Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Jul 10 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
In the past 24 hours we have seen again the brutality of the Putin regime, and the murderous band of barbarians called the Russian military. The deliberate attack by a Russian precision missile on the Okhmatdyt hospital, despite its horror, is part of a wider Russian campaign to terrorise the people of #Ukraine. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦Image
2/ This was not the action of a few bad apples. It is the outcome of a systemic, command-led campaign to terrorise and brutalise Ukrainians, just as the Russians did with Syrians and Chechens.
3/ Russian political and military leaders have nurtured a culture of indiscriminate killing in Ukraine and set the conditions for it to flourish. They bear full responsibility for the killings at Okhmatdyt hospital, Bucha and other atrocities across Ukraine in the past two and half years.
4/ The most important priority at the moment is that the West needs to change its ideas about the kind of war it is supporting in Ukraine. Too many nations, with the exception of the Baltics and Poland, act like they are undertaking a large-scale goodwill gesture for a distant, eastern European nation.
5/ While there has been a degree of generosity from many countries, the level of diplomatic, military and financial support is barely meeting the rhetoric of ‘defending Ukraine for as long as it takes.’ That strategy is failing.
6/ Trickle feeding support to Ukraine, as has been the case for the last 28 months, is not stopping the war. Importantly, it is not scaring Putin into stopping his aggression against Ukraine nor deterring his threats against other nations. Indeed, it is having the opposite impact.
7/ Putin sees that he can arbitrarily attack hospitals and shopping centres, torture POWs, rape and loot in occupied territories and conduct sabotage operations throughout Europe, with the West almost doing nothing in response.
8/ If we do not change course, embrace a strategy of defeating Russia in Ukraine and resourcing this effort accordingly, Russia will continue its almost endless stream of atrocities against Ukrainians. And eventually it will turn its eye upon other nations in Europe as well.
9/ There is a strategic imperative & moral obligation to assist #Ukraine to win this war as rapidly as possible. The deliberate Russian attack, using precision missiles against children at the Okhmatdyt hospital, provides us with more evidence for why this is so.
10/ Read my full article (for free) at Futura Doctrina.

(Thanks to @IAPonomarenko & @ZelenskyyUa for the images) mickryan.substack.com/p/the-kyiv-chi…
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More from @WarintheFuture

Jul 8
In the next 48 hours, NATO will hold its annual summit. This time it will be hosted by the U.S. in Washington DC. There will be a range of topics discussed, including the war in #Ukraine. But, China's role in supporting Russia may also be a subject of some discussion. 1/11 🧵 Image
2/In June, the U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO described how “China has taken a side; China has opted to support Russia through the provision of these dual-use components; and that if it opted to stop doing that, we believe it would have a major impact on Russia’s ability to conduct the war on the ground inside Ukraine.”
3/ But how does China benefit from supporting Russia, and indeed, benefit from a continuation of the war? I think there are three key areas where it does so: strategic, economic and ideological.
Read 11 tweets
Jul 2
Back in May, I explored the likely Russian objectives for its military operations in 2024, and how it was progressing towards them. Russia has built strategic momentum with its assaults on Ukraine in the past six months. However, they have largely failed to exploit their opportunties. 1/12 🧵 🇺🇦Image
2/ Russia has made some progress on the ground and yet even this has come at massive costs. For the gain of around 513 square km, they have lost around 180 thousand personnel. Losing 360 people for every km is a poor return on investment - in any war.
3/ And, as this graph from @ragnarbjartur shows, Russian casualties have only increased in the past six months during its 2024 offensives. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jun 26
There are many aspects of the war in #Ukraine from which we might learn lessons. Strategy, tactics, equipment, technology and organisations are all worthy of study. But there is another aspect of the war also requiring study: #leadership. 1/7 🧵 🇺🇦 Image
2/ In studying these lessons, we should understand the elements of leadership that are changing because of new technologies and different threats. Clausewitz called this the changing character of war.
3/ At the same time we need to learn - or re-learn - the timeless lessons of leadership in war. Generally this involves the uncertainty, the fog and friction of war. Clausewitz described this element of war as its enduring nature. People need to be led in this environment.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 21
There are many lessons from the war in #Ukraine. But to be most useful, these lessons need to be considered through the context of different regions and political environments beyond eastern Europe. 1/7 🧵🇺🇦 Image
2/ Sir Michael Howard wrote in The Use and Abuse of Military History, "without some such knowledge of the broader background to military operations one is likely to reach totally erroneous conclusions about their nature, and the reasons for their failure and success." Context matters.
3/ As such, I am starting a new series to translate the lessons from #Ukraine for application in the #Pacific. The method I will use in this study includes consideration of three key elements.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 19
For a little while now I have wanted to write about the Russian turtle tanks. These weird and unwieldy beasts provide a discrete solution to a contemporary battlefield problem - generating successful offensive operations. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦🇺🇦 Image
2/ On the weekend, the Ukrainian ground forces were able to capture one of these Russian turtle tanks. It will be a useful source of intelligence, particularly the EW suite that it is equipped with. But it will also provide insights into weaknesses that can be attacked with FPV.
3/ These turtle tanks have already appeared in several 'generations': Gen 1: tank with metal tortise shell; Gen 2: tank with metal tortise shell and EW suite; and, Gen 3: tank with metal tortise shell, EW suite, additional cages and mine roller.
Read 10 tweets
Jun 14
In the past 48 hours, the U.S. and Ukraine signed a new security agreement on the sidelines of the G7 meeting being held in Italy. What is the nature of the new agreement between Ukraine and the U.S. and what are the potential implications over the next decade? 1/9 🧵 🇺🇦 Image
2/ There are four key elements of the agreement.
3/ First, the agreement sets out a ten-year horizon. But, the deal won’t be ratified by the US Congress. And hopefully, Ukraine will be in NATO well before the ten year period ends.
Read 9 tweets

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