Clément Molin Profile picture
Jul 11, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Ukrainian 🇺🇦 fortress facing russian 🇷🇺 offensive

Since january 2024, Ukraine began improving existing defensive lines and digging new ones to prepare for russian attacks.

Maps and images of those defenses :

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ Image
With @Playfra0, we are mapping these defensive fortifications.

What have we observed ? New fortifications everywhere, improving of old defensive lines, from 2014, 2022 or even 2023.

Here is the line south of Zaporizhia city. Image
Here is an example for Orikhiv, which we renamed "fort Orikhiv".

This is just north of that strategic town in Zaporizhia oblast. You can see some dots which are russian airstrikes. Image
Here is a clear view of this city which is a road and rail hub. The terrain south of the city is mainly mined.

The new defensive line is mainly north and west of the city, since it's too dangerous to dig near the frontline. Image
Here is Zaporizhia city istself with its main defensive lines south and some trenches dug in 2022 east, north and west. Image
In the Donbass, we have now a few fortress, including Kourakhove.
This little industrial city is located est of Donetsk city. With defenses facing every direction, the city will be the next stop after Vouhledar and Krasnohorivka. Image
Here is what playfra mapped around Pokrovsk. You can see a few defensive lines running around that city. Image
Looking east, here is how it looks. On the right you'll recognize Kourakhove, near the big green part, you have the best defenses in front of Pokrovsk. On the left you'll see the valley from Kostiantynivka to Sloviansk. Image
The main defensive effort is concentrated in eastern Ukraine.
On this image you can find the view from Zaporizhia-Dnipro and Kharkiv. This is north eastern, eastern and southern ukraine. Image
And yes, we have the same view for north-eastern Ukraine.
There is now a continuous line from Yampil (northern Sumy oblast) to Kupiansk (eastern Kharkiv oblast).

Sumy and Kharkiv have mainly turned into fortress while the line is also being dug north of Tchernihiv. Image
While Belarus 🇧🇾 is conducting joint exercices with China 🇨🇳, Ukraine 🇺🇦 is boosting its defenses near the border.
Here is north of Chornobyl, in the exclusion zone where we can see new trenches and anti-tank ditches. Image
These last months, we witnessed new defenses on all the main roads going to Belarus. This is the case for this one going from Rivne to Stoline (Belarus). Image
Finally, we couln't forget the southern and south-western direction. On the right is Transnistria a pro-russian separatist state.
And you'll see the black sea - dniepr defensive line from Odesa to Krivi Rih. Image
There are many, many other places to look at, to zoom in and to analyse.
For the ones wondering if this could help Russia, here is my response :
Russian drones are flying to Poltava and Dnipro to look at airbases, of course they can see the fortifications... Image
For the ones wondering about the incomplete fortifications. This happened near Kharkiv, the only place where they didn't bothered to reinforce their defenses.

Also, the main things you need in those trenches is men.
(example with K2 defending a trench).
A good example is the faith of the current Pokrovsk defensive line. without a continuous line, you can't hold, and you need to have men everywhere.

Also, these fortifications are only temporary defensive before stepping back to one to another line. (image example). Image
Since more than a year I'm mapping russian and ukrainian defenses around the frontline.

This work allows geolocations, analysis and precise maps.
You can follow my account @clement_molin and also @atummundi

17/17

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More from @clement_molin

Feb 17
Le chiffre de 200km2 repris par l'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 circule, provenant de l'ISW et relayé par l'AFP.

⚠️Pourtant, ce chiffre est probablement exagéré et et manque de précisions. L'ISW est connu pour ses imprécisions, reprises par l'AFP et d'autres.

🧵THREAD🧵1/9 ⬇️ Image
En janvier dernier, alors que nous avions décelé une baisse de la progression russe (données de @Pouletvolant3), l'AFP titrait le contraire : parlant d'une augmentation x2 de la progression russe. Image
Image
En réalité, cette confiance aveugle dans l'ISW, sans vérification directe a joué un tour à l'AFP.

Le mois de janvier n'avait pas vu une augmentation x2 de la progression russe, à moins que l'on ne considère la vidéo d'un soldat russe, seul, avec un drapeau (mort ou vivant) comme une preuve suffisante de contrôle.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 16
L'Ethiopie 🇪🇹 se rapproche de plus en plus de la guerre civile généralisée

La mobilisation massive de l'armée éthiopienne dans le nord, son retrait de larges zones de l'Amhara⚫️, vers le Tigré 🟡 et les tensions frontalières font craindre un conflit majeur.

🧵THREAD🧵1/24⬇️ Image
L'Ethiopie, 2ème pays le plus peuplé d'Afrique est très régulièrement surnommée la "Yougoslavie d'Afrique", car elle est en réalité une fédération ethnique.

La lutte de pouvoir qui opposent ces ethnies provoque des conflits meurtriers. Image
Ces dernières semaines et en particulier ces derniers jours, l'armée éthiopienne (ENDF) a déplacé des dizaines de milliers d'hommes vers le nord du pays.

La région visée, le Tigré était déjà au cœur d'un conflit meurtrier entre 2020 et 2022 qui avait fait 600 000 morts.
Read 24 tweets
Feb 15
Each day that passes gives Ukraine 🇺🇦 more time to prepare new fortifications that will ultimately slow down russian 🇷🇺 offensives.

The recent russian setbacks allowed Ukraine to largely reinforce its fortification strategy.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ Image
Ukrainian fortifications are improving. The main defensive lines (yellow) are meant to protect Ukraine's rear.

Between these main lines, we can find multiple smaller ditches lines are barbed wire lines. This strategy is cutting the frontline : Image
We now have multiple squares and rectangles between main and secondary lines.

The frontline is literraly cut in pieces, the black ones are the finished/expected ones and the grey the larger ones, behind, that will be later cut in between. Image
Read 16 tweets
Feb 14
Contre-attaque victorieuse pour l'Ukraine 🇺🇦

Après plusieurs semaines de contre-attaques, l'armée ukrainienne a repris le contrôle de larges territoires disputés dont ~12 villages dans l'est de l'oblast de Zaporizhia.

L'armée russe 🇷🇺 a été repoussée.

🧵THREAD🧵1/18 ⬇️Image
Profitant de la suspension de Starling à l'armée russe (qui permettait de faire voler les drones russes et de communiquer) et de Telegram, l'armée ukrainienne a lancé une série de contre-attaques locales dans le secteur de Ternuvate et Pokrovsk'e, à l'est de Zaporizhia. Image
Les ukrainiens ont utilisé d'importants moyens mécanisés, une première depuis plusieurs mois, profitant notamment des mauvaises conditions météorologiques et de la suspension de Starlink qui empêchent les drones de voler.

Ces assauts ont eu lieu à l'ouest du côté de Ternuvate. Image
Read 21 tweets
Feb 12
I now managed to map 24 000 russian 🇷🇺 and ukrainian 🇺🇦 artillery strikes from the Dnipro to the russian border.

With this map, I'll show you exactly where Russia is putting its biggest offensive efforts and where Ukraine is counter-attacking.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️Image
With 12k artillery (and airstrikes) found last week, I now added 12k more, including 8k more in the same area as last week (Dnipro to Kostiantynivka).

This work is entirely volunteer and free, I mapped those 24 000 dots by myself.

You can support here : buymeacoffee.com/clement.molinImage
Most of the artillery strikes impacts are concentrated in 4 main areas :

-Hulialpole/Pokrovsk'e : 8 000 !
-Pokrovsk/Dobropilla : 7 000 !
-Siversk : 1 200
-Kupiansk : 1 200 Image
Read 20 tweets
Feb 10
Did Ukraine 🇺🇦 launch a counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia oblast ?

Multiple accounts reported about this, but it is not really the truth.

Most of ukrainian progress happened in the grey zone, taking back villages which Russia 🇷🇺 was not controling.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️Image
The main question is where is the frontline. I already talked about it twice recently, especially with this analysis of shell impacts.

Take a close look on the Ternuvate direction, you can see barely no artillery/air strikes

Image
On these maps from @M0nstas, you can see the big difference on the definition of frontline from a pro-russian source and a pro-ukrainian source. Image
Image
Read 12 tweets

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