Perhaps the most important poll you've never heard of came out today: the Pew NPORS study, a large mail survey with financial incentives and a 30% response rate. It's important enough that I had to open it when the email arrived.
pewresearch.org/methods/fact-s…
pewresearch.org/methods/fact-s…
The survey is important because it's used as a 'benchmark' -- its results are used as targets for weighting by other polls. Pew uses it to weight their usual surveys, and other polls (like CNN/SSRS, KFF, Ipsos) do too.
(We don't use it, but I do compare it to NYT/Siena data)
(We don't use it, but I do compare it to NYT/Siena data)
The headline: NPORS found leaned party identification at R+1. That's the first time NPORS gives the GOP a party ID edge. Last year, it was D+2.
That's significant in its own right, given the quality of the survey. But it will effect other polls -- like that Ipsos poll that recently showed Trump/Biden tied.
That's significant in its own right, given the quality of the survey. But it will effect other polls -- like that Ipsos poll that recently showed Trump/Biden tied.
By subgroup, the headline is age: NPORS found the GOP ahead on leaned party ID among 18 to 29 year olds, even though the sample was Biden+20 on 2020 recall vote. The sample size is fairly large (n=496) and it hasn't shown anything like this in previous cycles
There were fewer shifts by race, though the Dem share of major party leaning nonwhite voters kept edging downward, from 68 to 65%. They did show a GOP edge among registered nonvoters
The results overall and by subgroups RVs come very close to a compilation of the last five NYT/Siena polls, which add up to a similar n=5000 sample size. 
And no, they don't ask Biden v. Trump. It's sad for me, too
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