Fabian Hoffmann Profile picture
Jul 15 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
When people claim medium-range missiles in Germany are destabilizing because they can reach homeland targets deep inside Russia, including Moscow, ask how often they’ve complained about short-range ballistic and land-attack cruise missiles stationed in Kaliningrad.

1/5 Image
For over a decade, Russia has been threatening European capitals and homeland targets with its Iskander-M ballistic and cruise missile systems, both nuclear & conventionally armed, from Kaliningrad.

Russia has also frequently hinted at using them in first-strike scenarios.

2/5
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But now that NATO deploys exclusively conventional missile systems, capable of threatening military targets deep inside Russia, escalation risks will suddenly spiral?

Why? NATO only reciprocates the threat that Russia has imposed on Germany and others for years.

3/5
If Russia wants to return to the negotiating table and discuss an end to INF-range missiles in Europe, I'm happy to sit down.

But short-range ballistic and land-attack cruise missiles in Kaliningrad (and Belarus) will be on the chopping block too.



4/5fas.org/publication/be…
What we cannot do is return to a state of asymmetric vulnerability, where European capitals and homeland targets are minutes away from a Russian missile strike, while Europe lacks the means to respond in kind.

If Russia wants to arms race over this, so be it.

5/5

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More from @FRHoffmann1

Jul 16
Six months ago I wrote a viral thread, arguing that NATO has 2-3 years to prepare for Russia challenging NATO Art 5.

I wanted to revisit the topic for a while. In light of @JDVance1's pick as VP, today seems as good as any.

TLDR: panic should set in. 1/15 Image
But first recap, why 2-3 years?

Russia's primary objective in attacking NATO territory would not be to take & hold land - at least initially.

Russia would want to challenge Art. 5 to destroy NATO as a relevant military-political entity, giving it free rain in the future.

2/15
How might 🇷🇺 achieve this?

By initiating small-scale incursions into Eastern Europe, followed by rapid escalation against Western European states to increase the costs of resistance, and coerce them into seeking a settlement.

If Western Europeans falter, NATO is finished.

3/15
Read 16 tweets
Jul 13
The lack of a public debate on the deployment of INF-range missiles in 🇩🇪 has been criticized.

But such a debate would have been counterproductive. Why?

1) It would have been more damaging than helpful
2) It would have undermined our credibility
3) There was no need for it

1/9 Image
Most importantly, I disagree with the notion that this debate would have been some kind of enlightened discourse on the relative benefits of deterrence, reassurance and arms control.

The opposite: It would have been ugly and damaging to our democratic system and reputation.

2/9
The far left and far right would have hammered home the point that this is another instance of NATO provoking and threatening Russia.

Russian agents would have capitalized on the controversy to further divide our society and undermine support for NATO and Ukraine.

3/9
Read 9 tweets
Jul 11
I saw a few takes today on why deploying INF-range missiles to Europe/Germany might strategically backfire, and that the timing of the decision was overhasty.

I want to present the counter-narrative: this move is strategically sound and the timing is appropriate. 1/8 Image
1. INF-range missiles in Europe will offer NATO substantial military advantages and strengthen our deterrence posture.

To fight wars effectively, you have to be able to threaten the adversary's rear, including time-sensitive targets. 2/8
The missile systems deployed to Germany will provide for both. This will facilitate NATO's stated objective of forward defense and complicate Russian planning efforts both for invasion type and escalation management scenarios. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
May 11
What happens if Russia employs a nuclear weapon? The reality is that no one really knows.

However, what is equally true is that NATO is prepared for this type of scenario, and we have capabilities and contingency plans in place.

Some thoughts on what this might entail. 👇🧵 1/7 Image
How exactly NATO's response would look like depends on a range of factors, most notably warhead yield, location, casualties, etc.

Importantly, we have non-nuclear options to respond to Russian nuclear use, meaning we don't necessarily have to match 🇷🇺's nuclear escalation. 2/7
For example, a retaliatory mass cruise missile strike led by the US can arguably inflict as much damage as deploying a low-yield nuclear warhead.

This is crucial as it potentially offers a more credible deterrent, helps manage escalation risks, and fosters alliance cohesion. 3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 28
Some thoughts on the "national security interests" argument, which has recently emerged as a second key point in the discussion about why 🇩🇪 is unable to supply Taurus to 🇺🇦.

I believe the argument lacks coherence but will ultimately be effective in concluding the debate. 1/19 Image
Most notably, the national security argument against Taurus has been advanced by the Minister of Defense.

In a recent interview, he stated, "There are aspects that are so crucial to national security that we cannot discuss them publicly." 2/19

While the Minister and other senior officials have not provided details on these national security interests and how they arise, they more than likely relate to the role of the Taurus cruise missile in German military strategy and its implications in wartime. 3/19
Read 20 tweets
Apr 27
This is another thread on the M48 & M57 ATACMS capability profile and why it is needed. It consolidates information from previous threads, corrects past mistakes, and provides a more robust analysis. And yes, the thread also talks about ATACMS' bridge-busting capability.👇🧵 1/21 Image
The M48 and M57 ATACMS carry the 227kg WDU-18/B unitary warhead. This warhead includes 98 kg of DESTEX high explosives. With this data, we can determine the lethal radius (LR) for various structures based on target hardness and the required overpressure for destruction. 2/21 Image
Most above-ground structures will crumble or collapse under an overpressure of 20 pounds per square inch (psi) caused by a high explosive detonation. The capacity to generate such overpressures is largely a function of the warhead's yield and its distance to the target. 3/21 Image
Read 21 tweets

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