For the skeptics, describe the rising 9th U.S. COVID wave as a *possible* wave that could make millions sick.
Assume co-workers will be working sick or out sick, many people with new "allergies" and "summer colds," camp closures, delays in auto repairs, sickness after medical and dental visits, flight delays, fender benders, longer wait times, covering other people's work obligations, missed deadlines, errors and mistakes, sick politicians, increased geopolitical instability, angry outbursts, athletes dropping out of the Olympics and other sporting events, music concert cancelations, nonsensical email, more poorly managed weather events, last minute cancellations, brief small business closures, more conversation about specialty medical appointments, reliving conversations that have already happened but the person forgot, and more co-workers retiring early.
Encourage practical steps. Free masks and rapid tests for employees and family. Focus on mask quality (N95+) and achieving an excellent fit. Use FlowFlex and other high-validity tests. Buy HEPA, build DIY air purifiers, open windows, flick the HVAC from 'auto' to 'on,' move events outdoors, and go remote. Submit work well before deadlines. Buy optional insurance typically declined. Increase the "safety stock" of critical items that could be briefly delayed shipping. Plan for key contingencies. Assume delays. Add redundancies.
By focusing on the cold, cognitive practical and short-term impacts, you'll reduce the likelihood of triggering a defensive, avoidant reaction. Many people will put two-and-two together and realize THEY could be the person out sick.
1 in 66 Americans are infectious with COVID right now, as are 1 in 73 Canadians. It will get much worse in mid August.
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During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.
PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17
🧵1/
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.
This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.
We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/
Based on today's CDC & Biobot data, we estimate the following for the week of Jan 19:
🔸1 in 52 people in the U.S. actively infectious
🔸25% chance of exposure in a room of 15 ppl
🔸Nearly 1 million new daily infections
🔸5 cumulative infections per person all-time (avg)
🧵1/5
Transmission estimates have been marginally corrected upward.
11 states have Very High COVlD levels:
🔸PA: 1 in 25 estimated actively infectious
🔸MI: 1 in 23
🔸OH & KY: 1 in 22
🔸SD: 1 in 20
🔸NE & IA: 1 in 18
🔸IL & ME: 1 in 17
🔸IN: 1 in 16
🔸WV: 1 in 11
🧵2/5
We're in the middle of a 12th COVlD wave.
The peak has likely passed, but with students headed back to school, transmission is expected to remain high for at least the next several weeks.
The size of the winter COVlD wave has been revised upward as post-holiday data come in.
We estimated 1 in 55 people in the U.S. are actively infectious.
🔥WV: 1 in 14
🔥IN: 1 in 15
🔥MI & OH: 1 in 21
🔥MO: 1 in 22
🔥CT: 1 in 24
🔥KS: 1 in 25
🔥MA & IL: 1 in 27
Quick 🧵 1/4
Nationally, we are seeing an estimated 892,000 new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections, meaning a 1 in 4 chance of exposure in a room of 15 people. Risk varies considerably by state.
We are approaching an average of 5 infections per person since pandemic onset.
🧵 2/4
We are in the 12th COVlD wave of the U.S.
Current transmission is higher than 68% of all days since the pandemic onset in 2020.
🧵 3/4
You might not have heard, but the northeastern U.S. is in a COVlD surge.
We use wastewater levels to derive estimates of the proportion of people actively infectious in each state (prevalence), e.g., 1 in 24 people in Connecticut.
We told you that 109,000-175,000 Americans would died of COVID (excess deaths) in 2025.
Today, the CDC estimates 101,000 deaths/year (flat from Oct 2022 to Sep 2024), and likely higher when considering more nebulous non-acute excess deaths (heart attack 6 months later). 1/5
The CDC estimates are actually higher than I would have guessed, given their methodology, which models estimates based on easily countable factors in healthcare and expert input on multiplier values. It lends credence to the PMC upper bound of excess deaths of 175,000/yr.
2/5
What's troubling is the CDC has annual mortality flat. My expectation based on mortality displacement and Swiss Re data is that it should be declining. If is stays flat, we're running on something like breast+prostate cancer or lung cancer deaths per year in perpetuity.
3/5