Israeli authorities” reject Hamas numbers, yet still rely on a fringe news item based on unidentified sources. 3/
Next paragraph of letter is filled with falsehoods. First, Gaza Health Ministry did not augment body counts from “reliable media sources” but unnamed media including social media, none of which can be called “reliable.” Real int’l media has almost zero presence inside Gaza. 4/
Next, there is zero evidence that some Gazan “first responders” are counting bodies in addition to “Gaza Health Ministry,” this concept is made up by the authors. In fact, deaths are “augmented” by a Google Form open to anyone, which the authors omit. 5/ sehatty.ps/moh-registrati…
The shoddy research of the "correspondence" is highlighted when authors claim UN estimated 35% of Gaza had been “destroyed” – but the UN study the authors cite says only 12% "destroyed." Did authors bother to review the original source? (35% refers to destroyed & damaged). 6/
Now to preposterous claim: "it is not implausible" that 186,000+ deaths "could be attributable" to conflict in Gaza, based on authors' "research" that “conservatively” there are 4 indirect deaths per direct death, so 37,400 x 5 =187,000. Where does this concept come from? 7/
Source is Global Burden of Armed Conflict document published by group called the “Geneva Declaration”; but concept of "indirect deaths" is a post-conflict event due to the breakdown in services, lack of food; NOT part of the active phase of the war, see below from p. 53. 8/
Thus implying that in Gaza today perhaps 4x indirect deaths may have already happened is a gross & deliberate misrepresentation of "indirect deaths" as explained in Global Burden of Armed Violence. This is specifically a number that can only be assessed in post-war future. 9/
We again see shoddiness of research, as citation for Global Burden of Armed Violence is strangely to "UN Office of Drugs and Crime" that links to the 2008 World Drug Report. I found the actual document elsewhere; note Geneva Declaration is not a UN entity as endnote implies. 10/
Authors also deliberately omit IDF estimate of 17,000 combatants killed while arguing Hamas number is accurate, falsely claiming Israel agrees. Amazingly, in assessing total casualties, many concepts & statistics are discussed, but this it somehow irrelevant to authors. 11/
Authors inflate war fatalities using misrepresented & unreliable evidence, argue that Hamas numbers are fact, omit IDF numbers of combatants killed & ignore key statistics like civilian/combatant ratios & IPC data on starvation mortality (almost zero). Junk in Junk out. 12/
In Dec 23 Lancet published another letter claiming Hamas numbers were accurate (now you know how to get published in Lancet) using UNRWA workers killed as a proxy. But if this correlation is true, then today Hamas has overstated fatalities by 14,000. END
@martinmckee did not like being exposed for fraudulent research
@martinmckee Now @martinmckee is explaining that the 186,000 fatality figure is "purely illustrative" which means it's serving as an example, not meant to be real. So why so vague in the article?
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🧵Ta-Nehisi Coates The Message analysis Part II: Coates engages in obsessive denial of Jewish history (a “fairy tale”) and Holocaust inversion. Plus more lies, misrepresentations & omissions. A fantasy narrative where evil Jews are everywhere, even a hotel lobby. Detail: 1/
To Coates, archeology in Israel is nefarious, not genuine science but agenda driven, untrustworthy “Zionist archeology.” Coates engages in Jewish history denialism as if ancient Jewish roots in the Holy Land are not fact – it’s a “desperate need” to prove "Jewish nationhood." 2/
Coates’ Jewish history denialism is confirmed by his constant harping on this topic, that City of David site “felt so fake” and that Eretz Israel was the “ostensible homecoming of an ancient people.” In fact, to Coates Jewish history is a “fairy tale and an enormous con.” 3/
🧵Te-Nehisi Coates The Message is an anti-Israel, antisemitic screed filled with lies, misrepresentations & omissions (especially). He calls Israel the most evil nation on earth. His academic fraudulence is only exceeded by his vicious hate for Israel. Detailed analysis: 1/
Coates’ first sentence deliberately reflects his hope & dream: no Jewish state. He makes clear he believes there is only one legitimate people with rights in the Holy Land – Palestinians. He disgustingly says Holocaust center Yad Vashem is based in Palestine. Tone firmly set. 2/
Coates lies & misrepresents often, on every page. First of a small sample of examples: he falsely claims the Temple Mount run by the “occupying power” is unfair, as “Israelis regularly tour Al-Aqsa” while “Palestinians are barred from the Western Wall.” 3/
🧵The assertion that Israel has no right of self defense against Hamas within Gaza because it is "occupied" is false (as often stated by @mehdirhasan). Inane claim is based on ICJ advisory opinion – but a key clause in this same document says the opposite! Analysis: 1/
First, notion that Gaza is occupied is baseless and relies on fabricated int'l law applied to Israel alone. But for this discussion let's assume Gaza is in fact occupied. With this in hand people next look to an Int'l Court of Justice (ICJ) Advisory Opinion from 2004. 2/
ICJ opinion is: "Legal Consequences of the Construction of a Wall in the Occupied Palestinian Territory" about separation barrier. Importantly it is an advisory opinion, not codified int'l law. So it's not actual law, but let's again accept it is. 3/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_Con…
🧵Fake NGOs, much of media and Israel haters are already pretending Hezbollah is not using civilian Lebanon for its military, hiding missiles & arms depots, etc. inside homes. They ignore the many examples below. Why? Because their favored side – Hezbollah – is losing. 1/
Dramatic video of cruise missile hidden inside civilian home with wall that can be removed for launching. The size & location of the missile is shocking – but won’t sway the Israel haters. 2/
🧵HAMAS’ HUMAN SHIELD STRATEGY COMPRISES 9 KEY ELEMENTS. A strategy devised over 20 years to force Israel to choose between: (1) granting Hamas immunity to commit 10/7 again (2) removing Hamas knowing civilians will be killed. Post-10/7, immunity was not an option. Analysis: 1/
2. Hamas booby-trapped 40% of buildings in Gaza, the main above ground transformation of civilian Gaza for combat. Many IDF soldiers have been killed by these traps. Neutralizing this threat has caused high destruction in Gaza. See thread for more detail:
🧵40% of Gaza buildings were booby-trapped by Hamas — a core component of its human shield strategy. All of Gaza became a battlefield due to Hamas. IDF reports 96,500 rigged sites; UN data shows ~250,000 structures in Gaza. Explains why much of Gaza is destroyed. Sources: 1/
@Doron_Kadosh reports on the massive booby trap threat which just killed 4 soldiers. Groups of 30-40 buildings in Rafah were rigged in advance, with cameras and remote activation. 96,500 rigged sites in all of Gaza, 14,000 in Rafah along. Staggering. 2/
According the the UN UNOSAT (United Nations Satellite Centre) which has mapped Gaza since beginning of war, there are 248,268 total structures in Gaza. Thus 38.9% of Gaza was rigged by Hamas to explode on the IDF. Link to UN data: 3/ unosat.org/products/3904