Post

https://x.com/kamilkazani/status/1724526210435231905

More from @HartreeFock

Daniele 🇺🇦

@HartreeFock

Jun 29

🧨A short post on Nitrocellulose.

1/7 Cotton is crucial for textiles and producing nitrocellulose, a key ingredient in military propellants. Let’s explore the largest cotton producers and how this links to nitrocellulose production for defence.

2/7 🇨🇳China leads the world in cotton production with a production peak in 2022 of 6000 (1000 tonnes), followed by 🇮🇳India and 🇺🇸 the USA. There are also other important producers like Australia, Turkey and Brazil. Check out this chart for a visual comparison of their production volumes.

3/7 🧪 But cotton is a critical precursor for producing nitrocellulose, a key component in smokeless powder, and is also crucial for military explosives and propellants. Used in firearms, artillery, rockets, and pyrotechnics, it offers high energy density, controlled combustion, and stability, making it essential for defence and industry

Read 6 tweets

Daniele 🇺🇦

@HartreeFock

Jun 20

Piercing Russian heavy armor

My latest work is now on @tochnyi website, it wouldn't be possible without the support of the entire team, a special mention to @wendy_dyers for his proofreading, and to @clockworkChris for his marvellous graphics.

tochnyi.info/2024/06/pierci…

1/n Introduction
Understanding the impact of FPV drones on tanks in the Ukrainian war is complex due to several factors. Reliable and comprehensive data is essential but currently limited, with most data coming from Andrew Perpetua and his OSINT team, providing valuable but not exhaustive insights.

The evolving FPV drone technology and tactics by Ukrainian and Russian forces add complexity. Each side continuously develops and refines these drones, making it challenging to assess their impact accurately. Different drone models with various capabilities influence their effectiveness against tanks, leading to constant adaptation of strategies in response to drone threats.

Moreover, the quality of visual data, often from video footage, affects the accurate identification and counting of damaged or destroyed tanks. Poor video quality can lead to misidentification or underreporting, further complicating the assessment.

2/n Toll on Russian tank fleet

The totals amounted to 582 tanks damaged, making this the largest category and indicating that most FPV strikes result in damage rather than destruction or abandonment; 86 tanks were found to be abandoned, a smaller but notable portion, and 148 tanks destroyed; showing that while destruction is less common than damage, it is still a significant result.

The general trend indicates an increase in the number of FPV strikes over time, especially from January to March 2024. Damaged tanks consistently represent the majority of strikes each month. The number of destroyed tanks remains relatively steady, while abandoned tanks vary but also show an increase towards the later months.

Read 12 tweets

Daniele 🇺🇦

@HartreeFock

Jun 18

Long 🧵 on drones 1/n

Since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, drones have slowly taken the front pages. Initially, it was the Bayraktar TB2, which brought a drone directly to the front line for the first time in a large-scale combat operation.

2/n

Analysts across the entire spectrum, from professional and academic to open-source intelligence, have observed the rise of small commercial surveillance drones for reconnaissance and, increasingly, for more kinetic operations.

For the first time in history, we have seen the successful use of naval drones in the role of direct strike assets.

3/n

On the other side, the Russians have strained our belief in modern air defense systems by deploying hundreds of fixed-wing kamikaze drones to saturate the airspace and deplete valuable and scarce missile supplies.

Read 8 tweets

Daniele 🇺🇦

@HartreeFock

Apr 22

FPV Drones: Avdiivka's Western Front (31-04-2024)

The fall of Avdiivka on the 17th of February 2024 is one of the more sobering junctures of the Ukrainian-Russian war. This article intends not to investigate the circumstances which led to the fall of Avdiivka but will try to understand the situation the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) faced there.

Full article:
tochnyi.info/2024/04/fpv-dr…

1/n To explore the progression of FPV drone usage and its impact on the conflict, it is important to understand that the data analyzed within this article is based on geolocated and verified attacks recorded by operators, and released in either edited or unedited versions on Telegram channels. The strikes recorded in this database, despite having been verified and geolocated with extreme care, represent only a portion of all total attacks.

2/n Uncertainty regarding data arises from various factors, one of which is the time constraints associated with editing and distributing each strike. However, by analysing the observed data over an extended period, it is possible to identify trends crucial to understanding this new weapon system and its usage.

Read 18 tweets

Daniele 🇺🇦

@HartreeFock

Mar 24

1/7 We can start with the graphs that depict the strikes on infantry and vehicles. The data is based on information gathered by @AndrewPerpetua and @giK1893 . As I write this thread, the current situation is very different from what I had expected. The current level of use of FPV drones from the Russian side has plummeted in all stats. Ukraine performed nearly the same number of strikes on infantry and vehicles in March, a week ahead of the month's end. This growth is swift, considering the initial numbers and the apparent difficulties observed in December. There is still a week of data to collect, and we will see in the weeks to come if Russia has a backlog of information to release, or if there are simply fewer drones in operation. We will deal with this specific topic at the end.

2/7 The latest data shows that Ukrainian forces have achieved remarkable results when it comes to striking enemy positions, managing to score more hits in less than a month. On the other hand, Russian forces seem to be struggling to keep up. Trenches remain the most hazardous place to be, as they account for a staggering 70.2% of all the strikes conducted so far.

3/7 It Is important to look at the graph below to understand the significance of the data collected. The bar chart displays a month-by-month comparison between Ukrainian and Russian FPV strikes. After a decline in December, which suggested a potential advantage for the Russian forces, a steady growth in Ukrainian strikes is visible. In March, there were 423 more Ukrainian strikes than Russian strikes. This indicates that the Ukrainians are committed to using drones, particularly FPV, to deter the Russian military.

Read 7 tweets

Daniele 🇺🇦

@HartreeFock

Mar 17

FPV usage update 17-03-2024

Data from @AndrewPerpetua and @giK1893, and the support of @tochnyi members.

1/6

In this latest update on FPV drone usage, I have decided to enhance our understanding of the situation by introducing a couple of graphs. These visual aids will shed light on the monthly performance of each side and their efforts in targeting logistical assets.

As we are currently in the middle of the month, it’s noteworthy that Ukrainian forces have shown remarkable performance compared to the Russians. Surprisingly, the Russians are lagging behind in both metrics, particularly in strikes on infantry and vehicles.

This unexpected turn of events is particularly striking in the infantry category, where a significant parity has typically been observed between the two sides, barring exceptions like that of February 2024. If the current trend persists, it will become increasingly apparent that these discrepancies are likely attributed to Russian challenges in deploying an adequate number of drones.

2/6

Data on positions also shows a change, currently in favor of the Ukrainian forces. Looking back, it’s incredible to see such a shift, especially considering their relatively defensive posture. While the data is partial and subject to potential drastic changes, examining previous statistics reveals that this aligns with the overall trend. Trenches are the most frequently targeted positions, accounting for a staggering 70% of total strikes.

3/6

The total number of FPV drones deployed by Ukrainian forces stands at 9155, while Russia has deployed 6422 drones. This growing gap between the two sides indicates a clear shortage of drones, regardless of the underlying reasons. Efforts to validate the data as quadratic have yielded no signs of deviation. Additionally, partial results not factored into defeat are already consistent with past months, affirming the ongoing high level of drone utilization.

Read 6 tweets

Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

Daniele 🇺🇦

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @HartreeFock

Daniele 🇺🇦

Daniele 🇺🇦

Daniele 🇺🇦

Daniele 🇺🇦

Daniele 🇺🇦

Daniele 🇺🇦

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Send Email!