Troy Cross Profile picture
Jul 22 19 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/n I'm really proud of this report on bitcoin ownership.
Our survey of 3,538 adults in the US found bitcoin ownership:
-covers the full spectrum of political identity
-is skewed young and male
-correlates weakly with a unique profile of moral values
-correlates strongly with knowledge of bitcoin
🧵Image
2/n We wanted to understand who owns bitcoin and who doesn't, and why. That called for research. Not just surface-level demographics, but a deep look into the roots of our psycho-social identities.

Many frameworks claim to do this, but my research partner, @andrewwperkins chose "moral foundations" and designed a comprehensive series of questions.

We then we employed a professional firm to help us achieve a representative sample.Image
3/n As every bitcoiner knows, true randomness is hard to come by, but we think even visually you can see that we did pretty well along several dimensions in achieving something fairly representative. And it's a large n, 3,538 people. Image
4/n Demographics. We found no strong correlations across many dimensions--race, ethnicity, religion, relationship status, income, education, or financial literacy--with owning bitcoin. Age and gender were the exception. Bitcoin owners in the US tend to be young and male. Image
5/n Politics. Part of what shapes identity and behavior in America--surprise surprise--is political orientation. Our political divide seems not only to be deepening, but also becoming the most important fact about identity, the one that trumps all others. So we polled it 5 different ways:Image
6/n What we found was definitely our most shocking result. Like most everyone on this app, our critics in the media, academics who write about bitcoin, and almost all politicians, we thought bitcoin ownership would skew towards the political right, and towards libertarianism.
Wrong!Image
7/n Bitcoin owners looked pretty much like the non-bitcoin owners in our sample: mostly moderate! They were still a bit more prone to the political extremes on both liberal and the conservative, than non-owners. (Statistically significant but small.)
8/n Even stranger was that people who self-identified as "very liberal" or on a 10-point scale, located themselves at the far left, were the most likely to own bitcoin, relative to other political identities. Look at this. Look... Image
9/n Note that the above chart is not saying that more bitcoiners are very liberal than any other political identity. They're not. Most bitcoiners are moderates. It's saying that if you randomly pick someone very liberal and randomly pick someone who is moderate, the liberal will be more likely to own bitcoin.
10/n On "moral foundations" we knew that liberals and conservatives have distinct profiles. For example, liberals value "care" more than conservatives, and conservatives value "loyalty" more than liberals. We wanted to see which bitcoin owners resembled. Turns out it's both. Image
11/n Finally, we turned to questions about whether people know about bitcoin, trust it, think it's useful, and think it's good. We asked 4 questions on each of these. And we found that here, bitcoin owners differed dramatically from non-owners of all political stripes. Image
12/n Zooming in on trust and perceived morality, you can really see the stark contrast between those who own bitcoin and those who don't. Image
13/n These four factors--trust, knowledge, utility, and perceived morality--were the strongest correlations in our data with bitcoin ownership. They also correlated with each other. Here, you can see these factors compared to moral foundations. Image
14/n To summarize our findings I'm going to quote from the conclusion of our report:
From our polarized political discourse, one might be tempted to think that Bitcoin ownership is a kind of identity, and especially a kind of identity that reflects political orientation.
15/n We found that not to be the case. Bitcoin owners are politically just like the rest of America: mostly moderate, with smaller conservative and liberal contingents.
16/n Bitcoin owners look like other Americans in most demographic respects, with one striking exception: they tend to be younger and male.
17/n What correlates most strongly with Bitcoin ownership is not who you are, so to speak, but how much you know about Bitcoin, and whether you think it is useful, trustworthy, and good.
18/n The 14% of Americans who own Bitcoin, it turns out, are not members of some particular political tribe. Rather, they are simply Americans who have taken the time to study the technology and formed positive attitudes about it.
19/n Thanks for reading. You can download the report at and please give us a follow @NakamotoProjct.thenakamotoproject.org

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More from @thetrocro

Aug 1, 2023
"In closing, bitcoin appears to provide a number of benefits across an ESG framework."

Terrific new report on bitcoin's ESG impacts by @BrianConsolvo for @KPMG. Share it widely.

advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2023/…
@BrianConsolvo @KPMG Some highlights. On the environmental impact side, after clarifying that bitcoin has no scope 1 emissions, like EVS, and comparing bitcoin's energy use to other industries--minor, but not nothing--the report outlines 4 strategies for carbon reduction...
@BrianConsolvo @KPMG 1. Use of renewables--highlighting the drive to cheaper energy and mining's improvement of renewable energy generation financing
2. Demand response--citing Brad Jones
3. Re-use of waste heat--citing @MintGreenHQ
4. Methane reduction--citing @Vespene_Energy and @CrusoeEnergy
Read 8 tweets
May 4, 2023
When public officials tell us the banking system is “sound and resilient” or “sound and stable” or “safe and sound,” all while banks are failing, one after another… it’s not just that we dismiss everything they say about banking. We realize that institutions lie to us.
That means our behavior is harder to manipulate via lying to us.

So then leaders are stuck with the choice of telling the scary truth and sparking panic or telling an ineffective lie.

They must still choose to lie, but because it’s ineffective, it’s quickly falsified.
The feedback loop creates an epistemic spiral of mistrust. Eventually we reach a point where no one believes the lie at all, and in fact “don’t panic, we’re ok” becomes, essentially, a signal to panic,
Read 8 tweets
Mar 11, 2023
No system of carbon accounting can satisfy the following 3 constraints:

1. Compositionality. The sum of carbon footprints of actors in a system must equal the total footprint of the system.

2. Marginality. The footprint of an action must reflect the difference between that… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Let’s illustrate the tension between compositionality and marginality.

Scenario: there are 10 buyers of 1MW each in a grid with 9MW of hydro and 1MW gas production. Gas is the marginal seller.

Let’s say the footprint of hydro is 0, for simplicity, and gas is 1 ton / MWh.

Now… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
How to patch over this problem? You can mess with fungibility. Go back to our scenario. When did these 10 purchasers of power set up shop? Maybe the first 9 were running data centers, just using hydro, and then an aluminum smelter came along and they had to fire up the gas.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 6 tweets
Mar 11, 2023
Educational 🧵on carbon accounting. If you want to learn about attributional vs marginal accounting, start here.

Resources linked after a brief explanation.
Attributional accounting takes the total emissions from a system and assigns proportions of it to participants in that system.

Marginal accounting tries to determine how marginal additions to load change the emissions in a system over what it would have been without that load.
If you're in a grid that is 90% hydro-powered, but where marginal demand is met by gas, then on the attributional system, when you run your vacuum cleaner, you calculate your footprint using as assumed 90% hydro and 10% gas mix.
Read 15 tweets
Jan 24, 2023
Remember that recent MIT Technology Review piece blaming #bitcoin for 225 deaths? I don't blame you if you skipped it, or if you skip this debunking 🧵. At some point you have to just let this nonsense pass. But I can't.
technologyreview.com/2023/01/12/106…
I've said on podcasts and in spaces that we are in a moral panic about bitcoin mining, a social contagion spread by "moral entrepreneurs" and media hype.
Emotions like fear, disgust, revulsion are marshaled around an issue or a group that short circuits normal forms of reasoning
Previous moral panics included belief in widespread Satanism and corresponding abuse by Satanic cults and Satanic lyrics, arguably the freakout about pot in the 1930s, of course the witch trials, the red scare, etc. Some evil thing that is threatening EVERYTHING and MUST STOP!!
Read 36 tweets
Jan 18, 2023
Absolutely zero surprise here.
theguardian.com/environment/20…
Carbon accounting is all about counterfactuals. How much deforestation would have occurred if you *didn't* protect this little patch of forest? Such questions 1) have no firm answers; 2) since they can't be contested, they'll be answered in a way that benefits the parties asking.
In the case of rainforest deforestation, it pays you A LOT to estimate a high base rate of deforestation. Then you are "saving" a lot of carbon, and can charge a lot of money. So that is what will happened. (And that's what has happened, in hindsight.)
Read 13 tweets

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