Artur Rehi Profile picture
Jul 22, 2024 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The Central Bank of Russia is suspending the publication of statistics on the over-the-counter currency market. This follows from a message on the regulator's website. The Central Bank explains that the decision was made to limit the impact of sanctions. This means that
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the ruble has absolutely no clear exchange rate. Now the Central Bank sets this rate at its own discretion. But the main expectation is July 26, when the Central Bank will announce an increase in the key rate. Experts predict growth from 16% to 18% but there may be surprises
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Ruble exchange rate statistics are not the only information prohibited from publication. The closed nature of gasoline production statistics in Russia also leads to problems. "The first problem is that we actually do not know exactly how much is produced, consumed, and so on
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because now we have huge problems with the openness of statistics. Problem number two is that it is very difficult to properly plan production activities when the industry is in manual regulation mode," says Grigory Bazhenov, head of the analytical center of the Independent
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Fuel Union. All this leads to an unregulated increase in fuel prices in Russia. Today, the exchange price for AI-95 gasoline has reached its maximum for this year and amounted to about 74.5 thousand rubles ($850) per ton. This is evidenced by the results of trading on the
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St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. The reasons for the current situation are an information vacuum, manual regulation and an environment in which it is unclear what volumes of refinery capacity have fallen due to UAV attacks. And due to the lack of data on
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production and supplies, prices can be driven up by rumors, says Grigory Bazhenov, head of the analytical center of the Independent Fuel Union. Russia continues to search for opportunities to sell LNG. "Mysterious companies" from the UAE are purchasing tankers for the
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transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has already led to an increase in prices for such vessels, writes the Financial Times. The publication points out that such dynamics indicate that Russia is preparing for tougher sanctions on LNG supplies and is building
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up its "shadow fleet" to bypass future restrictions. According to Windward, a company that consults ship owners, since the second half of last year, more than 50 LNG carriers have been purchased by companies registered in the UAE. It is noted that it is almost impossible
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to trace the chain of ownership in such transactions. Kpler says that such operations may be related to Russian interests. According to the company, one of these tankers is definitely loading LNG in Yamal. Russia also continues to sell gas to China. In January-June 2024,
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Russia supplied China with 3.515 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth $2.066 billion, RIA Novosti writes, citing data from the General Administration of Customs of China. Compared to the same period last year, supplies fell by 9.24%. In the first half of 2023,
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China bought 3.873 million tons of LNG from Russia for $2.693 billion. Overall, in 2023, Russian LNG supplies to China increased by 23%. Last year, China purchased 8 million tons of Russian LNG for $5.2 billion. Western countries should increase sanctions pressure on Russia
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and China. China has been helping to circumvent sanctions in many ways, trying to profit from Russia's problems.
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More from @ArturRehi

May 21
Trump’s two-hour phone call with Putin once again reinforced the Russian leader’s perception of Trump’s weakness. Trump flatly refuses to put any pressure on Putin and is once again expected to direct pressure at Ukraine instead. This will bring neither a ceasefire nor peace
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any closer. Trump has also refused to support the EU’s sanctions against Russia and is even open to resuming trade with Moscow. Meanwhile, the EU has finally mustered the will to adopt a 17th package of sanctions against Russia. This round primarily targets Russia’s shadow
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fleet—a serious blow, since the export of oil products is one of the main sources fueling Russian aggression. Ahead of the sanctions package announcement, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas stated: "The Russians want
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Read 8 tweets
May 15
Yesterday's incident involving an oil tanker in the Gulf of Finland once again demonstrates that Russia is a global threat—not just a threat to Ukraine. What happened? According to Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, "Estonia exercised its right to monitor a shadow
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fleet vessel, the Argent/Jaguar, which was sailing through its exclusive economic zone without a flag or insurance. This vessel is included on the UK sanctions list... Russia responded in a dangerously aggressive manner by sending a fighter jet to the ship, which also
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violated Estonian airspace. This incident is yet another example that Russia poses a serious threat not only in the context of its military aggression against Ukraine, but on a much broader scale," the minister added. Russia is testing NATO's reaction to incidents like
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Read 16 tweets
May 14
Putin has found himself in an interesting situation. When Europe started talking about introducing new sanctions, he decided to play the peacemaker once again and said he wanted to meet with the Ukrainian side. Western countries then decided to postpone the sanctions
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— which is exactly what he was aiming for. But Zelensky chose to show the world something we here in Estonia also understand very well: Putin is not seeking peace — he can’t afford it. His entire economy is built around war. If the war ends, so does Russia. Zelensky announced
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that he would travel to Turkey and wants to meet with Putin. He’s cornered Putin by turning his own words against him. Yes, Putin was given yet another delay — but only until Thursday. After that, the sanctions package will be submitted for review and then gradually
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Read 12 tweets
May 13
At the conference after May 9, Putin himself announced the organization of peace talks. He wanted to once again present himself to the world as a peacemaker, but when Zelensky personally agreed to attend the meeting in Turkey, Putin suddenly changed his mind. Trump also
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approved of the meeting and plans to be present, but now Russia is looking for an excuse not to attend the negotiations. Putin only wanted these talks to buy time once again, and Ukrainian intelligence provides an explanation why: “The Russian Federation is intensively
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preparing for a major offensive and is deploying troops to key points on the battlefield,” — Financial Times, citing the GUR (Ukrainian Defense Intelligence). Time and again, when Putin announces new negotiations, Ukraine’s Western allies start running in circles, screaming
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Read 9 tweets
May 8
Putin’s main air defense system arrived in Moscow for the parade — Xi Jinping — along with other guests such as Aleksandar Vučić, Robert Fico, and various African dictators, including President of the Republic of Congo Denis Sassou Nguesso, President of Zimbabwe Emmerson
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Mnangagwa, and others. Ukraine has always tried to avoid collateral damage. The foreign guests are nothing more than a human shield for Putin and an attempt to convince himself and the world that he still has any political relevance. Robert Fico was particularly offended
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by Estonia’s decision to close its airspace to Moscow’s guests. All Baltic countries and Poland did the same, yet for some reason, he singled out Estonia. If EU politicians enjoy visiting the club of dictators on the day when the USSR began its occupation of the Baltic
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Read 12 tweets
May 7
Ukraine continues to carry out drone strikes on Moscow and other parts of Russia. In two days, a parade will be held in the capital to mark the 80th anniversary of the victory. In Russia, this event has long since turned into a propaganda celebration and has nothing to do
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with the end of World War II or honoring the memory of the victims of that horrific conflict. The so-called veterans who sit around Putin during the celebration did not take part in that war; more often, they are retired KGB employees or veterans of other Soviet military
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aggressions, of which there were many. Washington insiders say that the U.S. does not support the idea of a strike on Red Square during the parade, even though there will be many legitimate targets there that day. However, in reality, Ukraine is inflicting far more damage
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Read 11 tweets

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