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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Jul 17 • 21 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
It's nice to someone at the Economist finally got around to reading Nadin Brzezinski's July 17, 2022 article "Logistics Collapse" about the lack of Russian artillery barrel specialty steel

The death of the Russian God of War🧵
1/
 nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-coll…

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...or low production capability with that subpar steel.

That we are seeing Russian artillery tube mass burn out now was absolutely predictable years ago.

I was talking about it being a limiting factor in the summer of 2022.

2/
It was utterly simple beer math that Western Logistical Intelligence seems to have missed, just like it missed the lack of Russian artillery shell pallets & truck bed D-rings.

This is stuff so simple that a retired DCMA quality guy can do it.
3/
Beer math is also why I figured out the what was going on with Russian truck refueling in the 64km column north of Kyiv.

The Russian column to Kyiv stalling out for a lack of fuel is another example of the failure of Western Logistical Intelligence.

4/
I shouldn't be too hard on the USSS protecting Trump level of Western logistical intelligence dysfunction in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

The senior Western intel guys are catering to both "Escalation Management™️" and "Russia Strong™️" types at the NSC & DoD.

5/
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Mentioning the Chechen Wars' wearing out most Russian gun tubes was and is a bad career move.

As the Cold War intelligence grey beards found out after 9/11/2001.

When CIA Director & later DoD Sec. Gates purged the US National Security space...

6/ Image
...of Soviet/Russian subject matter experts as "excess to needs."

The YouTube content creator Perun put out a piece about the Russian "God of War's" that in part addressed it's effective full charge (EFC) barrel life feet of clay in summer 2022.

7/
According to Perun, older Soviet guns vary from 1000 to 1,500 EFC for their lifetime.

How many EFC Russian frontline or "reserve" barrels had through them before 22 Feb 2022 wasn't known.

Russian barrel failures were common even in ...

8/
...summer 2022 with Russian self propelled artillery.

Being a 33 & 1/3 year American military procurement bureaucrat and a WW2 military historian means patterns of procurement failure are fingertip knowledge.

9/
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This March 14, 2024 artillery procurement failure deep dive thread is where I pulled out some of those finger tip professional resources to demonstrate the universal pattern of artillery procurement failure in WW1 & WW2 military history.

10/
There are plenty of signs that Russian artillery procurement is being driven by a crisis of artillery tube liner/barrel life.

The reemergence of the 130mm M-46 towed gun is an example.

11/
Russia would have had to start in late 2022 to vastly increase the artillery barrel liner and artillery tube production for the then inadequate and corruption affected 200 a year rate to be rising to meet demand in 2024.

The AFU drone strike here...

12/
...tells us Russia didn't.

The AFU drone strikes on the Severstal steel mill and Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant were about limiting Russian specialty steel production supporting artillery barrel liners and other gun tubes.

13/
And the short life of Russian tubes leaving storage facilities can be seen with the increasing rate at which tubes are being depleted.

14/
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Sadly this @secretsqrl123 infographic needs an updating.

The D30 did not replace D20 losses and in 2024 this homemade artillery piece made from a KBP 2A28 Grom 73mm gun showed up instead of a Trebuchet.

But it's slope of Russian artillery tube...

15/
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...wear out is highly descriptive of the "Tube shrinkage" of the "Russian God of War" in Ukraine.

But @secretsqrl123 more than made up for that small lapse with this photo.

The latest D-30's pulled from Russian Cold War storage lack tires...

16/
...as well as barrel life.

Like the 2022 decision not to build more industrial capability for artillery tube liners and barrels.

The Putin Regime didn't invest in new tire manufacturing capability for Cold War reserve weapons.

17/
And Ukraine's drone-based strategic bombing campaign against Russian chemical plants since 2023 shows it knows that fact too.

Tires are as much an industrial bottleneck for Russia in July 2024 as artillery tubes.

18/
The immobility of Russian towed artillery facing the latest generations of Ukrainian FPV drones with a 25 km radius of action is why the Russian 7-to-1 tube advantage in Jan 2024 has shrunk to something just over 3-to-1 now.

19/
That the Economist is saying in July 2024 what I predicted about Russian tube wear in March 2024, for occurring in late June 2024, seems to be spot on. Given the "Leaking delays" you see from its UK MoD and NATO sources.😉

20/20 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 17
Yes, the head of the USSS really is gaslighting the heck out of the American public over her agency's incompetence, rather than resigning like she should.

Federal agencies, like Russian propagandists, use a "firehose of falsehoods" to confuse the...

Fed lying two-step🧵
1/
...audience & fragment any emerging consensus on what should be done. That way none of them get fired.

Incompetence led to negligence that created an opportunity for a nut hearing Ross Perot in his fillings to take a shot.

Admitting either incompetence or negligence...

2/
...or both is career suicide.

We saw this after 9/11/2001.

We saw it in the Afghan pull out.

We saw it in the Pentagon's prediction Kyiv would fall in 3-to-5 days.

3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 16
Where we are here because the head of the USSS didn't immediately resign:

"...it’s just a question of active malice at worst vs spiteful incompetence at best."

This will have mid-term effects leading to a new political spoils hiring system for the Federal Civil Service.

1/
Diversity, Equity and Inclusion hiring objectives in the Federal Civil Service picks AGAINST professional merit.

That is, D.E.I. is not professional. It is a form of political spoils system.

There is a reason for the meme that DEI stands for "Didn't Earn It."

2/
The USSS incompetently letting Trump get shot in the head, the failed COVID-19 mandatory vax jab & the disastrous Afghan pullout have destroyed the public's trust in the "Professional Federal Civil Service."

No one was fired for incompetence nor can be.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 16
>>Chinese PLA: "You need to use forklifts and pallets. There are huge manpower savings and cargo productivity advantages in using them"

>>Russians: "Why? Mobiks are good enough and always more mobiks backs where those came from."

1/
>>Chinese PLA: Seriously?!?

>>Russians: Seriously, comrade.

2/
>>Chinese PLA: Do you Russian Army officers know what a pallet or forklift look like?

3/3 End
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 15
The videos of the USSS catastrophic failure during the assassination attempt on former President Trump are beyond control and are utterly toxic for public trust that the Federal government is fair and has institutional competency.

(Image H/T @Peoples_Pundit)
1/ Image
A public mea culpa would have been the smart play for the USSS bureaucracy.

Instead we are getting the gaslighting that we always see from Feds that are engaged in bureaucratic group narcissism and the institutional failure that groupthink dictates.

2/ Image
The only reasonable explanation for the current director of the USSS not speaking out about her agency's failure in letting an assassin shoot Former Pres. Trump in the head is that she is busy lawyering up for the FBI investigation...
3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 15
A derailed Russian train with the freight car truck thrown out from under the freight cars?

The vast majority of train derailments happen in rail yards where the average train speed is about five MPH/eight KMH.**

Russian railway bearing derailment watch🧵

(**See: ! )
1/aar.org/issue/derailme…
Having one of these railway car trucks detach from a rail car at five MPH/eight KMH seems a bit...energetic?

Are we seeing now seeing evidence of imported railway bearing wear out issues appearing?

2/
 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r…
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Yes, there is a railway war between Ukrainian partisans and intelligence on one side and Russian security on the other.

3/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_war_…
Read 17 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 12
Look,

US Military intelligence did not pick up on the lack of forklifts and pallets in Russian artillery logistics for 80 years because Russia strong™️ got you promoted.⬇️

A US intelligence careerism on Russia & China🧵
1/
Even when the 1980's Soviet army in Afghanistan showed 80% of every truck lift spent 80% of the time manually loading and unloading could not penetrate Russia strong™️ careerism.

2/
Western Intelligence catreerism has ever been thus. Russia strong™️ had its pre-WW2 counterpart in:

"Japan copies the West, and doesn't innovate."

Then the A6M Zero with the rest of the IJN Kido Butai carrier fleet came calling at Pearl Harbor.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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