Artur Rehi Profile picture
Jul 22, 2024 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The Central Bank of Russia is suspending the publication of statistics on the over-the-counter currency market. This follows from a message on the regulator's website. The Central Bank explains that the decision was made to limit the impact of sanctions. This means that
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the ruble has absolutely no clear exchange rate. Now the Central Bank sets this rate at its own discretion. But the main expectation is July 26, when the Central Bank will announce an increase in the key rate. Experts predict growth from 16% to 18% but there may be surprises
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Ruble exchange rate statistics are not the only information prohibited from publication. The closed nature of gasoline production statistics in Russia also leads to problems. "The first problem is that we actually do not know exactly how much is produced, consumed, and so on
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because now we have huge problems with the openness of statistics. Problem number two is that it is very difficult to properly plan production activities when the industry is in manual regulation mode," says Grigory Bazhenov, head of the analytical center of the Independent
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Fuel Union. All this leads to an unregulated increase in fuel prices in Russia. Today, the exchange price for AI-95 gasoline has reached its maximum for this year and amounted to about 74.5 thousand rubles ($850) per ton. This is evidenced by the results of trading on the
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St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. The reasons for the current situation are an information vacuum, manual regulation and an environment in which it is unclear what volumes of refinery capacity have fallen due to UAV attacks. And due to the lack of data on
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production and supplies, prices can be driven up by rumors, says Grigory Bazhenov, head of the analytical center of the Independent Fuel Union. Russia continues to search for opportunities to sell LNG. "Mysterious companies" from the UAE are purchasing tankers for the
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transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has already led to an increase in prices for such vessels, writes the Financial Times. The publication points out that such dynamics indicate that Russia is preparing for tougher sanctions on LNG supplies and is building
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up its "shadow fleet" to bypass future restrictions. According to Windward, a company that consults ship owners, since the second half of last year, more than 50 LNG carriers have been purchased by companies registered in the UAE. It is noted that it is almost impossible
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to trace the chain of ownership in such transactions. Kpler says that such operations may be related to Russian interests. According to the company, one of these tankers is definitely loading LNG in Yamal. Russia also continues to sell gas to China. In January-June 2024,
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Russia supplied China with 3.515 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth $2.066 billion, RIA Novosti writes, citing data from the General Administration of Customs of China. Compared to the same period last year, supplies fell by 9.24%. In the first half of 2023,
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China bought 3.873 million tons of LNG from Russia for $2.693 billion. Overall, in 2023, Russian LNG supplies to China increased by 23%. Last year, China purchased 8 million tons of Russian LNG for $5.2 billion. Western countries should increase sanctions pressure on Russia
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and China. China has been helping to circumvent sanctions in many ways, trying to profit from Russia's problems.
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More from @ArturRehi

Feb 11
A wave of property confiscations that swept across the regions and affected officials, security officers, and judges has brought the state an amount comparable to the annual budget of a small region. In total, over the past 5-7 years, property worth 100 billion rubles has been
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seized in corruption cases, Accounts Chamber auditor Andrei Baturkin reported in the State Duma. The confiscations have reached such a scale that, according to Baturkin, a “road map” is now required to coordinate the relevant agencies that will have to deal with seized companies, Image
houses, land plots, and collections of luxury cars and watches. It is necessary to “establish communication between the power bloc and Rosimushchestvo so that there is more feedback regarding what property is to be transferred into the ownership of the Russian Federation,” Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 10
Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that Greece and Malta have become the main obstacles to an EU proposal to replace the price cap on Russian oil with a ban on services necessary for transporting fuel. According to the agency’s interlocutors, the two southern European
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countries raised concerns about this step at a meeting of EU ambassadors on Monday, where the latest sanctions package against Russia was presented. They warned that such a shift could affect Europe’s shipping industry and energy prices. Both countries also requested Image
clarifications regarding proposals to impose sanctions on foreign ports handling Russian oil and to strengthen oversight of ship sellers in order to reduce the number of vessels entering Moscow’s fleet. A representative of the Greek government declined to comment. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 9
The most unpleasant forecasts regarding the Russian economy are beginning to materialize. What analysts cautiously spoke about a year ago is now being discussed openly even by the most pro-government Russian economists: the safety margin is rapidly shrinking. While Putin talks
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about “stability” and “growth,” the reality looks far more prosaic: a country that unleashed a war of aggression against Ukraine is methodically burning through its own financial system. According to estimates by Germany’s BND intelligence service, Russia’s real military spending Image
reaches around 10% of GDP and nearly half of the federal budget. In fact, actual expenditures are 66% higher than officially declared, due to hidden budget lines, Defense Ministry construction projects, military IT infrastructure, and social payments to servicemen. In simple Image
Read 21 tweets
Feb 4
According to BND estimates, last year Russia’s military spending may have amounted to almost half of the state budget and around 10% of the country’s GDP. According to the German intelligence service, Russia is spending significantly more on the war and its armed forces
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than it has declared in recent years. Since the start of the war against Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s defense budget has increased sharply every year. In addition, Russia’s interpretation of “defense spending” differs significantly from the NATO definition, German Image
intelligence officials note. A comprehensive analysis of budget data conducted by BND shows that Russia’s defense budget in recent years was 66% higher than officially reported. Unaccounted expenditures include, for example, construction projects of the Ministry of Defense, Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 30
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky explained why he sharply criticized Europe at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He made these remarks during a meeting with journalists in Kyiv, according to a correspondent from European Pravda. Zelensky said he had grounds for critical
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statements toward Europe after a lack of funding led to a shortage of air defense missiles, allowing Russia to strike Kyiv’s energy infrastructure. Zelensky did not deny that his speech may have sounded overly harsh from European capitals and explained this by saying that Image
Ukraine and the rest of Europe live in different information spaces. He also acknowledged that the differences are not only informational but also emotional in how events are perceived. The president explained that his Davos speech was preceded by heavy strikes on energy Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 22
Putin is losing the game he himself started. His bet was placed on a return to the world of the 19th and early 20th centuries - a world of empires and spheres of influence, where Europe, America, Africa, and Asia are divided among several “superpowers.” In Putin’s vision of
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the world, there were supposed to be three such powers: the United States, Russia, and China. However, the real transformation of the global order is unfolding in a completely different way. The key failure is Ukraine. At the end of the fourth year of war, Russia has still
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been unable to subjugate it. The army is visibly degrading, human and technological resources are being exhausted, the economy is held together by military spending and gray schemes, and the state increasingly resembles an overextended empire losing its ability to govern
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Read 19 tweets

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