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Daniele 🇺🇦🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Profile picture
@HartreeFock
Jul 23, 2024 • 9 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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1/n Since the start of the war in 2022, Russia has been strengthening its military industry and increasing its military budget. An investigation on Russia’s “hidden” factories, places not secret but somehow not advertised by the propaganda. @tochnyi tochnyi.info/2024/07/russia…
@tochnyi 2/n The current level of attrition is consistently high, also thanks to the use of relatively inexpensive but effective drones such as FPV heavy bombers and kamikaze. A staggering number of observed strikes on vehicles, with a peak of 1126 observed in April. Image
@tochnyi 3/n An article from The Economist expresses doubt about Russia's ability to produce enough barrels, estimating that only 100-200 are produced annually. However, this assessment is based on the assumption that Russia has technical and logistical issues.
@tochnyi 4/n However, Russia does have new radial forging capabilities in the JSC Electrostal Metallurgical Plant. This plant was already known to the CIA for its involvement in purchasing 2 GFM SXP 55 radial forming machines between 1975 and 1977. Image
@tochnyi 5/n SMS Group, ALD, ABP, Siempelkamp and GLAMA USA in 2011 contributed to the full modernisation of the plant, installing a series of new forging presses, in particular, a new SMX 600 radial forging press and also modernised all the furnaces. Image
@tochnyi 6/n There is strong evidence of Electrostal's involvement in manufacturing weapons due to the well-known presence of GFM SXP 55. A careful exploration of the Russian section of the website reveals spare parts of GFM SPX 55 are being sold. Image
@tochnyi 7/n Another concerning aspect is the large number of job vacancies at the plant, including positions for engineers (specialists), and a significant number of experienced or new workers, totalling 43 new open positions. Image
@tochnyi 8/n Electrostal is vital to Russia's war effort, with a rich history in defense production and key radial forging machines. Its specialised steel capabilities and increased job openings indicate a heightened demand for war materials. More details at tochnyi.info/2024/07/russia…
References

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[9]reuters.com/world/europe/p…
themoscowtimes.com/2024/02/02/rus…
astutegroup.com/news/defence/r…
euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/18/mil…
economist.com/europe/2024/07…
cia.gov/readingroom/do…
sms-group.com/plants/referen…
apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA31…

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More from @HartreeFock

Daniele 🇺🇦🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Profile picture
Mar 22
⚡️Engels-2 Airbase strike: Beyond the clouds

1. The recent strike on the Engels-2 Airbase, specifically the attack on the ammunition depots containing the critical KH-101, has been very successful. There are several reasons behind this success, one is:

GEOINTImage
2. Based on the information currently available is possible to understand that the attack was actuated with the use of solely slow-moving drones. The key strength of this system is its ability to change path and follow long elusive trajectories. Image
3. If we analyse the map with some of the key information we gathered in @tochnyi it is possible to see that at very least two AD sites are present. The 2 sites are equipped with S400 operated by the 511th. However, the one further away from the airbase has been emptied (-4 S400) Image
Image
Image
Read 10 tweets
Daniele 🇺🇦🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Profile picture
Jan 24
Are UAV attacks on Russia effective?
1. I’m writing a short thread to address questions from @GrandpaRoy2 and other users from my recent short thread. Please note that my information relies on OSINT data and personal technical knowledge, so take it with a grain of salt.Image
2. The attacks involve specific platforms that have evolved through ongoing efforts to enhance Ukraine's long-range drone capabilities in terms of range, payload, manoeuvrability, and production. Image
3. It's important to recognize that the statistics on UAV strikes within Russian territory are affected by the ongoing advancements in these platforms. This gives Ukraine a gradually improving capability to conduct deeper and more impactful strikes.
Read 19 tweets
Daniele 🇺🇦🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Profile picture
Jan 14
1. Strike on the Bryansk Chemical plant

On 13 January 2025, news accompanied by video about a strike on the Bryansk Chemical plant emerged rapidly. The few videos show explosions in the distance, with no sound of drones, and several hits allegedly reported ATACMS.Image
2. The absence of incoming drones and no air defence is evident. Hits in sequence are followed by larger explosions, indicating a potential ballistic attack. A jet engine noise is heard at 2:12, possibly caused by noise distortion from the explosions.
3. This plant has been under observation for the last few months for a series of reasons, the first is the expansion activities (highlighted in red), which satellite images have captured. This shows a clear change in the landscape, with significant clearing of the area. Image
Read 11 tweets
Daniele 🇺🇦🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Profile picture
Nov 26, 2024
📝 Reaching further and without limits

1. Long-range strike (LRS) weapons have emerged as a critical element in Ukraine’s war strategy, enabling precision strikes on Russian military infrastructure, logistics, and command structures.Image
2. Long-range strike weapons provide strategic impacts beyond the battlefield by targeting critical locations behind enemy lines. Their main functions include counter-population, strategic interdiction, counter-leadership, and counterforce. tochnyi.info/2024/11/reachi…
3. Within a 300 km range, our map highlights numerous high-value targets concentrated along Russia’s western border and adjacent to Ukraine. These include critical ammo depots, such as those near Belgorod and Kursk, which are vital for supplying frontline operations. Image
Image
Read 39 tweets
Daniele 🇺🇦🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Profile picture
Nov 22, 2024
🧵Russian IRBM attack on Dnipro

1. It is always important to let the dust settle before making any analysis in these cases. Regarding the attack on Dnipro, we can say it is highly likely that it is not very significant for the kinetic aspect of the war in Ukraine.
2. In the first hours following the attack, many people, myself included, believed it was an ICBM. However, thanks to @John_A_Ridge and the initial information provided, we can confirm that it was actually an IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile). While this distinction is important, it is also a minor one.Image
3. First and foremost, why is it important to determine whether it was an ICBM or not? Understanding this distinction is crucial for gaining a clearer picture of the motivations behind the attack in the first place. Many agree that the primary reason for the attack was political. Image
Read 9 tweets
Daniele 🇺🇦🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Profile picture
Oct 9, 2024
1/n The 67th Arsenal of GRAU (53° 8’34.42″N 34°57’5.27″E ) successfully strike tonight has been covered in our latest research article on @tochnyi . Let’s have a look together on what it is, and why it is important.

tochnyi.info/2024/10/attack…
2/n the 67th Arsenal of GRAU is what we classify as a class 2 depot. It has mostly Soviet-era buildings and a series of old ECMs. The site is within the 500 km range from the Ukrainian border. Has a vast tree coverage and a substantial surface area. Image
3/n This site is a class 2 due to the presence of Soviet-era ECM highlighted in red. It also shows the presence of large ammunition stocks in open air, highlighted in green, most of these are surrounded by soil embankments. The last feature is the vast use of above ground magazine. These however, are just warehouses with no sign of reinforcement. In some cases, these have minimal to no perimeter walls (highlighted in violet) and are mostly intended to protect ammunition from environmental conditions.Image
Read 4 tweets

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