Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
Jul 18 11 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The UK Covid Public Inquiry has published its first Report, on Resilience and Preparedness. It is the most urgent report, as we are still ill-prepared for the next pandemic.

🧵
This is the first of many reports, each reviewing a specific area, including healthcare systems; test, trace, and isolate; and the economic response to the pandemic.

The Module 1 Report sets out nine significant flaws from the Covid-19 pandemic: Image
The Report suggests 10 recommendations: Image
It is clear from Lady Hallett’s report that all these recommendations need to be implemented, as the response needs to be systematic rather than component-based. This system-level response is welcome.
As Lady Hallett summed up, ‘Unless the lessons are learned and fundamental change is implemented, the human and financial cost and sacrifice of the Covid-19 pandemic will have been in vain.’
The UK resilience framework, and the Resilience Approach, was adopted in the early 2000s. The risk is that we now new, improved, resilience framework, but this will then lead to an efficiency drive that leaves such resilence poorly exposed.
The Covid-19 Inquiry was announced in Parliament in May 2021, instigated in June 2022 and it has taken us over two years from then to get to this point. In terms of formal planning for a pandemic, the Influenza Pandemic plan still dates back to pre-Covid times.
‘Key learnings’ from previous simulations are published, but have not been implemented. Image
The risk is that the recommendations from the Covid Inquiry also become ‘key learnings’. It is imperative that the new Government takes the Covid Inquiry report seriously, and implements it.
The pandemic response structure in the UK was a mess in the run-up to Covid, and, although changes have been made, the civil preparedness and resilience structure remains unclear, hence the recommendation for reform. Image
The next pandemic is coming, it’s just that we don’t know what it will be. We now have H5 Avian flu in humans following exposure to dairy cows. The passing of animal diseases to humans, so called zoonoses, could adapt and potentially lead to a next pandemic.

We are not prepared.

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Jun 9, 2023
Data thread from today's @IndependentSage briefing including a discussion on sick pay, the topic of today's discussion. 🧵 Image
Cases and tests. Relatively low.
Caveat that the ONS Covid infection survey has been paused ImageImageImageImage
Hospital admissions. Trend not upward.
Caveat that testing has changed in hospital. ImageImageImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Apr 21, 2023
Covid data presentation for the @IndependentSage briefing on 21 April 2023 🧵 Image
Testing has changed from 1 April 2023, so it is difficult to compare before and after this date.
gov.uk/government/new…
The ONS survey has been 'paused', so we can look at the (less recent, less representative) data on PCR positivity

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testin… ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Apr 20, 2023
Alright. Another maths thread. And why it's non-trivial to ask exam questions.
🧵
OK. So the 'exam question' is:

"Inflation is currently 10%. If inflation halves, how much will a £1 pint of milk cost".

Sounds easy. It's not. It's ambiguous. It's not a good question. Unless it's designed to be a bad question. In which case it's a good question.
1. It talks about 'inflation'. But *what* inflation? At the moment, we have overall inflation at roughly 10% but inflation of food at roughly 20%. So is the overall inflation rate the same as the inflation rate for milk? It's not clear. Bad question.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 24, 2023
Data thread from today's @IndependentSage briefing. 🧵
First, the @ONS Covid Infection Survey is being paused, and @CovidGenomicsUK is being retired. This will have implications for data reliability and availability going forward.
Read 17 tweets
Mar 20, 2023
OK, I'm going to write a response to this maths problem, published in @DailyMailUK, that has caused a lot of comment, some thinking the answer is 1 and some thinking the answer is 9.

A thread. 🧵

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
So, what answer is correct? Is it 1 or is it 9?

Many of us would go straight to the answer 1. That's because we know (or our children know, and have taught us), that there is a 'rule' for how you deal with the order of doing the calculation - do you do + first or ÷, for example?
Enter BIDMAS (or BODMAS).

"It stands for Brackets, Indices [or Order], Division, Multiplication, Addition and Subtraction."

That's the conventional order. Forget about indices [or order] for now - that's not important for this one.
bbc.co.uk/bitesize/topic…
Read 12 tweets
Mar 20, 2023
Like it or not, this equation is ambiguous.

The thing about maths (and language for that matter) is you aim to express things elegantly, while being unabiguous.

Unless you're trying not to.
Read 4 tweets

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