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Jul 9 1 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Quick thoughts on the Blast distribution:

1) First, the obvious: The stakes are a lot lower than before. The FDV of $BLAST is $1.5bn, well below Phase I hopes of $8bn+ FDV. There will be more gold supply and less $BLAST distributed. So each sweet piece of gold means a lot less, unless $BLAST does a 10x from here.

2) This is probably a good thing. Gold can act like credit card points: a nice dopamine incentive that enhances the economics, but isn't such a game-changer that the points/gold become the product.

3) New PLATINUM app. @wasabi_protocol was added as a 4th PLATINUM project. Love to see it, as they were SILVER just two distros ago.

4) 8 NEW projects split 500k gold. @GangsterArena (mobile game) and @sofamon_xyz (collectible Telegram stickers) were the top-rated amongst them, each receiving over 100k. New gamble app @megapot_io got 31k.

5) Prediction Markets. A new category "Prediction Markets" was given the highest rank. The only prediction market app is @supercharged_io - which got a BRONZE ranking. The Blast team is signaling an opportunity here.

6) Same ole PLATINUM. Fantasy, Thruster, Juice remain PLATINUM. But this time, Fantasy receives as much gold as Thruster, which until now had always been the lone top project.

7) Adios D1 and Blaze. @DistrictOneIO got a 0, down substantially from 377k gold last distro. Blaze was the other project to get zeroed, down from 25k.

8) Blur continues to be treated separately and is not included with the others. On a monthly basis, it is receiving 500,000 gold which would put it #10.

9) New Big Bang Upcoming in August. An additional untold amount of gold and cash funding will go towards it.

10) Winners vs the last distro: @ikbdotgg, @playcambria, Wasabi.

11) Losers vs last distro: D1, Blaze, SynFutures, Init.Image

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More from @punk9059

Jun 2, 2023
Wallet 8BC110 is #3 on the Blur leaderboard, earning nearly 3000 bid points per day. But he hasn't bought an NFT in 6 days.

How does he do it?

Massive bids that are more than 60 NFTs below the top. ImageImageImage
Because sellers can only sell 60 at once, his bot can remove the bids when he sees that someone sold.

Single blocks can only fit 180 sales as well, so even sales coordinated by a bot from many wallets wouldn't hit bids that are 181+ deep.
Another wallet CBBOFE is #2 and earns 4200 bid points per day and hasn't bought an NFT in 17 hours.

When looking at Blur, know that bids more than 180 deep (or 60 deep in most cases) very likely aren't real. Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 30, 2023
A 🧵 on one of the biggest farmers in the game.

Yesterday I said a pump & dump artist had bought 54 Doodles.

He's now up to 341 as other airdrop farmers dumped on him last night.

Of the 478 Doodles which have traded in the past 3 days, he owns 71% of them.

(1/7) Image
He has done the same thing on CloneX over the past few weeks, currently long 210 between many wallets.

As you can see, he's patient. He's had this CloneX position on for a while.

(2/7) Image
The strategy also involves massive bids on the projects he's long. He's currently bidding for 186 Doodles and 91 Clones near floor.

This earns him massive $BLUR and makes other bidders feel safe bidding. He needs other bidders so he can eventually exit.

(3/7) Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 22, 2023
One of the interesting things about collectibles and is that as price goes down, supply often increases & and demand often decreases.

The past week, we've seen new NFTs come for sale as prices fall. This chart looks at BAYC sales of NFTs that hadn't traded for 180 days. Image
The trend has been pretty similar on Azuki, even though prices have been more steady. People are taking advantage of market-maker liquidity. Image
We're not seeing the same spikes relative to the past on other projects, but still seeing a steady drip of new NFTs entering the pool which hadn't traded for 6 months or more. ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Apr 21, 2023
NFTs are momentum assets:

Nearly every project is more likely to go up today IF it went up yesterday.

Otherdeed, for example, has gone up 59% of the days when it went up the day before and only 32% of the days when it did not.

Chart below shows this is true across projects: Image
Magnitude is impacted too.

Otherdeed has on average gone UP 1.3% on days after up days, and DOWN 1.3% on days after down days.

Chart below shows it's true across collections. Image
The ONE collection I saw where this hasn't been true is Meebits!

Who knows why, but I think you've seen more value investors like @mb__nft who have bought Meebits when they're down as opposed to momentum chasing.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 17, 2023
'@k2_nft wrote a great thread on floor prices & sweeping:

The only way floors go up in the Blur era is when NFTs leave the hands of airdrop farmers and enter the hands of long-term holders.

In this era, that sweeping floors isn't as impactful as it once was. Why? 👇

1/4
Airdrop farmers don't list near floor, if they list at all.

They need to give the illusion of a thin floor, to lure in bidders at higher prices. So they list high or don't list.

Then they stealth dump when peeps get comfy w bids.

@k2_nft's suggestion? 👇

2/4
If you are a long-term holder and want to move the floor higher for a project, put in bids.

This is what takes the supply out of the hands of farmers and into your hands (and we all know you're a diamond hand anon right? right?).

Caveat 👇

3/4
Read 5 tweets
Mar 6, 2023
Some crazy charts on Cryptopunks & thoughts on this move to @blur_io:

1) Over the 18 months, there's never been a week where more than 10% of punk sales were off the Larva Labs site.

Already this week, 42% of sales are. Image
2) 96.8% of punks haven't sold once in 2023 this year, the lowest of major projects, by far.

But 18 punks traded for the first time in 2023 today. Image
3) Craziest stat: it's been 220+ days since the punk floor moved 10% in a week. The most ever for the project

For comparison, the BAYC floor has never gone 45 days without a 10% move over a week.

But....👇 Image
Read 9 tweets

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