Thread by @MonicaLMarks

AOC just spent an hour weighing in on efforts to replace Biden as the nominee. It’s an important listen.

She thinks an open convention is lunacy & that multiple red alerts on the dashboard aren’t getting enough consideration.

Here are her 7 main points, as I understood them: 🧵

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1814172695166419325

1. Legal viability

AOC thinks that pundits, pollsters & columnists are underestimating the legal challenges Republicans could mount to the presence of another candidate on the ballot in key swing states including but not limited to Ohio.

She says lawyers specialised in elections—those meeting with Congress Democrats like her—cannot game out how defending against those might look.

Michigan’s ballot deadline is just 2 days after the Dem convention, for ex: one of many reasons AOC thinks an open convention is nuts.

2. Time

Even at breakneck pace, she suggests, Democrats might not be able to get a new nominee and ensure they have the time it takes to get on all ballots, garner key endorsements, etc.

And certainly not if there’s an open convention.

Getting union endorsements takes weeks, for example, she says. And early ballots start going out in September. “This election is not in November,” she says. “It’s in September.”

“This is not 2023,” she states. We can’t let decisions be made by “groupthink, momentum, inertia.”

3. Replacement efforts, AOC argues, are primarily donor driven not voter driven—especially insofar as they’re motivating her colleagues in Congress

“What I’m hearing from my colleagues is ‘my donors this, my donors that,’ not ‘my voters this my voters that.’”

“I’m not here to dismiss everyday people who have this opinion,” she says [i.e. that Joe needs to go]. But “the mechanisms by which this decision is being made are concerning me.”

She portrays replacement efforts as the work of elites who have not gamed out a clear alternative.

4. Donors & elites driving “Joe must go” are not united behind Harris, AOC argues.

“The people in these rooms,” she says, “don’t have a plan.” Many are critical of Harris, or engaging in wishful thinking about other candidates & impracticable notions of an open convention.

5. There is “no safe [alternative] option”

AOC says polling points to no clear candidate who would necessarily beat Trump, and that no alternative process avoids those other pitfalls.

“I have not seen an alternative scenario that doesn’t set us up for enormous peril,” she says.

6. Biden has outperformed electoral expectations w/ key demographics

He’s done well historically w/ “marginalised” demographics (I think she meant Black voters).

She also says that Biden does well with older people who aren’t on social media & are hard for Democrats to win.

AOC added that Biden has “strong, broad union support” & that his union support does not automatically transfer over to another candidate.

The union endorsement processes “takes WEEKS,” she says, if you’re going at a breakneck pace.” Which gets back to the time challenge.

7. Polling is often wrong & July polls shouldn’t dictate this decision

AOC says she doesn’t put huge stock in polls. She cites two examples (her first race & most recent primary race) where polls, inc her own, had her down but she won handily.

This seemed to contradict point #5

So those were her 7 main points, as I heard them. Personally, I think Biden should hand the reins to Harris ASAP & in a manner that avoids open convention.

AOC seems to be down with Biden or Harris topping the ticket, but thinks full ticket erasure & open convention are lunacy.

Throughout the hour, AOC acknowledged that people on all sides of this debate are here because of fear about what a Trump presidency might mean.

But she said that it’s important to add more dimensions to this discussion so people go in “with their eyes wide open.”

AOC reserves her greatest anger for elected Democrat colleagues who are:

1) knocking Biden off the record in leaks to the press (she blames them not the press btw), and

2) saying that Democrats are going to lose in November (she says they should stop warming their seats)

“My community doesn’t have the luxury of saying we’re gonna lose—in July!” she says, clearly exasperated with this crowd. “They’re the first ones deported.”

She emphasises avoiding defeatism and being clear-eyed, even when the choices are hard.

AOC also reminds us of her electoral pragmatism, a trait that’s annoyed more ideological supporters inc those farther to the left.

“We need to make decisions in the conditions we have before us,” she says, “even if they’re ugly, even if they’re hard.”

“We don’t get to run away”

At no point does AOC argue Biden is not missing a step cognitively, or say he’s fully capable of conducting presidential duties at all hours.

Though she does say he performs better in front of crowds, who jazz him up, than in debates or interviews with just moderators present.

She ends by suggesting she’s fine with Biden or Harris but that an open convention is madness.

“As a person responsible for coming to a decision, I haven’t seen what I need to see to substantiate an alternative,” she says, indicating she’s most comfortable with Biden.

I summarised & shared this not bc it is my personal view—I am very concerned by Biden topping the ticket, wish he’d bowed out sooner, think he’s been blinded by ego & poor advice, and wish he’d exit stage left for Harris—but bc I think AOC raises points we must deal with.

This is a huge decision and it’s happening in an extremely non-ideal way. Whatever goes down this coming month, I believe Biden & his inner circle did a huge disservice by waiting this long.

It’s a Catch-22 w/ serious risks all around. AOC is right that it’s not 2023, sadly.