Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jul 11, 2024 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Current situation:

- 4 Chinese warships crossed into the U.S. EEZ near Alaska
- PLA & Russian Navies conducting joint drills in WESTPAC
- Record-breaking military activity around Taiwan
- Surging ships into the South China Sea
- Shandong carrier group underway

A lot going on 🧵 Image
USCG: The crew of U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball (WMSL 756) detected 3 Chinese vessels ~124 miles north of the Amchitka Pass in the Aleutian Islands, & an HC-130J aircrew from U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Kodiak detected an additional vessel ~84 miles north of the Amukta Pass.

All four of the People’s Republic of China vessels were transiting in international waters but still inside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone, which extends 200 nautical miles from the U.S. shoreline.Image
The USCG did not confirm the composition of the Chinese surface action group, but it’s likely made up of ships I included below from Eastern Theater Command.

Note: In September 2021 & 2022, USCG cutters deployed in the Bering Sea also encountered PLA Navy surface action groups.
“The Chinese naval presence operated in accordance with international rules and norms,” said Rear Adm. Megan Dean, Seventeenth Coast Guard District commander. “We met presence with presence to ensure there were no disruptions to U.S. interests in the maritime environment around Alaska.”

The Chinese vessels responded to U.S. Coast Guard radio communication and their stated purpose was “freedom of navigation operations.”
Yesterday, China sent 56 PLA aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense zone (ADIZ) — the most ever tracked by the MND in a single day.
USNI: The Russian Navy and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy began their annual joint patrol on Thursday with Japan’s Joint Staff Office (JSO) reporting the combined flotilla is now in the Pacific Ocean after transiting Japan’s Osumi Strait from Thursday to Friday.

Corvette RFS Sovershenny (333) rendezvoused with PLAN destroyer CNS Yinchuan (175), frigate CNS Hengshui (572) and fleet oiler CNS Weishanhu (887) in the Korea Strait near Jeju Island to begin the fourth joint Russian-Chinese maritime patrol in the Asia-Pacific region, reads a Thursday statement from the Russian Pacific Fleet.

“The objectives of the joint patrol are to strengthen naval cooperation between Russia and China, maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, monitor the maritime area and protect maritime economic facilities of the Russian Federation and China.” reads the release. The Russians did not specify where the group would operate.
The PLA Navy Shandong carrier strike group has been operating in the Western Pacific since 9 July. The first WESTPAC deployment of 2024 coincides with the recent surge of military activity around Taiwan & in the South China Sea.
All four PLAN Type 055 destroyers/cruisers — China’s premier surface combatant — assigned to Southern Theater Command were recently deployed in the South China Sea.

The three PLAN Type 075 LHDs — their largest & most advanced amphibious warship — are underway in the SCS + ECS.
Yesterday, two Russian Steregushchiy-class Corvettes sailed southwest in the waters between Yonaguni Island (Okinawa Pref) & Iriomote Island — near Taiwan — & entered the Western Pacific.
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Taiwan said on Thursday that it was closely watching the Chinese military, which it said posed a rising threat to the region, after a flurry of warplanes passed near the island to join drills with China’s Shandong aircraft carrier in the Pacific. (Reuters)

The Shandong passed close to the Philippines on its way to the Pacific exercises, Taiwan’s defence minister said.

“The military has a detailed grasp of the activities in the seas and waters around the Taiwan Strait, including of the Chinese aircraft and ships,” ministry spokesperson Sun Li-fang said.

Speaking to military officers in Taipei, President Lai Ching-te said he will continue to strengthen the island’s defenses.

“The Chinese threat to regional stability continues to rise, and its grey zone intrusions into the Taiwan Strait and surrounding areas are also increasing day by day, which are a common challenge to global democracy.”
A curious alert just posted by Taiwan’s defense ministry:

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More from @ianellisjones

Jun 22
🚨 U.S. conducts massive precision strikes "obliterating" key Iranian nuclear facilities

- USAF B-2 bombers dropped at least 6x GBU-57 MOP bombs on Fordo
- U.S. Navy guided-missile sub USS Georgia (SSGN 729) fired 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan

What we know: Image
Source: @EricSchmittNYT Image
Update: One B-2 also dropped two bunker busters on Natanz, according to the U.S. official @EricSchmittNYT Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 8
PLA Navy in 2025: More warships, farther than ever before

• 1,350+ Chinese vessels near Taiwan (+26%)
• Liaoning’s longest deployment ever, deep into WESTPAC
• First circumnavigation of Australia
• 20+ joint combat readiness patrols

These deployments demonstrate Beijing's blue water ambitions and the capability to project power outside the first and second island chains, sending a clear message to not only the U.S. and Taiwan but also Australia, Japan, and the Philippines.Image
The Chinese PLA has deployed four big deck warships - two aircraft carriers and two amphibious assault ships - over the last month.

The U.S. Navy is also active in the region:
The Liaoning carrier task group is operating deep in the Western Pacific, more than 2,000 miles (3,200km) from its homeport at Yuchi Naval Base. This represents the PLA's longest carrier deployment on record and the first time deploying beyond the second island chain.
Read 5 tweets
May 2
🚨 China dispatched 546* PLA aircraft around Taiwan in April, the highest monthly total of 2025 & most since August

Nearly 1,800 PLA aircraft have been detected operating nearby year-to-date (+48% yoy), with 1,200+ crossing into Taiwan's ADIZ (+184%)

New heatmap with @OSINTNW: Image
Year-to-date, PLA incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in 2025 continue to run significantly higher than 2023 and 2024. Image
China wasn't fooling around on 1 April when they announced exercise Strait Thunder 2025A, taking advantage of favorable weather conditions to "close in on Taiwan from multiple directions" and execute one of the PLA's largest blockade drills to date. 135 PLA planes were detected over 2 days.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
American strategic bomber fleet out in full force 🇺🇸

• 4x USAF B-1B Lancer bombers deployed to Japan in support of first Bomber Task Force mission, marking a historic visit

• 6x B-2 Spirit stealth bombers forward deployed to Diego Garcia continue strike ops against the Houthi Image
More info on the B-2 bomber deployment:
A Bomber Task Force (BTF) deployment of USAF B-1B Lancer aircraft, Airmen and support equipment from the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, arrived at Misawa Air Base, Japan, on 15 April. (PACAF) Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 12
New @jointstaffpa map shows the flight paths of Chinese (red) + Russian (yellow) military aircraft operating near Japan, Taiwan, + South Korea in the past year.

Japan scrambled 704 times in response, with two-thirds (464) due to Chinese aircraft. 3x as many PLA drones detected. Image
704 scrambles in FY2024 (1 April to 31 March) is a modest 5% (+35) increase over the prior period. Image
More detail on location and type of aircraft: Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
During exercise Strait Thunder-2025A, the Chinese PLA released several maps and visuals of Taiwan, some marked with target icons and depicting key locations burning and under attack.

Quick compilation (and more info below):
Here’s everything that happened (as it was happening):
Read 4 tweets

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