Richard Vereker Profile picture
Jul 24 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1) This month so far, over a quarter of all Lost Russian tanks are the very old T-62 Type! (visually confirmed by @WarSpotting ) 26.5% In this graph I have added this month's losses to a 3-month rolling average by type. Image
2) Looking at the variants of Russian T-62 lost doesn't seem to show much, other than originally they were mostly T-62Ms, and are now more of a mixed bag of everything. Image
3) Before the war, Russia kept some T-62s running to help train tank personnel. Unknown number but perhaps 100. T-62s are cheaper to keep running than more sophisticated types. This created a surge of losses in around October 2023 when first deployed.
4) @HighMarsed recently did a count of Russian tanks left in storage, his Thred on that count is well worth a read.
5) Amongst the caveats with this is that increasingly a lot of Lost Russian tanks are 'unknown Tank' i.e. impossible to say what type of tank it is, this increases the uncertainty about the Propotions of the other losses. Image
6) Russian tank losses, by type in a table. All this data is from the @WarSpotting website. Thank you Warspotting.
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More from @verekerrichard1

Jul 21
1) The MT-LB is Russia's second most numerous IFV/APC. @CovertCabal has just released a YouTube video showing how close Russia's storage bases are to Running out. I thought I would do a Thread about the video, the MT-LB and Russia's losses of them.
2) The Vidio is largely based on a comprehensive count of Russias Storge facilities by @Jonpy99 and numbers/details can be found on his 'Google sheet', most of the photos are from the last 3 months, but some small bases have older photos. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
@Jonpy99 3) The MT-LB which is a Russian abbreviation of 'multi-purpose towing vehicle light armoured' was first introduced by the Soviets in the 1970s, principally to be an artillery tractor, that the gun crew, could hide inside to protect from indirect artillery fire.
Read 24 tweets
Jul 20
1) Russia is Visually Confirmed to have lost 5,544 Infantry Fighting Vehcales and Armerd Personal Careas, IFV/APC. Here is what those losses by type look like over time. A short thread on what's changing. Image
2) All my data is from @warspotting my graphs use the information from their website, and my graphs are different types of equipment % of that month's losses, this enables us to look for changes in the make-up of the Russian equipment.
@WarSpotting My first graph grouped the types into 'families' and then added a 3-month average to smooth out spicks, this is what it would look like without that. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jul 19
1) The Economist magazine has published an article about Russia running low on military equipment, To my surprise they mention me as an open-source analysis. So I thought I would do a thread about it. economist.com/europe/2024/07…
2) The main thrust of the article is that Russian stocks of stored equipment are deep, but not bottomless. And I would agree with that sentiment. I will go further and say that some of the best equipment is near the end of stored equipment.
3) I should say that I mostly look at data that others have gathered, especially when it comes to assessing Russian stored equipment. @Jonpy99 @HighMarsed @CovertCabal are all practically prolific and worth following.
Read 19 tweets
Jul 15
1) Russia's main tracked IFVs are the BMPs, there are 3 basic types, and I take their losses over time from @WarSpotting data, but each of the 3 types has several variants, and tracking those variant losses shows 3 different patterns. A short Thred 1/n Image
2) First, looking at the BMP-1 is the simplest, most of the losses 80-90% were the base modal of BMP-1 (orange). And that has remained so throughout the war. there has been a steady but small number of BMP-1AMs. Recently we have seen a few of the new upgraded BMP-1 765 SB3KDZ, (grey) but very low numbers for now.Image
3) Next up is the BMP-2, most of the losses were the BMP-2(K) (Orange) and a tiny number of BMP-2Ds (gray) and BMP-2(M) both old models. Still, there is also a new upgrade the 675-SB3KDZ, This variant is meant to have extra armour added. Still, some of them do not have it, (Blue and Green), what's happened here is interesting the proportion of these types started rising in the summer of 2023, but peeked in March 2024, at about 1/3 of all BMP-2s. since then the proportion has fallen back down. I don't know why, it could just be a random variation and jump back up soon, or there may be an underlying reason, perhaps on reflection Russia is not happy with it and has stopped making it. It is also possible that Russia has squared a significant amount of BMP-2(K)s from elsewhere and does not have time to upgrade them.Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 7
All of Russia's 5439 AFV/APC/IFV losses over the war, by type. as visually confirmed by @WarSpotting note the strange decline of BMP-1s in the last month, mostly replaced by BMP-2s, It is too soon to tell if it is a trend, but maybe. 1/n Image
Simplifying the date by grouping them together, and adding a 3-month average, and you get this graph. The airmobile have been rare after the first few months of the war, but are now very uncommon. Im surprised that MT-LBs have become more common in last few months. 2/n Image
In this 3-month average graph of BMP losses, you can clearly see the sharp drop in BMP-1s in the last 2 months. 3/n Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 22
For some reason, the losses of Russia's old BMP-1 have declined for 2 months. both in absolute terms and especially as a % of total losses. (BMP-1s are dark blue at the bottom of the chart) some thought is in a Thred 1/n Image
The BMP-1 is an Infantry Fighting Vehicle IFV. able to carry some infantry and has a turret with a small gun. first made in 1966, approximately 20,000 were made in the Soviet Union. It was succeeded by the BMP-2 first made in 1979, which is similar but with a lot of improvements.
Before the war, Russia was only thought to have about 400 operational BMP-1s in the army, with some more in the border force and riot police. and thousands (2,500) in storage.
Read 15 tweets

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