Artur Rehi Profile picture
Jul 22, 2024 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The Central Bank of Russia is suspending the publication of statistics on the over-the-counter currency market. This follows from a message on the regulator's website. The Central Bank explains that the decision was made to limit the impact of sanctions. This means that
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the ruble has absolutely no clear exchange rate. Now the Central Bank sets this rate at its own discretion. But the main expectation is July 26, when the Central Bank will announce an increase in the key rate. Experts predict growth from 16% to 18% but there may be surprises
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Ruble exchange rate statistics are not the only information prohibited from publication. The closed nature of gasoline production statistics in Russia also leads to problems. "The first problem is that we actually do not know exactly how much is produced, consumed, and so on
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because now we have huge problems with the openness of statistics. Problem number two is that it is very difficult to properly plan production activities when the industry is in manual regulation mode," says Grigory Bazhenov, head of the analytical center of the Independent
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Fuel Union. All this leads to an unregulated increase in fuel prices in Russia. Today, the exchange price for AI-95 gasoline has reached its maximum for this year and amounted to about 74.5 thousand rubles ($850) per ton. This is evidenced by the results of trading on the
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St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. The reasons for the current situation are an information vacuum, manual regulation and an environment in which it is unclear what volumes of refinery capacity have fallen due to UAV attacks. And due to the lack of data on
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production and supplies, prices can be driven up by rumors, says Grigory Bazhenov, head of the analytical center of the Independent Fuel Union. Russia continues to search for opportunities to sell LNG. "Mysterious companies" from the UAE are purchasing tankers for the
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transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has already led to an increase in prices for such vessels, writes the Financial Times. The publication points out that such dynamics indicate that Russia is preparing for tougher sanctions on LNG supplies and is building
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up its "shadow fleet" to bypass future restrictions. According to Windward, a company that consults ship owners, since the second half of last year, more than 50 LNG carriers have been purchased by companies registered in the UAE. It is noted that it is almost impossible
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to trace the chain of ownership in such transactions. Kpler says that such operations may be related to Russian interests. According to the company, one of these tankers is definitely loading LNG in Yamal. Russia also continues to sell gas to China. In January-June 2024,
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Russia supplied China with 3.515 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth $2.066 billion, RIA Novosti writes, citing data from the General Administration of Customs of China. Compared to the same period last year, supplies fell by 9.24%. In the first half of 2023,
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China bought 3.873 million tons of LNG from Russia for $2.693 billion. Overall, in 2023, Russian LNG supplies to China increased by 23%. Last year, China purchased 8 million tons of Russian LNG for $5.2 billion. Western countries should increase sanctions pressure on Russia
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and China. China has been helping to circumvent sanctions in many ways, trying to profit from Russia's problems.
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More from @ArturRehi

Jan 10
The outgoing Biden administration will be remembered in history as an example of failed U.S. security assistance policy. Enormous sums allocated by the United States for aid to Ukraine have remained uncontracted. Of the many billions of dollars provided through the USAI
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program, only $13 million were committed to contracts. Approximately $10 billion remains unused, and its allocation will be handled by the new administration. For comparison, $4.6 billion in replacement funds were obligated during the same period. While the United States
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continues to declare itself Ukraine’s strongest ally, its delays lead to significant losses among Ukrainians. Ukraine depends on international aid, and without the support of its allies, it would not have been able to hold back Russia’s advance for so long. However,
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Read 5 tweets
Jan 7
Russia exploits the energy crisis in Transnistria to escalate tensions in the region and shift blame onto Ukraine. Moldova offered assistance with fuel and gas supplies, but the government of the unrecognized republic refused the help. Playing the victim and portraying
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Ukraine in a negative light now serves their interests much better. The same tactics are employed by other allies of Putin and Moldova's neighbors - Hungary and Slovakia. The Kremlin uses these situations as part of a massive information campaign against Ukraine, aiming
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to influence public opinion across Europe. Propagandists are on the ground, producing videos showing freezing, impoverished residents left without gas. Although Hungary and Slovakia secured gas supplies through the TurkStream pipeline, costs have risen significantly.
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Read 12 tweets
Jan 6
Happy New Year! So many events have unfolded during the break that it’s hard to choose a topic for an article. Perhaps the most pressing issue today is the new offensive in the Kursk region. Since the operation has just begun, and naturally, the Armed Forces of Ukraine
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keep their plans secret, reports on Telegram suggest the offensive is progressing successfully. Ukrainian forces are actively using electronic warfare systems. Regarding the Donetsk region, Russia continues its advance, though the pace has noticeably slowed, which does not
2/18
make the AFU’s job any easier. In Pokrovsk, Russian drones are operating intensively. Multiple sources have noted that the main issue on the Pokrovsk front is internal problems within the Ukrainian army, as reported by numerous military insiders. There are shortages of
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Read 18 tweets
Dec 16, 2024
This week, we received an answer on how effective the Korean troops are and how much they are helping Russia in the Kursk region. Footage of North Korean attacks demonstrates that they lack the skills to conduct modern warfare, which was not a surprise. They managed to
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capture several trenches, which were eventually recaptured by Ukrainian forces. The North Koreans became easy targets as they advanced through open fields in large groups. They proved to be ineffective, but it should not be forgotten that Ukrainians still have to repel these
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attacks, incurring their own losses. The situation remains difficult on the Pokrovsk direction as well. However, there have been some changes and personnel reshuffles. For a long time, reports from the area highlighted inadequate command, which led to the advancement of
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Read 15 tweets
Dec 11, 2024
No dictatorship lasts forever, and all dictators are mortal. Putin, due to his age alone, may "kick the bucket" very soon, although, unlike ordinary Russians, he can afford proper medical care. The events in Syria are clearly a significant blow to his nervous system and
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heart health. Such a scenario is now easy to imagine within Russia itself. The fall of Assad created a power vacuum in Syria, and now several countries are advancing their interests. Sunnis backed by Turkey, Kurds supported by the U.S., factions supported by Israel, Iran and
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remnants of Hezbollah, along with the remains of Russian units — all of it has become a chaotic mix. It's far too early to speak of an end to the crisis. Stability in Syria will not return soon. Over the years, Assad destroyed the moderate opposition, leaving only the most
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Read 9 tweets
Dec 9, 2024
Russia continues to advance and achieve local successes in the areas of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. However, it is difficult to call this a success, as it comes at a huge cost in Russian losses. In this sense, the report differs little from previous ones from this section of the
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front. But the main events of recent days are, of course, in Syria. The regime of Bashar al-Assad has fallen, and it took only a few days for this to happen. Bashar al-Assad was the last dictator from the era of the Arab Spring. Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak, Abdelaziz Bouteflika,
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Muammar Gaddafi – for various reasons, they are no longer in power. Among all the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, Syria saw the highest number of casualties and destruction. Protests, which escalated into a civil war, began in 2011. Losing power and control,
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Read 22 tweets

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