My thoughts on my way back to Lithuania after the NATO Summit.🧵 
The event was well organised and sent a strong message to the people of America about the respect the USA is attracting from its allies and partners.🧵
Politically the expectations for deliverables from the Summit were low. It was clear a couple of months ago how the declaration would look. If the goal was to have a smooth event, that was achieved. What didn’t happen was any major strategic breakthrough.
Putin used this summit to declare that his goals, methods and capabilities are unchanged – by attacking a number of extremely sensitive civilian targets in Ukraine. His timing shows he has a feeling of total impunity, that nothing can or will happen in response.
Ukraine is still left in a grey area of insecurity. Irreversible bridges are important but not as important as actual protection. Sooner, not later, there has to be a discussion about solid and sturdy guarantees for Ukraine if we want to secure Europe's future.
The biggest missed opportunity was the decision not to allow deeper strikes against military targets in Russia. This would have been a major win not just for Ukraine, not just for the US, but for the whole alliance. It didn't require logistics or money, just a political decision.
The most significant decision for Europe is the acknowledgment that Russia is stepping up its irregular warfare and a reminder that even irregular attacks could trigger Article 5. This creates some strategic ambiguity to replace the clarity of passivity.
It feels like we are still in denial that this war against Ukraine is a global strategic shift requiring some hard strategic decisions in response, despite Putin trying very hard to convince us.
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