As America debates if Biden is fit & can win over Trump there's a much more significant risk to American democracy:
In a professional rerun of a failed haphazardly organized '20 scheme SCOTUS could overturn the '24 election. 1/
The History
The election of 2020 saw a number of haphazardly organised and ultimately failing schemes to overturn the election of Joe Biden. The common motif of these efforts was the lie that the election was "rigged" and ultimately that an accurate result can't be delivered.
2/
One of the '20 schemes to overturn the election had active involvement by wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, Ginni. She pressured lawmakers in Arizona and Wisconsin to ignore the vote and select Trump electors to "fight back against fraud". 3/ azmirror.com/2022/06/21/how…
Ginni & Heritage Foundation
Project 2025 recently brought this ultra conservative "think tank" into the public focus. Ginni Thomas started working for Heritage in 2000, later acted as Bush WH liaison. Links to people connected to Heritage also appear in the '20 Arizona plot. 4/
Ginni & Federalist Society
At Heritage Ginni was tasked to select suitable candidates for the judiciary, also focus of the equally conservative Federalist Society. Here ties are even stronger with the group's Leonard Leo being a close friend of the Thomas family since decades. 5/
Stealing Presidency '24 - The Preparation
Societal, liberal changes in the US have long been perceived as threat by conservative activists. Installing life long appointed conservative & activist judges/justices, especially in SCOTUS, laid a foundation for future minority rule.
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The second component is societal polarization with a radicalized, increasingly militant constituency at the right that identifies societal change, even the status quo, as an existential threat.
Stoking distrust in federal institutions, dismantling federal authority is part 3.
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Working the election process, gerrymandering, disenfranchisment, is the final part to prepare a takeover. Bush v Gore showed that the judiciary can be used to determine the outcome of an election. Claiming elections are rigged is groundwork to put elections to the judiciary.
8/
Stealing Presidency '24 - The Plot
Central to a hypothetical steal of the '24 election is to provoke a constitutional crisis by disrupting, spoiling an official act, the election.
Then escalate this to a situation in which SCOTUS rules the outcome.
Jan 6 meets Bush v Gore.
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Phase 1: Dog whistles & Radicalization
- Ramp up narratives the election will be rigged
- Peddle conspiracies playing on lower instincts and fear
- Mobilize militant groups, increase presence on streets
- Make egregious claims of a Trump landslide
/10
Phase 2: Spoiling the Ballot
- Increase pressure on the streets before and on election day
- attack ballot drop boxes, provoke 46 admin to ramp up security
- instill chaos/clashes using militant groups
- use chaos to spoil the election process locally
/11
Phase 3: Overrule the Vote
- Campaign on narrative that spoiled ballots lead to unobtainable result, mimick '20 fraud claims
- Organise protests, pressure secretaries of state & state legislators
- Push for delay of certification until state legislative selects Trump electors
/12
Phase 4: To the Court!
- If DEM challenge state selection of electors, escalate to SCOTUS ruling
- Potentially instigate a challenge to selection of electors to have SCOTUS rule in any case so VP Harris can't reject the electors
- Assumed: SCOTUS rules in favour of selection
/13
Phase 5: March the Mob
- No matter SCOTUS ruling activate radicalized followers, militias
- If favourable SCOTUS ruling keep narrative that "deep state" will still try to "steal" election till inauguration
- Once Trump inaugurated invoke riot act, enact project 2025 playbook
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Stealing Presidency '24 - Project 2025
While the hypothetical plot laid out before is constructed to represent a worst case scenario it matches the context of Heritage's project 2025 quite well. Heritage and Federalist Society have worked decades to prepare the groundwork.
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While the Federalist society shaped the judiciary, Heritage developed the executive concept of a radical turn. A whole network of players involved in these projects are now in important places, for example SCOTUS.
Project 2025 is no vision anymore, it has started it's engine.
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Stealing Presidency '24 - Current Status
Several aspects that match the hypothetical plot to steal the '24 election seem to be already in full swing.
As Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation says the "second American Revolution" is in progress.
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Stealing Presidency '24 - The Defense
It will be impossible to prevent organized spoiling of the ballots, the election is simply a too large operation. Most promising seems to attack a potential plot at the root - state level.
Many GOP state representatives are decent people.
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To foil most plots to overturn the '24 election via Supreme Court ruling addressing just few of the decent Republicans at state level is key. Many still love the constitution and hate to see the US thrown back to Gilead.
Voter mobilization & decisive DEM victory also matters.
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Stealing Presidency '24 - Stay On Topic
Yes, Biden is old and not perfect- but Democracy is at Risk. There are many secondary topics, many ways the pro democracy forces can fight with each other and end up paralyzing themselves.
Old story.
Keep focus, democracy is at risk.
20/20
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Coup Proofing in Russia?🧵
Replacing Shoigu with Belousov was widely interpreted as move to strengthen the mil/ind complex performance. That analysis ignored the main motivator informing Kremlin conduct: System survival.
What we see now is a decapitation of the MoD and Army. 1/
Under new Management?
Think of Russia as a mafia run company to facilitate embezzlement and money laundering. Turning around such structures is a herculean task even without the stress of a war, and an extraction focused economy under sanctions.
Belousov also is a Gosplan guy. 2/
The type of management Belousov can implement in reasonable time is centralization and squeezing companies. But Rostec is already centralized and preemptively puts up resistance. It's run by Chemezov as a cash cow for the mafia Don himself.
So why make Belousov Minister now? 3/
@nicolange_ Einordnung schwierig, viel passiert außerhalb des "Normals", aber ein Versuch.
Patrushevs Macht kam nicht aus seiner Position heraus sondern aus der Person selbst. Er war Gatekeeper zu Putin, extensive Vernetzung im Geheimdienststaat. Kardinal. Die Macht _kann_ er behalten.
1/
@nicolange_ Shoigu wird unterschätzt. Er war nicht "unfähig". Ihm wurde Kontrolle des kinetischen Apparates entzogen UND es werden seine Patronagesysteme im Militär demontiert. Ihm bleiben dennoch wichtige Netzwerke und Kontake nach China, riecht n bissl nach Coup-Proofing.
2/
@nicolange_ Es scheint zur Zeit, dass Shoigus Kontrolle über Siloviki eingegrenzt wird, seine Macht aus der neuen Position heraus alleine ist gering, aber seine Expertise wird erhalten und seine verbleibenden Netzwerke dürften Kreml loyal und kontrollierbar bleiben.
3/
Want allies? Then don't alienate them!
Recent events led to a wave of Poland-bashing from many pro-Ukrainian accounts. This increasingly goes beyond reasonable criticism, taking the form of sweeping statements, even hostility. 1/
We have an alliance supporting Ukraine. Unfortunately nothing is ever perfect, each country has their own political problems and struggles - including Ukraine. Some are firm allies, some prone to waiver.
But this is the only alliance we have and Russia is trying to destroy it.
2/
How does Russia try to destroy the pro Ukraine alliance?
By sowing dissent, amplifying doubts and issues up to the level of hostility. Works in our domestic politics and towards other allies. No shock or surprise there.
So, to be frank, why do many help Russia play this game?
3/
Wir müssen Macron beim Wort nehmen🧵
Gegen Russlands eskalierendes aggressives Verhalten hat es bisher vor Allem an Abschreckung gefehlt. Macrons Rede bietet die Chance wieder glaubwürdige Abschreckung herzustellen.
Durch Zweifel & Zerreden kann diese Chance verspielt werden. 1/
Macrons Vortrag stellt einen Wendepunkt dar. Eine zentrale europäische Macht verknüpft offen die Frage eigener und europäischer Sicherheit mit dem Sieg der Ukraine über Russland.
Russland wird klar als Gegner bezeichnet der Frankreich hybride angreift und dort Leben gefährdet.
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Der Sieg der Ukraine ist laut Macron essentiell für europäische Sicherheit. Es gibt per se keine roten Linien mehr, was nötig ist um Russland einzugrenzen und der Ukraine zum Sieg zu verhelfen wird gemacht.
In diesem Sinn soll auf jede weitere Aktion Russlands reagiert werden.
3/
AI & Drones? Why not use Nerds! 🧵
What seems like a "game" might become a new approach to employment of unmanned systems in the battlespace.
Instead of only using AI ,with all it's problems, future militaries might harness the power of distributed computing power:
The nerd. 1/
It isn't totally fair to compare AI with nerds (aka human intelligence). AI offers the capability to deploy deeply autonomous systems capable to operate with minimal (or without) EM signal emissions. Nerds can't do that.
So let's rethink augmented AI. 2/ digitalreality.ieee.org/images/files/p…
The rising military relevance of distributed human intelligence became obvious in Russia's war on Ukraine. While open source intelligence (OSINT) in general still comes with quality & reliability issues, projects like Oryx have demonstrated utility & strength of the approach. 3/
Spring is coming.
The state of Russia's war on Ukraine.🧵
After the fall of Avdiivka, RF pressure along the front and reports of AFU ammo shortages a climate of doubt about Ukrainian military capabilities is wide spread.
Some talk about 2024 being a year of defense ops only. 1/
Evaluating the situation regarding ground forces is difficult without deep knowledge about order of battle, reserves and materiel available this year.
Instead of inferring from estimates of losses there is a different indirect qualifier for RF ground force commitment.
The VKS.
2/
The VKS, and it's valuable, hard to replace assets, is perhaps as involved now as in the beginning of the invasion. It lost about a years production ('22) of Su-34 in two weeks.
With the Su-34 the losses center around air frames used for close air support of ground troops. 3/