Thread by @HighMarsed

1/ If you are interested in how the Russian tank fleet might look over the coming years here are some of my predictions for what will likely happen, if the war continues at the same intensity. ⬇️

2/ First of all here are the numbers of tanks of each type removed from storage, which will be relevant for this thread. Keep in mind that there are a lot of uncertainties with these numbers and this is only the storage visible on satelite images.

3/ Additionally I will assume that number of tanks at the front is constant and the share of losses for each type accurately reflects the share of the tank type among the active tank fleet. Both of these assumptions are probably not true.

4/ To show some trends for the usage of each tank type I have asked @whitherapathy , who makes great graphs from the data recorded by Oryx, to make me some custom graphs showing the share of destoyed/captured for each tank type among all losses.

5/ (T-54/55) Starting of with the oldest tanks. Russia has not removed many T-55s from storage. At first I though they would only remove some that were already in good condition (maybe for export), but they have removed additional tanks since we first saw them on a train.

6/ (T-54/55) They likely have about 100 of them active and looking at the graph the type has been relatively rare among the losses (less than 4%). In my opinion this likely wont change in the future and they will probably continue to slowly take some tanks from storage.

7/ (T-62) The T-62 has been prevalent among the losses in late 2022 when Russia left some of them behind while retreating from Kherson, but recently they have consistently been lost in bigger numbers. My guess for active tanks of this type would be 300-500.

8/ (T-62) Russia seems to have built a significant cpacity to refurbish this type (mainy at the 103rd BTRZ). In my opinion it is likely that we will see more T-62s in the future and they will probably be one of the main tank types in the Russian army.

9/ (T-62) There are still a lot of T-62 hulls remaining in storage, but they have "only" removed 125 of them over the last year, which would suggest a reactivation rate of 10 per month, but the rate could also be higher because of a backlog of tanks at the BTRZs.

10/ (T-64) Russia has not removed many T-64s from storage and none over the last year. As far as I know they are only operated by former DPR units and unless they start removing additional tanks from storage they will likely become increasinngly rare on the front.

11/ (T-72A/Ural) These older T-72 types have been relatively consistenly making a low single digit percentage of the losses and so far only about 100 of them have been removed from visible storage. This suggests that they havent build much capacity to refurbish them.

12/ (T-72A/Ural) Another indication for this is that we havent yet seen any upgraded version (f.x. T-72AV Obr.2022) The reason for this could be that they had enough T-72B/T-80B(V) so far to replace a sufficient part of their modern tank losses.

13/ (T-72A/Ural) I expect that at some point they will have to create an upgrade program for these tanks, which should be a sign that there arent many T-72B, T-80B/BV left in storage. The only alternative would be to compensate the losses with only T-62s and T-90M production.

14/ (T-72A/Ural) If there is another reason for why they havent removed many of the older T-72s, such as problems with spare parts, bad condition or cannibalization that would mean that ~1000 of the stored tanks only have limited usability.

15/ (T-72B) This category includes the T-72B and all of its modifications and upgraded variants, while the only variants in storage were the T-72B and T-72B Obr. 1989. As you can see these tanks have made up a large portion of the losses and have declined a lot since 2022.

16/ (T-72B) All the remaining T-72B in storage are likely at the 1311th which is about 115km from Nizhny Tagil where UVZ is located, the main factory for upgrading the T-72B. In the future I expect to see more upgraded variants but the whole category will likely shrink further.

17/ (T-80B/BV) I have recently written a thread about this type which you can find here. In short: there are not many left in storage which are likely being held back for upgrades and their loss rate should slowly decline over time.

https://x.com/HighMarsed/status/1807713450329534801

18/ (T-80U/UD) The active T-80U fleet took heavy losses at the start of the war and since then only few losses have been visually confirmed. There were only very few T-80U in storage and I think they have all been removed, likely to keep the remaining active tanks going.

19/ (T-80U/UD) It is still possible that the T-80U will become more numerous on the front again. Russia has removed about 120 T-80UD from the 22nd storage base and it is so far unclear what has happened to them, but it might be possible to convert them.

20/ (T-80BVM) The relative frequency of this type hasnt has been relatively stable around 6-7% and I dont expect that to change, since Russia is likely holding some T-80 back to be upgraded and unless the stored T-80s run out there wont be much change.

21/ (T-90A/AK/S) The non M variants of the T-90 have pnly made up a small portion of the losses over the course of the war. Since these are not in production I expect the types to get more rare and then disappear completely at some point.

22/ (T-90M) Predicting any changes for the T-90M is hard because there is no way to get reliable data on production. Here is an article from the IISS suggesting a production rate of more than 90 for 2025 with an "newly built" to "upgraded" ratio of 1:3.
iiss.org/online-analysi…

23/ (T-90M) Even without accurate numbers I still think it is likely that we will see more T-90M in the future as the numbers of T-80s and T-72Bs decrease.

24/ In conclusion it is likely that Russia will rely increasingly on T-62s and T-90Ms as the number of T-80s slowly declines over time. Additionally the number of T-72 will likely also continue to decrease unless an upgrade/refurbishment program is started for older T-72s.

25/ This analysis shouldnt be taken as definitive, since it is mostly based on my perceptions of the content we see from the front and what can be seen in satelite images from the storage bases. Some additional info about storage below.

https://x.com/HighMarsed/status/1809641392232075743