Thread by @zalaly

📣 Our new paper in @NEJM

Has the risk of #LongCovid changed over the course of the pandemic?

By @Biostayan, Taeyoung Choi and me

A 🧵
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

We enrolled people who had SARS-CoV-2 infection in the pre-delta, delta and omicron eras (441,583 people) and built 3 era-specific controls

We assessed the cumulative incidence of #LongCovid at 1 year after infection by pandemic era & vaccination status

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

Among unvaccinated people, the cumulative incidence of #LongCovid declined over the course of the pandemic from a high of 10.4 per 100 adults infected in the pre-delta era to 7.7 per 100 adults infected in the omicron era

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

Among vaccinated people, the cumulative incidence of #LongCovid declined from 5.3 per 100 adults infected in the delta era to 3.5 per 100 adults infected in the omicron era

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

Overall, the cumulative incidence of #LongCovid declined from a high of 10.4 per 100 unvaccinated persons infected in the pre-delta era to 3.5 per 100 vaccinated persons infected in the omicron era

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

Much of the decline (~ 70%) was attributable to vaccination and about 30% was attributable to era effects (i.e. changes in characteristics of the virus and other temporal factors)

#LongCovid
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

We noted a shift in the features of #LongCovid with increased risk of GI and metabolic disorders in omicron – these went up (not down) in omicron compared to prior eras

Each variant has its own Long Covid fingerprint.

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

The remaining risk of 3.5% among vaccinated people infected in the omicron era is substantial

This will contribute millions of additional Long Covid cases - adding to an exorbitant toll of chronic disease & disability

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

Millions already have Long Covid, and millions more will continue to be affected. Governments must address the care needs of those with Long Covid, and we must intensify our efforts to understand, prevent, and figure out how to optimally treat Long Covid

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

Terrific editorial by Cliff Rosen @Rosen_Lab



nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

Thanks to the amazing @sourwine for developing this press release.

@WUSTLnews
@WUSTLmed
@WUSTL

medicine.wustl.edu/news/risk-of-l…

Thanks also to our reviewers, editors, and all those who supported us in this project.

And to my wonderful co-authors @Biostayan and Taeyoung Choi.

@WUSTLmed @VREFSTL @VAResearch @vahsrd

Thanks for the support from the Long Covid community.

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

Coverage by @PamBelluck in @nytimes

nytimes.com/article/long-c…

By @rddysum in @WSJ

wsj.com/health/long-co…

Jamie Ducharme in @TIME

time.com/6999274/long-c…

Brenda Goodman in @CNN

cnn.com/2024/07/17/hea…

@cooney_liz in @statnews

statnews.com/2024/07/17/lon…

Coverage in @nytimes by @PamBelluck

nytimes.com/2024/07/17/hea…

And wonderful piece by @jwgale in @business

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…