Thread by @TrentTelenko

I've really happy with the AFU's increasingly effective drone counter-air efforts and the drone swarm strike Millerovo air base near Rostov-on-Don underlines this improvement.

1/
Lanchester Smiles🧵

en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian…

The AFU are learning, refining their tactics, weaponeering, and targeting.

This Millerovo air base strike appears to have involved 2 dozen or more OWA Drones/propeller cruise missiles.

That is about the right number one drone per desired mean point of impact (DMPI).

2/

That is, one drone impact point per Su-34 parking spot and one per fuel tank.

These AFU improvements are something the "Escalation Management™️" and "Russian Strong™️" crowds refuse to see.

(H/T @PStyle0ne1)
3/

Ukraine is getting better and Russia is getting worse in terms of combat effectiveness as time goes on in this war.

One of the realities of Lanchester's attrition model is the winning side gets more effective with cumulative experience and the losing side less...
4/

..due to attrition exceeding training/production.

The collapse of Japanese & German versus Allied airpower in World War 2 are classic examples of how Lanchester's elegant mathematical curve works in the real world.

5/
lernfreude632531525.wordpress.com/2021/03/22/lan…

We are now starting to see a lot of real world evidence Russian artillery is going down the path of WW2 Japanese & German air power went.

While "Russia will never run out of artillery."

It doesn't mean the Russian artillery at the end...

6/

https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1808895629898154365

...of the Russo-Ukrainian War will be as effective for the effort & cost expended as at the start.

The Lanchester Square law equation trend is not the Russian Artillery's friend.

7/

https://x.com/PosiTroll/status/1807366586250014913

Russian national ground based air defense has already suffered a full Lanchester Square collapse of the WW2 German & Japanese airpower model.

It is why the AFU Millerovo air base OWA drone strike worked.
8/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1811079426303742232

This graph is a wonderful way to show a Russian manpower Lanchester square collapse in progress.

Look at the time it took to reach the first 100K Russian losses.

Now do that for 200k, 300k 400k and 500k. The 'next 100k' happens faster the farther right you go.

9/

Even mainstream Western media like the Economist has noticed Russian fighting vehicle losses have far exceeded production and the Cold War Soviet reserves are starting to run out.

But it is logistics that win wars.

10/

https://x.com/boris_beissner/status/1813692029341405538

We have had six generations of Russian motor transport being destroyed in Ukraine and we may have just crossed into the seventh.

The RuAF is using bicycles for 'motor transport' in Ukraine. See the two bicycles in the video clip starting at 1:04🤯⬇️


10/

https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1813537130184077652

Russian Army animal labor dragging ammo boxes on the ground has joined bicycles in Russian Army front line supply distribution, replacing motor vehicles that cannot beat the AFU's "The Last 5 Kilometer Drone Blockade."⬇️

11/

https://x.com/ManiacMagic1/status/1813857825413849187

Western logistical intelligence has been incompetent through out the Russo-Ukrainian War for a lot of deep institutional defect reasons involving University classism and senior intelligence patron-client reasons.

12/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1514266516476379139

Of the two, the latter is far more serious and harder to beat.

When the senior Western politicians want to be lied too...

...and they fire senior intelligence officials who are telling them the truth...

...they will be lied too.

13/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1813627425936269584

However, we have reached a point with logistical intelligence in Ukraine where the evidence kills the lies.

Russian front line troops eating nettle soup can't be explained by anything else but collapsing Russian motor transport.

14/

https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1814473923456839716

And the collapse of Russian transport has affected Russian casualty evacuation such that Russian military doctors have resorted to Maggot therapy to save the lives of Russian soldiers from gangrene.

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https://x.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1814656141747536125

Maggot therapy is evidence of the complete regression of the Russian Army medical system to the 1850 Crimean War due to a lack of motor transport.

16/

Maggot therapy is an improvisation to remove gangrenous tissue that the maggots consume leaving only live tissue.

Absent medical supplies to remove the gangrene surgically - due to a lack of motor transport - this is the best improvisation Russian Army doctors have.

17/

I've got to compliment the smart Russian doctors who improvised maggot therapy to save lives of otherwise dying mobiks in a crisis.

But the size and depth of the necrotic tissue in those wounds wounds points to motor transport/casevac failure.

18/

Whatever success Russian doctors have here in saving a life.

It is unlikely that soldier will ever fight again with massive chunks of musculature lost.

Multiply the social burden of hundreds of thousands of RuAF vets with wounds like this...

19/

...missing limbs and traumatic brain injury from drone hits will be immense for coming decades for a nation too zombified by "Russian Exceptionalism" propaganda to care.

Lanchester comes for nations - see Czarist Russia 1917 - as well a armies.

20/

The intellectual giants promoting "Escalation Management" do not care since these are consequences of math.

Math from a dead UK math guy is meaningless to the 'infallible-anointed.'

Watching senior intell guys scramble to save their jobs when Lanchester smiles will be🍿

21/21

@threadreaderapp unroll please